The UFC travels to Sydney, Australia, this weekend, and we’re covering all your betting needs for a fight card Down Under stacked with top-ranked talent from top to bottom.
Let’s waste no more time and dive into the most noteworthy betting picks and UFC odds for the UFC 312 preliminary card bouts.
Picks Summary
- Gabriel Santos ML & Over 0.5 Rounds (-133)
- Kody Steele ML (-200)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Jack Jenkins vs. Gabriel Santos
UFC 312 Featherweight Preliminary Bout Â
Saturday, February 08, 2025 – 06:00 PM ET at Qudos Bank Arena
Jack Jenkins
Australia’s own Jack Jenkins has fared well during his UFC tenure to date, with a 3-1 record and his only loss surfacing due to an arm injury. He’ll have the home crowd support and a potential edge on those home cooking scorecards, but a fierce challenge in Gabriel Santos could be his toughest test thus far.
- Jenkins Pro Record: 13-3
- Jenkins KO/TKO Wins: 6
- Jenkins Submission Wins: 3
Gabriel Santos
In contrast to his weekend foe, Gabriel Santos holds a losing 1-2 UFC record. That said, he’s unquestionably fought the higher level of competition, and watching him take a top-ranked Lerone Murphy to a closely fought split decision was evidence that he’s worthy of his position on the roster.
- Santos Pro Record: 11-2
- Santos KO/TKO Wins: 3
- Santos Submission Wins: 4
Jenkins vs. Santos: Fight Tape Analysis
On paper, Jenkin has had a respected UFC career with a 3-1 record, but after watching him struggle to finish Herbert Burns, I have concerns. Yes, he eventually found the KO/TKO, but he made it look difficult versus one of the worst featherweights ever.
Jenkins’s offensive striking is clean, and he utilizes his fundamentals well. However, Santos’s violent Muay Thai nature cannot be ignored, and the experience he’s already garnered versus top-level competition shouldn’t be overlooked, especially now that said level is dropping significantly. Moreover, he’ll own a grappling advantage should he want to use it, and if Burns can pose a threat, Santos has the potential to finish this fight brutally.Â
UFC 312 Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
The top-rated sportsbooks have Santos as a favorite despite owning the losing UFC record of the two. If this doesn’t speak volumes, I don’t know what does. That said, I don’t want to pay the juice on this bout, and Jenkins has excellent durability, so I believe he can survive 1 ½ rounds at the least.
I wouldn’t be shocked to see Santos take a late stoppage win, but the Brazilian to win and over 1 ½ rounds at -133 feels like a solid price and potential outcome to back with everything considered.Â
UFC Pick: Santos ML & Over 0.5 Rounds (-133) [1.33u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
Â
Kody Steele vs. Rongzhu
UFC 312 Lightweight Preliminary Bout Â
Saturday, February 08, 2025 – 06:00 PM ET at Qudos Bank Arena
Kody Steele
Kody Steele makes his UFC debut this weekend, but don’t be fooled by his small 7-0 record. Training under the Syndicate MMA banner, this Washington native brings decades of grappling experience to the octagon and heavy hands for good measure.
- Steele Pro Record: 7-0
- Steele KO/TKO Wins: 4
- Steele Submission Wins: 1
Rongzhu
Rongzhu, aged just 25, has collected an impressive level of professional MMA experience with 31 fights, but after being cut from the UFC and then returning again last year, could his true talents only be worthy on the regional scene?
- Rongzhu Pro Record: 25-6
- Rongzhu KO/TKO Wins: 14
- Rongzhu Submission Wins: 7
Steele vs. Rongzhu: Fight Tape Analysis
More often than not, I’d be heavily considering the fighter with such a huge MMA experience advantage. In this scenario, that would be Rongzhu. However, Steele was tossing about middleweight and welterweight fighters in grappling contests years before his pro-MMA venture, and to clarify, those names were Gregory Rodrigues and Phil Rowe.
Now, debuting for the UFC at lightweight, I envision his strength advantage being incredibly useful. There’s no denying Rongzhu’s greatest path to victory is behind a striking game plan, but even then, I can’t be sure his questionable durability can handle a Steel right hook or haymaker should the newcomer connect, which is even more concerning when looking at the negative striking differential of Rongzhu.
UFC 312 Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
Ultimately, while experience favors Rongzhu, the complete martial artist with elite grappling has to be the side. Whether using his heavy and confident hands or dominating on the ground, I expect Steele to keep his unbeaten record in his UFC debut and make a statement, most likely with a KO or submission finish.
The UFC pricing makes the UFC debutant a favorite for a good reason. He will prove this price to be undervalued come Saturday as he overpowers and wipes the floor with his younger, less powerful, and aggressive opponent. Â
UFC Pick: Steele ML (-200) [2u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-Gambler
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
