The UFC is back in Sin City for a monumental event celebrating Mexican combat sports, and I’m here covering all your betting needs for a one-off Las Vegas Sphere fight card stacked with top-ranked talent from top to bottom.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into the most noteworthy betting picks for the UFC 306 (Aka Noche UFC) preliminary card bouts.
Picks Summary
- Bahamondes ML (+105) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Rosas Jr. By Submission (-155) at Bet365
Manuel Torres vs. Ignacio Bahamondes
UFC 306 Lightweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, September 14, 2024 – 07:30 PM ET at the Sphere
Manuel Torres
Aged 27 at the time, Manuel Torres booked his position on the UFC lightweight roster following a vicious KO/TKO stoppage on Dana White’s Contender Series. While he hasn’t performed as often as we’d like to see from a promising prospect, he’s now 29 and has won three consecutive bouts in the octagon, all obtained by knockout or submission.
2024 is potentially Torres’s breakout year. He returns at Noche UFC following a round-one submission win over Chris Duncan earlier this year. However, he hasn’t fought at a high level outside of the first round, thus placing a serious question mark on his long-term capabilities.
- Torres Pro Record: 15-2
- Torres KO/TKO Wins: 7
- Torres Submission Wins: 7
Ignacio Bahamondes
Ignacio Bahamondes would be large middleweight or welterweight, but this 6’3” Chilian savage has decided to compete at 155lbs as a lightweight. This makes him the biggest lightweight in the UFC, and although he’s two of his six UFC appearances to date, he’s only 27 and still growing, as a huge size advantage could pay dividends in his bouts moving forward.
- Bahamondes Pro Record: 15-5
- Bahamondes KO/TKO Wins: 10
- Bahamondes Submission Wins: 1
Torres vs. Bahamondes: Fight Tape Analysis
With twenty-five stoppage wins between them, It’s no secret that Torres and Bahamondes are the epitome of violence. They equally bring the heat every time they step into the octagon. While the under 2½ rounds is juiced at the sportsbooks, it’s probably a safe parlay piece to approach as it’s anticipated that these men will brutalize one another.
Bahamondes is so large that breaking the distance between him is a struggle. His variety of strikes is typically the most lethal, including front kicks, push kicks, spinning wheel kicks, elbows, knees, and every damaging strike in between.
Similarly, Torres is a blood-hungry savage. As mentioned, he hasn’t left the first round in six years, and this is thanks to a bulldozing style out of the gate, where he’s happy to throw fight-ending power on the fight or snatch a submission.
UFC 306 Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
Interestingly, while undefeated in the UFC thus far, Bahamondes could rock and hurt Torres last time out, and those who’ve found the most success against him have notably been larger in height and reach. This points towards a significant advantage for Bahamondes, an absolute giant. While we should expect a nervy barn-burner, the underdog has proven himself across 15 minutes and can deliver late punishment should he avoid the early onslaught.
The UFC pricing makes Bahamondes an underdog at +105. Still, his technical skills, size, striking volume, and finishing potential aren’t being respected versus an opponent that’s only been tested versus incredibly low levels of competition.
UFC Pick: Bahamondes ML (+105) [1u returns 1.05u profit] at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Aoriqileng
UFC 306 Bantamweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, September 14, 2024 – 07:30 PM ET at the Sphere
Raul Rosas Jr.
If there’s one clear Mexican star on the Noche UFC fight that that company would love to build, it’s the 19-year-old teenage sensation Raul Rosas Jr.
Rosas Jr. has had a beautiful run thus despite losing one of his four UFC appearances. He’s submitted and knocked out fellow prospects with many more years of experience, and with such a domineering ground game and punching power, his future in the promotion is looking bright.
- Rosas Pro Record: 9-1
- Rosas KO/TKO Wins: 2
- Rosas Submission Wins: 6
Aoriqileng
Aoriqileng is the perfect veteran to feed a star you want to build. He’s been competing as a professional martial artist for the last decade, and with 36 bouts to his name, adding his name to the prospect’s resume isn’t a bad look whatsoever.
Is Aoriqileng a lamb to the slaughter like many believe though? A 3-3-1 UFC record is underwhelming, and the beating he took from Daniel Marcos also points towards some smart matchmaking by the UFC, who certainly aren’t putting their golden boy at risk.
- Aoriqileng Pro Record: 25-1,1
- Aoriqileng KO/TKO Wins: 8
- Aoriqileng Submission Wins: 1
Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Aoriqileng: Fight Tape Analysis
As the biggest betting favorite at UFC 306, picking Rosas Jr. to win isn’t a groundbreaking move. However, if there’s one aspect of Ariqileng’s game we can respect, it’s his punching power and his solid chin over a 36-fight career. With only one loss via KO/TKO, he’s proven to have respectable durability, and as a career grappler, it would be surprising to see Rosas Jr. knock him out on the feet.
That said, is a standup needed or required? The game plan for Rosas Jr. should be clear, as his opponent’s best path to victory stems from a striking war. Therefore, return to what you know best and grapple the hell out of this man.
If Jay Perrin can drag Aoriqileng to the mat, I have no doubt that a young, energetic Rosas Jr., with the pride of Mexico running through his veins, can swarm his Chinese opponent with sufficient takedown attempts before, eventually, he finds a neck and demonstrates why Dana White and the UFC are placing a lot of hope in his potential.
UFC 306 Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds make Rosas Jr. the biggest betting favorite, but we aren’t interested in the moneyline. With his simplest path to the early night being in the BJJ realm, expect the rising Mexican star to have his way on the ground before an older, more lethargic Aoriqileng eventually makes a mistake where he’s forced to tap.
Rosas Jr. By Submission: Supporting UFC 306 Facts
- In 8 of Rosas Jr.’s nine pro-MMA bouts, he’s won by submission or KO/TKO
- Rosas Jr. has won 2 of his 3 UFC wins by submission
- Aoriqileng has lost by submission on three occasions
UFC Pick: Rosas Jr. By Submission (-155) [1.55u returns 1u profit] at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
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