UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev is live from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas this weekend, and we’re covering all your betting needs for a Sin City pay-per-view card stacked with elite MMA talent from top to bottom.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into the most noteworthy betting picks for the UFC 313 preliminary card bouts.
Picks Summary
- Carlos Leal by KO/TKO (-120)
- Joshua Van ML (-188)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Alex Morono vs. Carlos Leal
UFC 313 Welterweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, March 08, 2025 – 06:30 PM ET at T-Mobile Arena
Alex Morono
Alex Morono, with eight years of UFC experience and a 13-8-1 UFC record, could be viewed as a stern test for any newcomer to the welterweight division. He’s no slouch on paper, and the experience he owns is undeniable. However, recent appearances have left a lot to be desired. The Texas-born 170-pounder has lost four of his last six appearances since 2022 and has only defeated fighters older than he is.
- Morono Pro Record: 24-11
- Morono KO/TKO Wins: 6
- Morono Submission Wins: 7
Carlos Leal
Carlos Leal might not have the UFC level of experience comparable to his weekend opponent. Still, as a former PFL and LFA competitor holding 27-fights as a pro martial artist, he hasn’t exactly been fighting bums, and despite losing his UFC debut at UFC 308 last October, the real ones that the judges absolutely screwed him over on the scorecards in favor of Rinat Fakhretdinov.
- Leal Pro Record: 21-6
- Leal KO/TKO Wins: 6
- Leal Submission Wins: 2
Morono vs. Leal: Fight Tape Analysis
You might wonder why a 0-1 UFC competitor like Leal is a seven-to-one favorite against a UFC veteran like Morono. Well, it’s not like he’s the worst fighter, but there’s always been something missing from his game. He has decent volume in the striking area, and doesn’t tend to utilize wrestling/grappling very much, but when you look for key skills that make him stand out from the crowd, you might be looking for something that doesn’t exist.
Similarly, I don’t look at Leal and see an elite skill set, but I do see an aggressive nature and presence in the octagon that actually makes you believe he wants to be there. The same cannot be said for Morono, who, for the most part, seems to be sailing through fights without much emotion or care for what’s taking place.
UFC 313 Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
Leal has a menacing jab and some blistering leg kicks. With Morono having a questionable cardio of late and getting outstruck by low-level opponents like Niko Price, I envision the Brazilian refusing to allow the judges to screw him this time around as he hunts for a stoppage win.
The UFC odds have Leal at -700, the card’s biggest favorite. There’s an expectation that he’ll dominate this bout, and I agree. So much so, that backing him to win by knockout at -120 is a no-brainer.
Leal by KO/TKO: Supporting UFC 313 Facts
- Morono has been knocked out in three of his pro career bouts
- Leal’s four most recent pro-MMA wins came by KO/TKO in the first or second round
UFC Pick: Leal by KO/TKO (-120) [1u returns 1.2u profit] at Bet365
Rei Tsuruya vs. Joshua Van
UFC 313 Flyweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, March 08, 2025 – 06:30 PM ET at T-Mobile Arena
Rei Tsuruya
Rei Tsuruya is an undefeated Japanese prospect whose wrestling credentials have helped him remain undefeated throughout his short pro-MMA career. Sound familiar? Well, it should because Tatsuro Taira presented an almost identical description until that unbeaten streak was soon snapped in the deep waters of the UFC.
Tsuruya’s need to wrestle will be exposed at some point during his UFC career. Whether or not it’s this weekend, everyone knows that without the success of constant takedowns and ground controls, he will get outstruck by even the most basic offensive strikers in the flyweight division.
- Tsuruya Pro Record: 10-0
- Tsuruya KO/TKO Wins: 4
- Tsuruya Submission Wins: 4
Joshua Van
The oddsmakers price Joshua Van to snap Tsuruya’s win streak for many reasons. Still, I believe that the undefeated streak of inexperienced MMA newcomers no longer being feared has something to do with it. Not to mention, he’s a damn good fighter with endless cardio in a weight class where scrambling and ground control is extremely difficult to survive on.
- Van Pro Record: 12-2
- Van KO/TKO Wins: 6
- Van Submission Wins: 2
Tsuruya vs. Van: Fight Tape Analysis
Tsuruya spams submissions like no tomorrow. Unfortunately, he isn’t that great at finishing them. As a result, his opponents are often given moments to scramble and escape said grounded positions, which I envision Van being able to take advantage of.
Once this fight returns to the feet, Van will attack this guy like a man possessed. It might take for him to lose the first round, as he typically takes a round to find his groove, but once the shots of Tsuruya become visible to Van, I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets finished via continuous damage on the feet.
Van has gradually accrued UFC experience and has looked to level up from fight to fight. I love his movement and diverse striking options, and I anticipate that he’ll make it apparent how one-dimensional the strong grappler is.
UFC 313 Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing with OddsTrader’s top sportsbooks makes Van a favorite because he’s the more talented fighter—it’s that simple. Tsaruya is talented, undoubtedly, but he’s so lackluster on the feet that with a small likelihood of tapping Van, he’s in for a world of trouble when the fight stands.
Behind excellent cardio, the striking pressure will be piled on in the second and third rounds, if the Japanese grappler can survive that long.
UFC Pick: Van ML (-188) [1.88u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
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