The UFC returns to the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas this weekend, and we’re covering all your MMA betting needs for a highly stacked prelim schedule that is also the final event of 2023.
The UFC odds are live, so let’s jump right into the most noteworthy betting picks for the UFC 296 preliminary card.
Picks Summary
- Bryce Mitchell ML (-225)
- Randy Brown Moneyline (-250)
*All odds from at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Bryce Mitchell vs. Josh Emmett
UFC 296 Featherweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, December 16, 2023 – 09:35 PM ET at T-Mobile Arena
Bryce Mitchell
- Mitchell Pro Record: 16-1-0
- Mitchell KO/TKO Wins: 0
- Mitchell Submission Wins: 9
Fan favorite “Thug Nasty” moved on from his 1-1 record in TUF and went on to win his first six fights in the UFC Octagon. Despite encountering resistance from Topuria in 2022, he regained his winning streak nine months later by narrowly defeating Dan Ige.
Josh Emmett
- Emmett Pro Record: 18-4-0
- Emmett KO/TKO Wins: 6
- Emmett Submission Wins: 2
Josh Emmett was in contention for interim gold against Yair Rodriguez. Still, he ultimately suffered his first-ever submission defeat in the late stages of the second round, thus seeing the end of a five-fight winning streak.
Emmett fought Ilia Topuria in the main event of UFC Jacksonville four months later, but Topuria severely dominated him for twenty-five minutes.
Mitchell vs. Emmett: Fight Tape Analysis
Even though the brief notice will undoubtedly benefit Emmett due to Mitchell’s cardio-intensive approach, I have no qualms about his matchup. He lacks the footwork and striking fundamentals necessary to maintain Mitchell at a distance and the grappling prowess to dominate him as Topuria did.
Emmett must deliver an early knockout shot, but that outcome appears improbable given Mitchell’s fortitude and the fact that Emmett has not achieved a knockout in over 4 years.
UFC 296 Main Event Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing with OddsTrader’s top betting sites has Mitchell as the betting favorite, and it would seem that his acceptance of taking this fight on short notice isn’t swaying the odds whatsoever.
Emmett will turn 39 in a few months, and his technique lacks the necessary level of sophistication to compensate for his diminishing explosiveness. Anticipate Mitchell to outwork him and drag out another unsightly decision victory.
Bryce Mitchell Moneyline: Supporting UFC 296 Facts
- Emmett is on a two-fight losing streak
- Mitchell has 90% of his UFC bouts (86% by submission)
UFC Pick: Mitchell ML (-225) [2.25u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
Randy Brown vs. Muslim Salikhov
UFC 296 Welterweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, December 16, 2023 – 06:10 PM ET at T-Mobile Arena
Randy Brown
- Brown Pro Record: 17-5-0
- Brown KO/TKO Wins: 6
- Brown Submission Wins: 5
Randy Brown, who was among the initial participants of Dana White’s Lookin’ for a Fight, had a disappointing beginning in the UFC, with a record of 6 wins and 4 losses in a period of four years. He now holds a record of 5-1 in his most recent six matches, with his only defeat being against the highly successful Jack Della Maddalena.
Muslim Salikhov
- Salikhov Pro Record: 19-4-0
- Salikhov KO/TKO Wins: 12
- Salikhov Submission Wins: 3
Salikhov of Russia made a spectacular recovery from his initial disappointing appearance in the UFC by securing five consecutive victories, including important triumphs against Zaleski dos Santos and Trinaldo.
Subsequently, he has suffered defeat in two out of three matches, one of which being a unanimous decision loss to Nicolas Dalby in his most recent bout.
Brown vs. Salikhov: Fight Tape Analysis
Despite having over eight years of experience in the Octagon, Brown still struggles to utilize his extraordinary physical attributes effectively. It is concerning to face a skilled striker like Salikhov, especially considering that we have witnessed his dominant victories over opponents boasting a similar stature.
However, it is important to note that Salikhov, approaching age 40, is evidently experiencing the physical effects of aging. Brown maintains a moderate speed; nevertheless, pursuing someone with such a long and lean physique requires a significant amount of energy, particularly considering that Brown may resort to the clinch as a backup strategy if necessary.
UFC 296 Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds with OddsTrader’s top sportsbooks have placed Brown as a significant betting favorite, and it’s hard to disagree.
Salikhov will have a height disadvantage of four inches and a reach disadvantage of eight inches compared to Brown. Assuming the Russian fighter fails to eliminate him in the early stages, it is likely that Brown will employ a combination of long-range strikes and effective defensive tactics along the fence to achieve a victory by decision.
Randy Brown Moneyline: Supporting UFC 296 Facts
- Brown owns an eight-inch reach advantage
- Salikhov is 40 years old
- Brown has won 4 of his previous 5 fights
UFC Pick: Brown ML (-250) [2.50u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
