The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to the Big Apple as Madison Square Garden prepares to host with an absolute banger of a fight card!
Charles Oliveira, Michael Chandler, Bo Nickal, and Paul Craig are involved in two main card bouts, and I’m seeing some serious betting value up for grabs.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into my favorite UFC 309 main card analysis and predictions.
Picks Summary
- Oliveira & Under 2.5 Rounds (-115)
- Nickal & Under 1.5 Rounds (-188)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
UFC 309 Event Information
- Date & Time: Saturday, November 16, 2024 – 06:00 PM ET
- Location: Madison Square Garden, New York
- Scheduled Fights: 13
- Main Event: Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic (UFC Heavyweight Title Bout)
Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler
UFC 309 Lightweight Co-Main Event Bout
Charles Oliveira
When Charles “Do Bronx” Oliveira is scheduled to fight… we pay attention! Many MMA diehards would argue he’s a bigger draw than this weekend’s main event, and I wouldn’t argue that sentiment. The former lightweight titlist with the most stoppage wins (KO/Submissions) in UFC history has etched his name into the history books, and this upcoming rematch is one we’ll happily welcome after witnessing the brutality of the first scrap.
- Oliveira Pro MMA Record: 34-10
- Oliveira KOs: 10
- Oliveira Submissions: 21
Michael Chandler
Poor Michael Chandler. He has spent years on the sidelines waiting to fight Conor McGregor, only for the famed Irishman to pull out multiple times and leave him waiting with no red panty night in sight. Fortunately, ‘Iron’ is tired of waiting, and there’s no better return fight than to run it back with Oliveira as they attempt to replicate one of the most entertaining fights of the last decade.
- Chandler Pro MMA Record: 23-8
- Chandler KOs: 11
- Chandler Submissions: 7
Oliveira vs. Chandler: Fight Tape Analysis
He’s explosive, incredibly powerful, an elite wrestler, and has entertained the masses in every UFC contest he’s taken part in. But here’s my problem: Chandler, while sitting on the sidelines, is now facing a man who ran through Beneil Dariush and took the division’s No.1 contender, Arman Tsarukyan, to a split decision.
We know that Oliveira’s wrestling defense, outside of Islam Makhachev, has been impeccable, and his Brazilian jiu-jitsu has claimed more submission wins than any other UFC competitor in history. Then, you add in Do Bronx’s evolution in his striking game that finished Chandler in the second round in the first fight, and things aren’t looking positive for the former Bellator champion.
Chandler opting for a wrestling game plan isn’t in his best interests as he’s never really proven to have the cardio to achieve this for five rounds. He came close to finishing Oliveira in the first fight. Still, it’s hard not to believe that his meat hooks and aggressive nature on the feet will cost him valuable cardio once again versus the always-durable Do Bronx, who KO/TKO hasn’t finished in 14 consecutive UFC bouts.
UFC 309 Main Card Odds & Prediction
It’s a first-round or bust situation for Chandler, as it has been for most of his career. The UFC odds place him as a significant underdog for a reason, and I’m siding with the oddsmakers.
Oliveira is dangerous in all aspects of MMA and has two clear advantages: cardio and durability. When the early stoppage in round one doesn’t arrive for Chandler, Do Bronx will go to work and finish a 38-year-old who shouldn’t be attempting to remove ring rust against one of the most dangerous finishers in UFC history.
UFC Pick: Oliveira & Under 2.5 Rounds (-115) [1u returns 1.15u profit] at Bet365
Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig
UFC 309 Middleweight Main Card Bout
Bo Nickal
As a two-time Div-1 collegiate wrestling champion, Bo Nickal transitioned to professional mixed martial arts with a huge advantage and has paid dividends thus far. He’s become the UFC’s middleweight Golden Boy, and with three straight wins, all of which ended in the first or second, he’s proven to hold the potential of becoming a superstar of the future at 185lbs.
- Nickal Pro MMA Record: 6-0
- Nickal KOs: 2
- Nickal Submissions: 4
Paul Craig
Scotland’s Paul Craig, despite owning an undesirable 9-8-1 UFC record with a career involving inconsistent results, will be the most experienced opponent Nickal has faced to date, and his three most recent wins in the octagon did position him as a betting underdog pre-fight.
However, will Craig’s jiu-jitsu prowess really be enough to match Nickal, one of the promotion’s most dangerous hype trains at the moment?
- Craig Pro MMA Record: 17-8-1
- Craig KOs: 4
- Craig Submissions: 13
Nickal vs. Craig: Fight Tape Analysis
A long list of accomplished UFC fighters can implement an offensive wrestling game plan and dominate on the ground. However, very few offer Nickal’s credentials and possess the ability to secure takedowns in open space, against the cage, and in almost every position where a takedown is viable. This makes him a huge threat at middleweight, where elite wrestling hasn’t held the gold since Chris Weidman.
Craig’s limited skill set, slow pace, and questionable durability don’t offer Nickal just one clear path to victory. The undefeated product of American Top Team has also displayed his willingness to throw hands—see Val Woodburn’s bout—and as Craig’s best chance to score an upset likely stems from his BJJ, avoiding ground situations is a possible scenario where the younger, more powerful, and dynamic athlete could certainly add another knockout win to his resume.
UFC 309 Main Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing with OddsTraders’ top sportsbooks places Bo Nickal as the biggest betting favorite on the UFC 309 card, and it’s hard to disagree with this 92% implied probability.
Of course, you can never say never in mixed martial arts. Still, it’s safe to say that nine times out of time, Bo’s elite wrestling credentials present him with a huge advantage, particularly versus a lower-level and aging opponent.
Proclaiming Bo Nickal’s expected dominance over Craig isn’t groundbreaking information. Still, I can assist you in finding value by supporting the expectation that this contest will end within the first seven minutes.
Unlike Bo’s previous opponent, Cody Brundage, Craig doesn’t have the wrestling chops or durability to survive beyond 1.5 rounds, in my opinion. Brundage may have broken the 1.5 mark last time, but expect Bo’s round-one stoppage streak to continue this weekend as he faces an opponent that’s suffered several round-one stoppage losses throughout his career.
UFC Pick: Nickal & Under 1.5 Rounds (-188) [1.88 returns 1u profit] at Bet365
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