The UFC travels to Los Angeles, California this weekend, and we’re covering all your betting needs for an L.A. fight card stacked with top-ranked talent from top to bottom.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into the most noteworthy betting picks for the UFC 311 preliminary card bouts.
Picks Summary
- Sopaj by KO/TKO or Decision (-190)
- Nakamura by Decision (-125)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Ricky Turcios vs. Benardo Sopaj
UFC 311 Bantamweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, January 18, 2025 – 06:00 PM ET at Intuit Dome
Ricky Turcios
As the winner of 2021’s Ultimate Fighter, Ricky Turcios was held in high regard ahead of his UFC debut. Sadly, his place as a bantamweight prospect has since dropped. With a 2-2 UFC record since his first octagon appearance in 2021, his two victories, both by split decision, don’t exactly present a fearsome opponent many once believed they thought he could be.
- Turcios Pro Record: 12-4
- Turcios KO/TKO Wins: 3
- Turcios Submission Wins: 1
Benardo Sopaj
Benardo Sopaj made his UFC debut last March and instantly became the victim of a KO-of-the-year contender. An emphatic flying knee from Vinicius Oliveira handed the 24-year-old an awful introduction to the UFC roster, but we shouldn’t look past how great he looked before the shock KO arrived.
- Sopaj Pro Record: 11-3
- Sopaj KO/TKO Wins: 7
- Sopaj Submission Wins: 3
Turcios vs. Sopaj: Fight Tape Analysis
As mentioned, Sopaj looked great in his debut, minus the flying knee KO loss. He displayed the ability to wrestle, and if you know anything about his regional scene tenure, you’ll know that his offensive striking isn’t too shabby either.
In his closely fought split decision wins for the UFC, Turcios has obtained slight favoritism from two of the three judges based on his striking out. Unfortunately, he didn’t present much threat to the opposition in those moments, and without the high clip of strikes that had landed, we could have been looking for a fighter who was 0-4 in the UFC.
For his lack of experience, Sopaj is a credible striker with power. More importantly, he owns the offensive wrestling that can really mix this fight up opposite Turcios’ less-than-average takedown defense.
UFC 311 Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
The top-rated sportsbooks make Sopaj a betting favorite, but to draw his juiced moneyline down, back him to win by KO/TKO or decision.
Turcios’ only loss by submission was to the world-level BJJ skills of Raul Rosas Jr., and Sopaj, despite being the fighter with more credible grappling in this bout, doesn’t really present those same threats. Instead, back the favorite to win by KO/TKO or decision because if he doesn’t catch Turcios on the feet, he certainly has the tools to impress the judges.
UFC Pick: Sopaj by KO/TKO or Decision (-190) [1.9u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
Sopaj by KO/Dec: Supporting UFC 311 Facts
- 3 of Turcios’ 4 career losses were by KO/TKO or decision.
- Sopaj has won 8 fights by KO/TKO or decision.
Rinya Nakamura vs. Muin Gafurov
UFC 311 Bantamweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, January 18, 2025 – 06:00 PM ET at Intuit Dome
Rinya Nakamura
When your father’s the founder of Shooto, expect to grow up and dominate the wrestling mats.
That’s been the story for Rinya Nakamura. When COVID-19 prevented him from joining the Japanese Olympic wrestling team, he opted for violence and has since been on a tear in the world of MMA.
Regarding his UFC tenure to date, Nakamura’s freestyle wrestling has continued to be a crucial aspect of his skill set. Heading into 2025, he’s 3-0 in the octagon, only 29 years old, and he holds an unblemished pro record with nine consecutive wins, seven wins inside the distance, as well as the opportunity to focus heavily on his kickboxing game due to the grappling prowess he already possesses.
- Nakamura Pro Record: 9-0
- Nakamura KO/TKO Wins: 5
- Nakamura Submission Wins: 1
Muin Gafurov
Gafurov’s UFC tenure hasn’t been plain sailing.
He arrived at the octagon as a short-notice replacement, lost the fight and then returned later that same year (2023), only to get guillotine-choked by Said Nurmagomedov. He has since won a decision over Kyung Ho Kang, but his fighting schedule isn’t about to get any easier, as he’ll face one of the most elite wrestlers inside the 135lb division.
- Gafurov Pro Record: 19-6
- Gafurov KO/TKO Wins: 10
- Gafurov Submission Wins: 7
Nakamura vs. Gafurov: Fight Tape Analysis
When discussing Japanese prospects with a great chance of becoming champions, forget Kai Asakura, who recently received a title opportunity in his UFC debut and lost. We should focus on elite skill sets, such as the wrestling credentials Nakamura possesses. In his most recent UFC bout against Carlos Vera, he had a whopping 13 minutes of control time, meaning that he dominated 86% of said fight through sheer offensive wrestling and top control alone.
Such staggering and lopsided control figures have been regular throughout Nakamura’s career. As he ascends through the bantamweight rankings, it isn’t easy to envision his fellow up-and-comers having the top-tier pedigree in grappling to stop him.
Don’t get me wrong, Gafurov won’t make it an easy night and he’s certainly a step up in competition for the Japanese wrestler. However, when you realize he’s been taken down multiple times across multiple UFC fights against significantly lower-level wrestlers than Nakamura, his low probability betting odds of walking out of UFC 311 as the victor become justified.
UFC 311 Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds do present an obstacle for bettors, and that’s because Nakamura’s expected dominance this weekend is no secret. We’re looking at a -500 number on the moneyline, thus forcing us to attack the method of victory market.
Based on Gafurov’s proven durability against tough strikers and BJJ grapplers, he should have enough to stay alive in this one. Nakamura will dominate every round, but it’ll take the judges’ scorecards to separate the two and declare a victor.
UFC Pick: Nakamura By Decision (-125) [1.25u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
Nakamura by Decision: Supporting UFC 311 Facts
- Gafurov has lost just 1 of his 25 pro-MMA bouts inside the distance.
- Gafurov has gone the distance in 5 of his previous 8 MMA bouts.
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