The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to Down Under with its octagon this weekend. UFC 312, live from Sydney, Australia, presents an absolute banger of a fight card! Â
Tatiana Suarez, Weili Zhang, Jimmy Crute, and Rodolfo Bellato are involved in two main card bangers, and I’m seeing some serious betting value up for grabs at top sportsbooks.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into my favorite UFC 312 main card analysis and predictions.
Picks Summary
- Tatiana Suarez by Submission or Decision (+115)
- Jimmy Crute Moneyline (+130)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
UFC 312 Event Information
- Date & Time: Saturday, February 08, 2025 – 06:00 PM ET
- Location: Qudos Bank Arena, Sydney, Australia
- Scheduled Fights: 13
- Main Event: Dricus Du Plessis vs. Sean Strickland 2 (UFC Middleweight Title Bout)
Weili Zhang vs. Tatiana Suarez
UFC 312 Women’s Strawweight Title Co-Main Event Bout
Weili Zhang
Twenty-eight fights and 12 years of pro experience later, Weili Zhang is undeniably one of the greatest women’s mixed martial artists in sports history. Currently, she’s a two-time UFC flyweight champ, has defeated every major name in the sport aside from Rose Namajunas, and is riding a four-fight win streak that’s seen her dominate every opponent looking to take the gold away from her.
- Zhang Pro MMA Record: 25-3
- Zhang KOs: 11
- Zhang Submissions: 8
Tatiana Suarez
In step, Tatiana Suarez, one of the only elite competitors Zhang hasn’t faced, is arguably the most dangerous threat to the champ’s title. With seven UFC bouts to date, Suarez has run through the competition, holds an unbeaten pro record (10-0), and, as a prospect who’s been tipped to become champion since her UFC debut in 2017, is finally arriving at the big stage to prove her wrestling/grappling prowess is a force to be reckoned with.
- Suarez Pro MMA Record: 10-0
- Suarez KOs: 2
- Suarez Submissions: 5
Zhang vs. Suarez: Fight Tape Analysis
Physical strength and elite wrestling, coupled with an ever-evolving jiu-jitsu game, have made Tatiana Suarez an absolute force in the octagon that no flyweight fighter has even come close to compromising in competition.
Injuries have prolonged Suarez’s rise to title contention, but this hasn’t prevented her from dominating all seven of her UFC appearances to date with her high-level grappling. Most impressively, three of those seven wins over former UFC champions, and while her lack of technical striking ability does hinder her complete skill set, she rarely needs to rely on kickboxing because her takedown offense and top control are so damn impressive.
For Zhang, she’s arguably the greatest women’s talent ever. She’s a monster on the feet and has a credible ground game of her own, with excellent cardio and so much elite experience, making her a complete fighter and a fierce champion. However, defensively, we have seen some concerns, especially regarding takedown defense.
UFC 312 Main Card Odds & Prediction
Zhang has been taken down six times in her five most recent fights, which is a huge concern when considering that Suarez will be the toughest wrestler she’s ever faced. As five-round fights are an unproven entity for Suarez, there are questions about whether her cardio can go 25 minutes, but given her wrestling background and the fact that wrestlers often have excellent gas tanks, we should be willing to have faith in this regard.
Should this fight take place on the feet, Suarez is doomed. However, the challenger will know this while also knowing the champ has flaws in her takedown defense. As a result, the challenger will ragdoll Zhang, dominate her on the floor, and either lock up a submission or achieve enough groundwork to win at least three of the five rounds.
UFC Pick: Suarez by Submission or Decision (+115) [1u returns 1.15u profit] at Bet365
Jimmy Crute vs. Rodolfo Bellato
UFC 312 Light Heavyweight Main Card Bout
Jimmy Crute
Australia’s own Jimmy Crute was once a valued prospect who won four of his first five UFC appearances. Unfortunately, said momentum couldn’t be maintained, and when the level of competition rose, he suffered a four-fight winless run en route to retirement.
With a long hiatus and contemplation, Crute returns to pro-MMA this weekend on home soil. He was a credible talent with a lot of experience, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him recoup the respect he once had.
- Crute Pro MMA Record: 12-4-1
- Crute KOs: 5
- Crute Submissions: 4
Rodolfo Bellato
Rodolfo Bellato made his UFC debut in 2024, and it wasn’t the greatest performance. He has won 12 of his 14 pro-MMA bouts to date, and 11 of those wins were by knockout or submission. That said, he lacks the experience and sample size to truly know his ceiling, and based on his debut performance, I wouldn’t expect him to reach the top ranks at 205lbs anytime soon.
- Bellato Pro MMA Record: 12-2
- Bellato KOs: 7
- Bellato Submissions: 4
Crute vs. Bellato: Fight Tape Analysis
It was shocking to see Crute retire at age 27, but it’s been two years, and with time to reevaluate his game, the Aussie is back to prove his worth. It should also be noted that his losses were against top-ranked opponents, a former champion, and a former title challenger.
So, can Crute reinvent himself versus an unknown up-and-comer?
Despite winning a round two TKO, Bellato looked awful doing so. Before capitalizing on gasses, Ihor Potieria was dropped multiple times and even taken down. And if you know anything about Crute, he has the wrestling chops, and that’s more than likely the path to victory his team envisions in this spot.
On the feet, Bellato has that gorilla power, and this would be his path to victory, but he’s hardly the most technical. Crute isn’t the most technical or pretty striker either, but his wrestling/grappling threat is certainly the biggest skill set threat in this bout. Â
UFC 312 Main Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds place Bellato as the betting favorite, which is understandable considering Crute’s layoff and losing streak before departure. However, with experience, the wrestling threat, and an untested opponent in front of him, I cannot neglect the plus-money in front of us.
UFC Pick: Crute Moneyline (+130) [1 returns 1.3u profit] at Bet365
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