The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to Great Britain for a fight card stacked with UK talent, including back-to-back championship bouts at the top of the bill.
Christian Leroy Duncan, Gregory Rodrigues, Paddy Pimblett, and King Green will do battle in two main card bangers before the title fights, and I see some serious betting value up for grabs.
Let’s waste no more time and dive into my UFC 304 main card best bets, analysis, and MMA predictions.
Picks Summary
- Christian Leroy Duncan ML (-135) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Paddy Pimblett ML (+100) at Bet365
Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Gregory Rodrigues
UFC 304 Middleweight Main Card Bout
Saturday, July 27, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Co-Op Live
Christian Leroy Duncan
One of the freshest faces on the middleweight prospects list is England’s own Christian Leroy Duncan. Shortened to “CLD,” this 29-year-old British native has garnered a 3-1 record since debuting at UFC 286, and most impressively, all three of his octagon successes arrived by knockout within two rounds.
- CLD Pro MMA Record: 10-1
- CLD KOs: 8
- CLD Submissions: 1
Gregory Rodrigues
CLD’s weekend opponent, Gregory Rodrigues, has a glaringly obvious trait to his weekend foe… Finishing ability! The Brazilian returns in hopes of extending back-to-back wins inside the distance, and overall, just two of his eight UFC bouts to date managed to reach the judges’ scorecards.
- Rodrigues Pro MMA Record: 15-5
- Rodrigues KOs: 9
- Rodrigues Submissions: 4
Duncan vs. Rodrigues: Fight Tape Analysis
Rodrigues is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt under Henrique Machado, and the obvious path to victory for him would be to press CLD against the cage, force this fight to the ground, and outclass the UK prospect in the lone area where he’s going to struggle.
The problem with this clear and simplistic route to victory is that “Robocop” loves to exchange strikes and go to war on the feet with his opponents. This doesn’t suggest that Rodrigues is a terrible striker; he certainly owns fight-ending power, but as Armen Petrosyan did, grappling is the blueprint to beating CLD; it’s just a shame that we cannot trust him to make the right in-cage decisions.
Speed, technical striking ability, and youthful vigor all side with CLD, and his offensive striking prowess have been a roadblock for every UFC middleweight that’s stepped to him in a striking battle thus far.
UFC 304 Main Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing with OddsTrader’s top sportsbooks has closely lined this fight, with CLD entering the main card as a slight betting favorite at -135.
In a card overflowing with juiced prices, CLD is showing some respectable value. Fight ending inside the distance is a great parlay piece. Still, for straight-up moneyline wagers, it’s difficult to ignore all the variables that side with CLD, including the fact that Rodrigues’ adoration for striking battles has cost him three KO/TKO losses in the past, and the British brute has won all but two of his pro-MMA wins via knockout.
UFC Pick: Christian Leroy Duncan ML (-135) [1.35u returns 1u profit] at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Paddy Pimblett vs. King Green
UFC 304 Lightweight Main Card Bout
Saturday, July 27, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Co-Op Live
Paddy Pimblett
“Paddy the Baddy” needs little introduction. Since joining the UFC, he’s collected five straight wins, and although the level of competition hasn’t been top-tier, an outspoken and flamboyant personality has assisted him in becoming one of the United Kingdom’s biggest stars.
- Pimblett Pro MMA Record: 21-3-0
- Pimblett KOs: 5
- Pimblett Submissions: 10
King Green
King Green (Formerly Bobby) called for Pimblett following his dominant win over Jim Miller at UFC 300 this past April. This manifestation worked out for the 25-fight UFC vet. While legally renaming yourself ‘King’ feels ironic ahead of his visit to the UK, he’ll undoubtedly be the biggest challenge for Paddy’s fan-favorite crown.
- Green Pro MMA Record: 32-15-1
- Green KOs: 11
- Green Submissions: 9
Pimblett vs. Green: Fight Tape Analysis
Paddy has thrived as a professional mixed martial artist behind a strong grappling game. BJJ is the Liverpudlians’ forte, but he’s never shied away from unleashing those hands when necessary.
Speaking of hands, Green’s long-time experience has evolved his boxing to a level that most mid to low-tier UFC lightweights cannot handle. He’s such a difficult and awkward style to figure out, and for the most part, only the promotions elite or powerful have been able to overcome what the veteran brings to the octagon.
Green has never-ending cardio and is difficult to take down. Overall, there’s no denying that the American is significantly more versatile and skilled, but he lacks finishing ability and true punching power. If this fight remains standing, we’ll see Paddy throw strikes like a madman possessed, and every pop will cause a reaction from the crowd and influence the judge’s damage factor.
Paddy’s speed will likely be a factor, and while I believe he’d lost this fight five times out of ten, it’s difficult to fade the English favorite when a losing result would be very frustrating for the trajectory the UFC has him on. Bobby would need knockdowns and authoritative results to secure the dub, and with this fight taking place in Manchester, I don’t see him claiming victory without a stoppage win.
UFC 304 Main Card Odds & Prediction
You can grab the Pimblett moneyline at +100 UFC odds. The Scouser has a durability that the likes of Green won’t test, making the visitor’s life much more challenging when attempting to collect a win.
The UFC made this fight for a reason, and although Green is the better mixed martial artist, I have a funny feeling in my stomach that the 38-year-old won’t have enough to convince the biased judges or find a finish. I don’t regularly follow gut feelings, and Paddy’s downfall will come; it just isn’t King Green on UK soil.
UFC Pick: Paddy Pimblett ML (+100) [1u returns 1u profit] at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
