The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to the octagon for one final pay-per-view of the year, and this highly anticipated event in Las Vegas is delivering an absolute banger of a fight card, with several fights being of main-event quality in their own right!
Ciryl Gane, Alexander Volkov, Nate Landwehr, and Doo Ho Choi are involved in two main card bangers, and I’m seeing some serious betting value up for grabs.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into my favorite UFC 310 main card analysis and predictions.
Picks Summary
- Ciryl Gane & Over 2.5 (-160)
- Landwehr-Choi Under 2.5 (-145)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
UFC 310 Event Information
- Date & Time: Saturday, December 7, 2024 – 06:00 PM ET
- Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas
- Scheduled Fights: 14
- Main Event: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Asakura (UFC Flyweight Title Bout)
Ciryl Gane vs. Alexander Volkov
UFC 310 Heavyweight Main Card Bout
Ciryl Gane
Ciryl Gane, despite competing amongst the heavyweight division’s elite for the majority of his UFC career, still hasn’t fought beyond the criticism of his Jones Jones performance, in which the French native was dominated in the first round due to a questionable grappling skill set.
Although Gane bounced back and finished Serghei Spivac six months after the Jones contest, doubts are still present. With nothing to work on besides his wrestling and grappling defense, his striking game is so strong that we could still have a future champion on our hands if those red flags have been somewhat fixed over the last year he’s spent on the sidelines.
- Gane Pro MMA Record: 12-2
- Gane KOs: 6
- Gane Submissions: 3
Alexander Volkov
Russia’s Alexander Volkov has been the ultimate heavyweight gatekeeper for some time. He’ll never be a champion and is unlikely to receive a title opportunity. Still, his huge frame and versatile skill set make him the perfect hurdle for up-and-coming challengers to prove their worth, although Saturday’s rematch doesn’t exactly present such a situation.
Volkov already stumbled versus Gane back in June of 2021. He’s only gotten older and slower since that lopsided unanimous decision loss. While we can expect him to continue holding the torch as a top-ten heavyweight, his weekend opponent already busted the gatekeeper’s gate.
- Volkov Pro MMA Record: 38-10-0
- Volkov KOs: 24
- Volkov Submissions: 4
Gane vs. Volkov: Fight Tape Analysis
Fresh from a knockout win over the dangerous Sergei Spivac, France’s Ciryl Gane will undoubtedly be looking to perform another emphatic striking performance. However, he must mind his Ps and Qs in the grappling department.
We all know Gane’s kryptonite in the heavyweight top-10 rankings is his lackluster ground game. That said, he’s an incredibly light-footed and speedy heavyweight, which is why Jon Jones has been one of the only foes capable of taking him down thus far. Volkov has won fights with grappling game plans but isn’t a wrestler, so don’t expect a similar outcome to what happened in the Jon Jones bout, where Gane was submitted within two minutes.
We’ve already witnessed this fight; honestly, I don’t expect much to change. Gane will keep the distance between himself and Volkov, be the more proficient striker, and outperform the Russian in a kickboxing exchange for three straight rounds.
UFC 310 Main Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing with OddsTraders’ top sportsbooks places Gane as the betting favorite, but you can boost your odds by adding the over 2½ rounds alongside the Frenchman’s moneyline.
Lightning doesn’t always strike twice, but it’s difficult to fade Gane in what should be a striking battle for the most part.
Volkov’s size and jab give him enough firepower to avoid a KO/TKO defeat, and we won’t have to worry about him losing to the lesser grappler in Gane. If you’re backing Gane to emulate what he achieved in 2021, adding the total going over makes sense, as there’s a great chance we’ll see another pitter-patter type kickboxing exchange between these men again, which will force the judges to intervene.
UFC Pick: Gane & Over 2.5 (-160) [1.6u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
Nate Landwehr vs. Doo Ho Choi
UFC 310 Featherweight Main Card Bout
Nate Landwehr
A boring Nate Landwehr fight doesn’t exist. He isn’t perfect, and yes, he’s 36 years old with three losses in the UFC, but that doesn’t stop ‘Nate the Train’ from steamrolling his opponents in the octagon, and we shouldn’t expect anything less from him at UFC 310.
Landwehr isn’t a man you trust putting money behind, but he’s a man you trust with expected violence. Better yet, UFC matchmakers have delivered the perfect foe for him, a contest with Fight of the Night written all over it.
- Landwehr Pro MMA Record: 18-5
- Landwehr KOs: 9
- Landwehr Submissions: 2
Doo Ho Choi
“The Korean Superboy” Doo Ho Choi lost a lot of his initial hype back in 2019. This was followed by a four-year layoff due to military duties in Korea. Many critics, including myself, didn’t expect much upon his return, but the boy is now a man, and his left hook knockout of Bill Algeo earlier this year silenced those doubts without question.
Choi versus Landwehr is the sleeper fight of the night. We have two featherweights who love to punch their opponents in the head, finish fights, and do it in style.
- Choi Pro MMA Record: 15-4-1
- Choi KOs: 12
- Choi Submissions: 1
Landwehr vs. Choi: Fight Tape Analysis
There isn’t much technical analysis required for this one: both men love nothing more than to launch their hardest shots to the faces of those standing opposite them, and more often than not, neither will back down before the fight’s over, win or lose.
Given Landwehr’s age and countless wars, it’s hard not to favor the younger, faster fighter in Choi having a slight advantage. His violent finish of Algeo proved he’s still capable of devasting knockout wins. While Landwehr also has the power and ruthless aggression to stop fights, his eagerness and pressure in the cage could be his downfall versus a crafty striker in Choi, who presents dangerous power on his backfoot just as much as he does moving forward.
UFC 310 Main Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds place Choi as the betting underdog, but only by a small margin. I’m not surprised at these odds, but to take a moneyline wagering position on this fight feels way too risky.
Instead, we’ll look at the total number of rounds under because I simply refuse to comprehend the thought of this fight going the distance. It’s one of those fights where, at any moment, both men could decide to stand and trade hooks – Max Holloway style – until someone drops, and even absent of this, they equally have the shot power and hunger for KO/TKO wins where neither will stop until someone drops!
If that isn’t convincing enough, let the numbers talk: Choi has gone the distance in just 2 of his 8 UFC bouts, Landwehr has been involved in five KO/TKO or submission finishes during his eight-fight career, and more importantly, the old gloves are back!
Somebody is going to sleep. Join me in hitting the under for a respectable -140.
UFC Pick: Under 2.5 (-145) [1.4 returns 1u profit] at Bet365
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