The UFC returns to the octagon with its first pay-per-view of 2025, and with Los Angeles as its host, this absolute banger of a fight card is expected to be a movie!
Dvalishvili, Nurmagomedov, Moicano, and Dariush are involved in two main card bangers, and I’m seeing some serious betting value we should attack at the sportsbook.
Enough talking; let’s dive into my favorite UFC 311 main card analysis and predictions, with the best betting odds courtesy of our top sportsbooks.
Picks Summary
- Umar Nurmagomedov by KO/TKO or Decision (-155)
- Renato Moicano ML (-170)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
UFC 311 Event Information
- Date & Time: Saturday, January 18, 2025 – 06:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Intuit Dome, LA, California
- Scheduled Fights: 14
- Main Event: Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan (UFC Lightweight Title Bout)
Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Merab Dvalishvili
UFC 311 Bantamweight Title Bout
Merab Dvalishvili
The newest bantamweight titleholder arrives in The City of Angels for his maiden 135lb defense this weekend following an absolute schooling of Sean O’Malley in the wrestling department last year. This success didn’t just crown Merab as the champion but also marked his eleventh consecutive win in the UFC, including a resume filled with top-tier talents like Henry Cejudo, Jose Aldo, and Cory Sandhagen.
- Dvalishvili Pro MMA Record: 18-4
- Dvalishvili KOs: 3
- Dvalishvili Submissions: 1
Umar Nurmagomedov
For Nurmagomedov, he’s had quite the opposite journey to Merab, earning his title opportunity this weekend based on just one success in the bantamweight division’s top-10 rankings. Said win was against Sandhagen, and although many argue he jumped the queue for a title shot, an 18-0 unblemished pro-MMA record, including six straight in the UFC, collected over the last nine years still presents an incredibly dangerous fighter with the tools to dethrone Merab’s reign before it’s even begun.
- Nurmagomedov Pro MMA Record: 18-0
- Nurmagomedov KOs: 2
- Nurmagomedov Submissions: 7
Dvalishvili vs. Nurmagomedov: Fight Tape Analysis
As a Dagestani cousin of Khabib and a lifelong training partner of this formidable Russian fight team, which also includes the defending lightweight champ at UFC 311, Islam Makhachev, it would seem that Merab’s reliance on consistent offensive wrestling might have met its match.
More interestingly, alongside Umar’s noteworthy wrestling abilities, he first started his MMA journey as a muay thai boxer, thus making him the complete package and a force to be reckoned with in the cage.
Umar’s scrambling ability is top-notch, and I believe this will be the difference-maker. Merab has never faced a younger grappler who can match his wrestling while owning a clear, striking advantage and the potential to put the champ on his back!
Albeit rare, we’ve seen Merab fall on the defensive side of wrestling. His bottom-game defenses have looked weak. I wouldn’t be surprised if he forced the wrestling and was, in fact, outwrestled. Should this fight begin to play out on the feet, we all know that despite not having a KO loss on his record, he’s been dropped on multiple occasions.
UFC 311 Main Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds place Umar as the favorite in a rare instance where the defending champion is an underdog. That said, it’s a justified position, given the variables.
Umar isn’t just the greater striker but also a threat in the grappling department. I envision Merab struggling for control time, making mistakes, and either losing rounds or potentially getting finished by the more proficient kickboxer.
UFC Pick: Nurmagomedov by KO/TKO or Decision (-155) [1.55u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano
UFC 311 Lightweight Main Card Bout
Beneil Dariush
You have to feel for Dariush. He went from an eight-fight win streak and a deserving No. 1 contender to losing back-to-back fights in 2023 and barely hanging onto his top-10 lightweight ranking. Farther time waits for no man, and although 35 isn’t too old, the 23 UFC wars he’s been through are evidently starting to show in longevity and fight durability.
- Dariush Pro MMA Record: 22-6-1
- Dariush KOs: 5
- Dariush Submissions: 8
Renato Moicano
In contrast, Renato Moicano, also aged 35, has seemingly peaked in his mid-thirties and looks stronger than ever during his decade-long UFC run. The Brazilian, who once struggled for consistency, has found a grove, and with four consecutive wins in 2022, he’s starting to enter the lightweight title picture. He could arguably be one or two wins shy of receiving the dream opportunity as UFC gold.
- Dariush Pro MMA Record: 20-5-1
- Dariush KOs: 2
- Dariush Submissions: 10
Dariush vs. Moicano: Fight Tape Analysis
Give me the version of Dariush that defeated Mateusz Gamrot in 2022, and I’m taking his UFC 311 underdog moneyline price to the bank. However, although the competition level of Charles Oliveira and Arman Tsarukyan was elite, he’s looked completely washed in his two most recent fights, and if his durability has, in fact, been compromised, expecting him to survive against the momentum and run of Moicano is a stretch.
Moicano blasting through Jalin Turner and Benoit Saint-Denis via strikes, the always dangerous BJJ game he presents now sits alongside a striking potential we must respect. When you also consider Moicano’s only UFC losses have come against former champions and title challengers, his experience versus the elite has been long-standing. With Dariush’s downward trajectory going against the momentum of the Brazilian’s recent success, all signs point toward the favorite.
UFC 311 Main Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing places them as a -170 betting favorite, and that’s a surprise to some, considering he could arguably have the greater striking on paper and a fearsome wrestling background. However, we’re looking at two fighters at different points in their career, and Moicano has continuously found ways to win of late, so to fade him now would feel like nothing more than a nonsensical shot on the underdog.
UFC Pick: Moicano ML (-170) [1.7 returns 1u profit] at Bet365
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