The UFC travels to Abu Dhabi this weekend, and we’re covering all your betting needs for a UAE fight card stacked with top-ranked talent from top to bottom.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into the most noteworthy betting picks for the UFC 308 preliminary card bouts.
Picks Summary
- Cerqueira ML (-110)
- Magomedov ML (-138)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Ibo Aslan vs. Rafael Cerqueira
UFC 308 Heavyweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, October 26, 2024 – 10:00 AM ET at the Etihad Arena
Ibo Aslan
Who doesn’t love a heavy-handed, heavyweight knockout artist? I know I do, and that’s likely the reason for Ibo Aslan’s level of hype entering UFC 308 this weekend. Sadly, like many fighters who heavily push for the knockout, he can tire quickly and lose his best chance of victory.
- Aslan Pro Record: 13-1
- Aslan KO/TKO Wins: 13
- Aslan Submission Wins: 0
Rafael Cerqueira
Brazil’s Rafael Cerqueira, reminiscent of his weekend opponent, has been a can crusher for most of his career. There are always concerns about fighters with limited resumes making their UFC debut without much fight tape to go by, but with Jailton Almeida as a training partner, don’t be surprised if “The Lion” can make a statement.
- Cerqueira Pro Record: 11-0
- Cerqueira KO/TKO Wins: 8
- Cerqueira Submission Wins: 2
Aslan vs. Cerqueira: Fight Tape Analysis
Aslan will throw knockout punch after knockout punch. Hooks, haymakers, whatever is available and capable of deeming his opponent unconscious, he’s all in. It’s worked quite well thus far, with all 13 of his wins coming by knockout, but this isn’t the style that’s going to reach the top ranks of the heavyweight division, and although his fight tape is limited, Cerqueira seems a lot more patient, cardio worthy, and well rounded.
Aslan’s lack of fundamentals and technical approach, such as head movement, footwork, and octagon awareness, coupled with questionable cardio, doesn’t strike me as a prospect-worthy fighter like his knockout record may suggest.
The kickboxing of Cerqueira is nice. With elbows, flying knees, and a varied range of strikes, he will present an unpredictable style, and he’ll undoubtedly be faster to punch. We watched Aslan get styled on by Anton Turkalj – his lone UFC win to date – and although he won that bout, he had previously surrendered his first meeting with Turkalj due to grappling deficiencies.
UFC 308 Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
As the more patient and calculated fighter who’ll likely have the cardio edge, we cannot ignore the potential of Cerqueira. The rigid brawling style of Aslan will crush cans, but I don’t believe this is one of those spots. I wouldn’t be surprised if Cerqueira also had a sneaky grappling, having trained with one of the best grapplers at heavyweight, Jailton Almeida, and I also won’t be surprised to see him as the more successful striker of the two.
The UFC odds opened the line favoring Aslan, but money has since come in on Cerqueira to level the odds. I’m not surprised, and I’ll be fading the one-dimensional knockout artist versus an opponent that’s never been knocked out and undeniably owns a more trustworthy skill set.
UFC Pick: Cerqueira ML (-110) [1.10u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
Abus Magomedov vs. Brunno Ferreira
UFC 308 Middleweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, October 26, 2024 – 10:00 AM ET at the Etihad Arena
Abus Magomedov
Russian-born German representative Abus Magomedov was truly thrown into the deep end upon his arrival in the middleweight division. In his debut, he made light work of Dustin Stoltzfus, but back-to-back fights against Sean Strickland and Caio Borralho were clearly a jump too far.
However, we shouldn’t let these high-level matchups overshadow what he’s capable of, especially now that the competition level at UFC 308 has taken a dramatic downturn.
- Magomedov Pro Record: 26-6-1
- Magomedov KO/TKO Wins: 14
- Magomedov Submission Wins: 6
Brunno Ferreira
Brazil’s Brunno Ferreira, much like Ibo Aslan, has had to rely on serious punching power to collect an impressive pro-MMA record to date. He’s a monster in striking exchanges, and with all three wins under the UFC banner coming by way of knockout and all 13 of his pro bouts being won inside the distance, it’s no surprise that there’s a level of hype behind his name.
- Ferreira Pro Record: 12-1-0
- Ferreira KO/TKO Wins: 9
- Ferreira Submission Wins: 3
Magomedov vs. Ferreira: Fight Tape Analysis
As previously highlighted, Ferreira is all about that power, and trust me, if he connects flush, most opponents will sleep quicker than they can say ‘nap time.’ Unfortunately, outside of a brawling style and insane power, he’s shown worrying cardio, a lack of fights outside of the first round, and a chin that’s been compromised.
In contrast, Magomedov has displayed versatility throughout his career. His kicks will be perfect at keeping the smaller man at range, and as the Brazilian eats kicks to the body, he’ll fatigue. At the same time, the tall frame of Magomedov will have the advantage in distance striking, and should Ferreira rush the pocket, he’ll be open for takedowns and enter a grappling realm where he’ll also be at a disadvantage.
UFC 308 Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
The gameplan for Magomedov isn’t complicated; he has to keep Ferreira at range, avoid exchanging in the pocket, and remove the Brazilian’s lunching hooks and haymakers, which he thrives on through up-close counter striking.
With this approach combined with his grappling upside, I really do believe it’s Magomedov’s fight to lose. Ferreira has one clear path to victory, but he’s facing an opponent who will certainly hold a huge edge outside the first round, striking at a distance and during grounded situations.
The UFC pricing with OddsTrader’s top sportsbooks is perfect, as the moneyline value is good enough, so we don’t need to approach any props. Take Magomedov to win outright, and don’t be surprised if he finds a round two or three stoppage here.
Magomedov ML: Supporting UFC 308 Facts
- Ferreira has fought outside the first round in just 2 of his pro-MMA bouts
- Magomedov has finished 20 of his 25 wins inside the distance
- Magomedov has lost just 2 of his 32 pro-MMA bouts in round 1
UFC Pick: Magomedov ML (-138) [1u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-Gambler
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
