The UFC makes its yearly visit to Madison Square Garden this weekend, and we’re covering all your betting needs for a New York fight card stacked with top-ranked talent from top to bottom, including a battle of legends in the main event between Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into the most noteworthy betting picks for the UFC 309 preliminary card bouts.
Picks Summary
- Veronica Hardy Moneyline (-150)
- Jhonata Diniz Moneyline (+125)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Veronica Hardy vs. Eduarda Moura
UFC 309 Women’s Strawweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, November 16, 2024 – 06:00 PM ET at Madison Square Garden
Veronica Hardy
With a 4-4 UFC record and 7-4-1 overall, it’s understandable that many onlookers will be cautious of Veronica Hardy. You cannot deny the 29-year-old’s evolution of late. She was perhaps ushered into the UFC at an early age. Still, after a three-year layoff starting in 2020, she has returned to the octagon and won three consecutive bouts, two of which were undeniable unanimous victory wins.
- Hardy Pro Record: 9-4-1
- Hardy KO/TKO Wins: 1
- Hardy Submission Wins: 2
Eduarda Moura
On paper, Eduarda Moura is the fighter you’d want to get behind, right? Firstly, she’s Brazilian, which is always a plus. Secondly, she holds a 10-1 pro-MMA record and has collected nine KO/TKO or submission wins from those ten successes. Then you realize her only UFC win was against a lackluster opponent, and her most recent trip to the octagon resulted in a split-decision loss to Denis Gomes, and that’s why she enters UFC 309 as a betting underdog.
- Moura Pro Record: 10-1-0
- Moura KO/TKO Wins: 4
- Moura Submission Wins: 5
Hardy vs. Moura: Fight Tape Analysis
Accepting the proposal to marry former UFC fighter and world-renowned analyst Dan Hardy might have been the best career move for Veronica Hardy. When you’re fighting under the tutelage of one of the brightest minds in MMA, it has to help, right? Based on recent results, Hardy’s game planning and overall skill set have witnessed a boost, and it’s obvious that Dan’s focus on his wife is a huge assistance.
Moura has, for the most part, relied heavily on takedowns and ground control throughout her career. This one-dimensional style isn’t favorable, particularly when her previous UFC bout and first career loss displayed cardio concerns and poor decision-making in attempting takedowns when they weren’t easily available.
Whenever Hardy steps into the cage, she looks better than her last fight. Aged just 29, expect this evolution to continue, and her takedown defense should be crucial in this contest. With the potential of keeping this fight standing, I expect her to outperform her opponent in the striking numbers, thus leading to her fourth straight UFC win.
UFC 309 Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing with OddsTrader’s top sportsbooks has placed Hardy as the betting favorite, but the current moneyline price isn’t holding enough juice to scare us off. The -150 price is fair, and considering the aforementioned factors, it’s a no-brainer to pick Hardy in this spot.
UFC Pick: Hardy ML (-150) [1.5u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
Marcin Tybura vs. Jhonata Diniz
UFC 309 Heavyweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, November 16, 2024 – 06:00 PM ET at Madison Square Garden
Marcin Tybura
Poland’s Marcin Tybura is a household name in the UFC heavyweight division, but there’s no denying his journeyman status. He’s the gatekeeper to beat for up-and-coming heavyweights. Although a 12-8 UFC isn’t horrible, we’re looking at a fighter who’s approaching his forties and won’t be bringing anything we haven’t seen to the octagon already.
- Tybura Pro Record: 25-9
- Tybura KO/TKO Wins: 8
- Tybura Submission Wins: 8
Jhonata Diniz
Two appearances and two wins have presented Jhonata Diniz with the perfect start to his UFC career. The former world-level kickboxer entered the promotion with many question marks around his grappling ability, but so far, so good. We can’t judge his overall ceiling just yet, but a victory over Marcin Tybura will give an inkling while also giving the Brazilian newcomer a boost up the rankings.
- Diniz Pro Record: 8-0
- Diniz KO/TKO Wins: 7
- Diniz Submission Wins: 0
Tybura vs. Diniz: Fight Tape Analysis
This fight presents a striker versus grappler situation. The latter, Tybura, needs a takedown, or he will suffer against the lifelong kickboxer. So, the question is: Can Diniz’s takedown defense hold up?
Tybura is a well-rounded fighter, and his offensive wrestling and top control have assisted him in winning fights in the past. However, after watching Diniz defend the takedowns of Karl Williams inside the smaller Fight Night cage, a fighter undeniably a greater wrestling talent than Tybura, we must believe he can accomplish the same inside the big cage.
Moreover, Diniz isn’t going to rush the contest and make mistakes. He’s undefeated as a pro for a reason, and one of those reasons is due to a calculated kickboxing, where he’ll pick his shots on the feet, keep a low stance to prevent unsuspecting shots, and he also has knockout potential for good measure.
UFC 309 Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds have positioned Tybura as the betting favorite, and outside of UFC experience, I have no reason to believe these odds are justifiable.
Diniz will have the space to work his striking game inside the big octagon while avoiding clinch and grappling scenarios. I don’t believe Tybura lacks the open mat takedown skill, and his offensive striking will pale in comparison to the world-class strikers Diniz is accustomed to fighting.
UFC Pick: Diniz ML (+125) [1u returns 1.25u profit] at Bet365
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
