It’s been fourteen months since the UFC last touched down in Utah, but the Beehive State is in for a treat this weekend as UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree lands at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City.
As always, I’m back, covering all your betting needs for this Utah fight card stacked with top-ranked talent from top to bottom. Let’s waste no more time and dive right into the most noteworthy betting picks for the UFC 307 preliminary card bouts.
Picks Summary
- Almeida/Potieria Under 1.5 Rounds (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
- Carla Esparza by Decision (+200) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Ihor Potieria vs. Cesar Almeida
UFC 307 Middleweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, October 05, 2024 – 06:30 PM ET at Delta Center
Ihor Potieria
Ihor Potieria has lost three of his previous four bouts by knockout or submission, and he’s 2-4 in the promotion overall. Why is he still an active member of the UFC middle roster? I have no idea because, to keep it brutally honest, he’s one of the top five worst 185-pounders on the roster, and it would seem the UFC is using him as nothing more than a layup fight for rising contenders.
- Potieria Pro Record: 21-6-0
- Potieria KO/TKO Wins: 9
- Potieria Submission Wins: 7
Cesar Almeida
Speaking of fighters needing a layup, in step Cesar Almeida. The former GLORY kickboxing champion and the man known for defeating Alex Pereira twice as a kickboxer was pushed too quickly last time out, as Roman Kopylov shattered his unblemished 5-0 MMA record.
The UFC is backtracking and realising that they have another fierce kickboxer with star potential on their hands. Instead of giving him a difficult fight, they’re handing him a fighter who’ll be willing to trade and is arguably one of the worst middleweights in the company.
- Almeida Pro Record: 5-1
- Almeida KO/TKO Wins: 4
- Almeida Submission Wins: 0
Potieria vs. Almeida: Fight Tape Analysis
Here’s the kicker: almost every one of Almeida’s opponents to date has desperately hunted for takedowns. Kopylov was the only one who found success with it. Still, to avoid another spoiler, UFC matchmakers have gifted the Brazilian knockout artist with a fighter who owns a 0% takedown rate.
Potieria looked good against a washed-up Shogun Rua, but outside of that, he’s struggled to defeat even the lowest level of competition. He loves to strike; grappling isn’t his game, and that’s great until you meet a championship-level kickboxer like Almeida.
Almeida has such crisp boxing; he keeps everything tight and precise, and with a calm presence in the octagon, he won’t rush into a firefight. That said, his counter-striking is fierce, and if Potieria does what he’s done in the past and rushes into the pocket with wilding strikes, he’ll be met with a fight-ending punch and, most likely, his walking papers out of the organization.
UFC 307 Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing with our top-rated sportsbooks makes Almeida a large betting favorite, and there’s no chance I’m betting a fighter with six pro fights at -300 and beyond. However, I do believe he’s in a perfect position to collect his fifth knockout in six fights, and as Potieria has no chill, I expect this result to arrive a lot sooner than the middle of the second round.
To avoid the juice, we can back the under 1 ½ rounds, surprisingly listed at -155 with Caesars Sportsbook. Almeida picked up a knockout win over Dylan Budka in under 1.5 rounds. Potieria has lost under 1.5 rounds in 2 of his previous UFC bouts against much lesser-threatening knockout artists.
UFC Pick: Almeida/Potieria Under 1.5 Rounds (-115) [1.15u returns 1u profit] at Caesars Sportsbook
Under 1 ½ Rounds: Supporting UFC 307 Facts
- Potieria has lost in round 1 or 2 in all four of his UFC losses.
- Almeida has won by KO in 4 of his 5 pro-MMA wins.
- Almeida won his UFC debut in under 1.5 rounds.
Carla Esparza vs. Tecia Pennington
UFC 307 Women’s Strawweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, October 05, 2024 – 06:30 PM ET at Delta Center
Carla Esparza
Former women’s strawweight champion and TUF winner Carla Esparza is gearing up for once more dance. As a mother and family, she’s announced that her fourteen-year professional career will end at UFC 307, as she’ll make her final walk to the octagon, win or lose.
Known for a mauling wrestling offense, Esparza has finished the likes of Xiaonan Yan and defeated Rose Namajunas to become champion. Regarding women’s strawweights, she’s fought the who’s who of the sport. To see her priced as an underdog, despite having one foot out the door, is surprising, especially when she has nothing to lose.
- Esparza Pro Record: 19-7-0
- Esparza KO/TKO Wins: 3
- Esparza Submission Wins: 5
Tecia Pennington
Tecia Pennington has much in common with her weekend opponent. She’s also a UFC veteran with 10 years of experience in the promotion and a resume that includes many well-known names. She’s also a mother now, and although retirement hasn’t been announced, you can’t help but think the 35-year-old might be contemplating her career choices, particularly if Esparza extends her losing streak to three consecutive.
- Pennington Pro Record: 13-7-0
- Pennington KO/TKO Wins: 1
- Pennington Submission Wins: 1
Esparza vs. Pennington: Fight Tape Analysis
The fact that Pennington has been training in a championship-level fight camp with her partner and co-main event competitor Raquel Pennington could provide her with the perfect preparation to end Esparza’s career on a sad note. However, while she owns a respected striking game with high output and excellent cardio, one of her flaws has been takedown defense and grappling situations, and this feels like the perfect style for the wrestling-heavy Esparza to exploit.
There’s no denying that if Esparza stays standing, she’ll get completely outclassed across three rounds. That said, as it’d be the dumbest game plan, we must believe she will spam takedowns in every round until she’s comfortably in top control.
What’s interesting about Esparza’s metrics is her offensive takedown numbers. She holds some of the most impressive takedown percentages in divisional history, and even in defeat, she’s managed at least one takedown in every UFC fight, but one! When you watch Tecia get dragged to the ground by the likes of Angela Hill, I think this sentiment alone speaks volumes, especially if you know the disparity in skill level between Esparza and Hill’s wrestling credentials.
UFC 307 Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
I like the +150 moneyline price on Esparza, but I’m greedy, especially when 8 of her 10 UFC wins to date were by decision, and she’s gone the distance in 12 overall. Pennington has also gone the distance in 14 of her 16 UFC bouts, so Esparza by decision for +200 looks tasty.
The UFC odds have placed Tecia Pennington as a moderate betting favorite, and honestly, I have no idea why. Pennington feels like a tailor-made opponent for wrestlers, and Esparza is one of the best wrestlers in women’s strawweight history.
Need I say more?
UFC Pick: Carla Esparza by Decision (+200) [1u returns 2u profit] at Bet365
Esparza by Decision: Supporting UFC 307 Facts
- 80% of Esparza’s UFC wins were by decision.
- Pennington has gone the distance In 78% of her 16 UFC bouts to date.
- All 7 of Pennington’s UFC losses were by decision.
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
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