The UFC returns to the octagon in a big way this weekend, with an absolute banger of a fight card headlined by Alex ‘Poatan’ Pereira defending his light heavyweight gold versus Magomed Ankalaev!
King Green, Mauricio Ruffy, Jalin Turner, and Ignacio Bahamondes are also involved in two main card bangers, though, and I’ve found some excellent betting value up for grabs at top sportsbooks.
It’s time!!! Let’s dive right into my favorite UFC 313 main card picks and analysis.
Picks Summary
- Mauricio Ruffy & Under 2.5 Rounds (+105)
- Turner-Bahamondes Under 2.5 Rounds (-145)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
UFC 313 Event Information
- Date & Time: Saturday, March 8, 2025 – 06:30 PM ET
- Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas
- Scheduled Fights: 12
- Main Event: Alex Pereira vs. Magomed Ankalaev (UFC Light Heavyweight Title Bout)
King Green vs. Mauricio Ruffy
UFC 313 Lightweight Main Card Bout
King Green
Saturday will mark King Green’s fifty-first professional MMA fight! When you consider he’s 38 years old and has been fighting under the UFC banner versus elite competition for twelve years, one has to wonder how much he really has left in the tank.
Don’t get me wrong, Green’s career hasn’t been lackluster, nor has he been a pushover. That said, Father time, unfortunately, gets us all, and as he’s winless 5 of his last 8 bouts and two of his wins during that eighth period were against fellow oldies, his chances versus a powerful, fresh faced up-and-comer feel bleak.
- Green Pro MMA Record: 32-16-1
- Green KOs: 11
- Green Submissions: 9
Mauricio Ruffy
Mauricio Ruffy, behind the hype of the Fighting Nerds gym, burst onto the UFC scene in 2024 and continued his resume of wins filled with knockouts. Last time out, however, James Llontop snapped that 100% KO streak, and Ruffy settled for the decision. However, after rewatching the fight, Ruffy gave everything he could, and I still wonder how Llontop managed to survive the damage he had inflicted.
The good news is that oddsmakers have adjusted their opinion on Ruffy’s finishing potential due to his failure to find a knockout over Llontop, thus giving us greater odds. Don’t be fooled by this slight market correction. This man brutally finished all of his opponents via KO/TKO before this bout, and there’s a high probability that he can reinstate this level of violence on Saturday.
- Ruffy Pro MMA Record: 11-1
- Ruffy KOs: 10
- Ruffy Submissions: 0
Green vs. Ruffy: Fight Tape Analysis
Shoulder rolls? Crisp counter boxing? Great cardio? Yes, Green has all of this. However, his recent outings in the UFC, most notably since the Islam Makhachev defeat, have prompted him to ignore his reactionary counter-striking style and go on the attack more often.
This hasn’t fared well in the latter stages of his career.
Then, we must consider Green’s durability, which once was credible but is now incredibly questionable. His loss to Jalin Turner could’ve, and probably should’ve been stopped by the referee before it was, and although he defeated Jim Miller, he took so many damaging strikes in that bout, which should be a cause for concern as he opposed a 41-year-old journeyman. Lastly, Paddy Pimblett wrapped him in the first round and choked him without breaking a sweat.
In steps Mauricio Ruffy. He’s young, extremely fast, and, most notably, a powerful striker who delivers a diverse range of shot selections, which has seen him finish 90% of his pro-MMA wins( 11) by knockout.
UFC 313 Main Card Odds & Prediction
Ruffy will be too light on his feet, significantly faster than Green, and undoubtedly more comfortable in the octagon throwing kill shots minus durability concerns as a youthful 28-year-old holding a solid chin. Green won’t roll over, but the power of Ruffy will be too much, as the Brazilian will cash the moneyline and do it under 2 ½ rounds to help us take a juiced line into plus-money.
UFC Pick: Ruffy & Under 2.5 Rounds (+105) [1u returns 1.05u profit] at Bet365
Jalin Turner vs. Ignacio Bahamondes
UFC 313 Lightweight Main Card Bout
Jalin Turner
Jalin Turner booked his ticket into the UFC lightweight division following his victory on DWCS. Despite losing his debut to Vicente Luque, once he built up a win streak involving countless stoppage wins by KO/TKO and submission, many believed we had a serious prospect on our hands.
Unfortunately, the hype around Turner was crushed in the top-10 lightweight rankings. Losses to Mateusz Gamrot, Dan Hooker, and most recently, Renato Moicano, have seen his stock drop. However, at 29-years-old with his finishing capability on the ground and standing, he’s not one we should underestimate.
- Turner Pro MMA Record: 14-8
- Turner KOs: 10
- Turner Submissions: 4
Ignacio Bahamondes
Ignacio Bahamondes doesn’t have the experience versus top level competition like his weekend opponent. Still, he’s 5-2 in the UFC and returns to the octagon following back-to-back knockout victories in 2024.
Like Turner, Bahamondes is a large lightweight, standing at 6’3”. This could be a crucial factor regarding his chance of victory this weekend, as few 155-pounders can match the size of his upcoming foe.
- Bahamondes Pro MMA Record: 16-5
- Bahamondes KOs: 11
- Bahamondes Submissions: 1
Turner vs. Bahamondes: Fight Tape Analysis
Turner is a skilled fighter. He’s often utilized his large frame against lightweights much smaller than himself. He won’t have that luxury on Saturday, but this doesn’t diminish his knockout power and submission abilities.
Turner’s most probable path to victory could actually be through a grounded affair in which he can display that underrated BJJ offense. However, he isn’t the greatest offensive wrestler, and with Bahamondes matching his size, it might be a struggle to get this one to the mat.
In the striking realm, both men have the potential to finish their food. That said, defensive attributes aren’t as noteworthy, and because of this, I expect to see a lot of violence and clean shots landed from both ends.
UFC 313 Main Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing with OddsTraders’ top sportsbooks has an interesting price on under 2 ½ rounds, especially since this bout could be utter violence from the opening bell.
I believe Bahamondes is live to get stopped in the early rounds, while Turner’s cardio does fade late, and this won’t be good for his durability staying strong in the latter rounds. Either way, we have two proven finishes that will go to war, and I have a funny feeling this fight won’t need the judges!
UFC Pick: Under 2.5 Rounds (-145) [1.45 returns 1u profit] at Bet365
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