The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to the octagon, with an absolute banger of a fight card, live from Miami, Florida! Yair Rodriguez, Patricio Pitbull, Bryce Mitchell and Jean Silva are involved in two main card bangers, and I’m seeing some serious betting value up for grabs.
Let’s get to it and dive right into my favorite UFC 314 main card analysis and predictions, with a selection of best bets you cannot miss!
Picks Summary
- Bryce Mitchell ML (+250)
- Yair Rodriguez by KO/TKO or Decision (-172)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
UFC 314 Event Information
- Date & Time: Saturday, April 12, 2025 – 08:05 PM EDT
- Location: Kaseya Center, Miami, Florida
- Scheduled Fights: 13
- Main Event: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes (UFC Featherweight Title Bout)
Bryce Mitchell vs. Jean Silva
UFC 314 Featherweight Main Card Bout
Bryce Mitchell
Uh-oh, Bryce Mitchell is back in the MMA media, as I’m sure Dana White and Co. have been sweating buckets about his on-screen appearances since the Arkansas native gave respect to Adolf Hitler some months back.
That said, and all Antisemitism aside, Mitchell is a damn good fighter with an 8-2 UFC record and a long list of domineering performances. Josh Emmett recently sent him to the shadow realm, but he bounced back in style with a ground-and-pound finish over Kron Gracie, and if you’re lacking in the wrestling department, beware, because this man will rag-doll you like a child.
- Mitchell Pro MMA Record: 17-2
- Mitchell KOs: 1
- Mitchell Submissions: 9
Jean Silva
The Fighting Nerds are on top of the world right now, and one of their fighters, Jean Silva, dog-barking and all, has rapidly gone from fighting low-tier opponents into a high-level bout with Mitchell this weekend due to his unruly punching power and knockout capabilities.
Four fights and four knockouts (along with an extroverted personality) have put Silva’s name on the map. However, we don’t know where his grappling level is at, and that’s about to be tested by the best wrestler he’s faced to date!
- Silva Pro MMA Record: 15-2
- Silva KOs: 12
- Silva Submissions: 2
Mitchell vs. Silva: Fight Tape Analysis
If it wasn’t obvious, we’re looking at a cliché striker versus grappler matchup here. With lights-out power in his hands, Silva will aim to keep this fight standing, preferably at a range outside of the cliché/takedown zone, and piece Mitchell apart on the feet.
Mitchell isn’t the worst striker, but Silva’s power alone will cause him a world of problems. But here’s the thing: despite winning all of his contests by knockout, we watched Silva easily get dragged to the ground by Charles Jourdain, who’s now fighting at bantamweight! This isn’t a good sign because Mitchell’s state championship-winning level of wrestling is lightyears above Jourdain’s, and with a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt for good measure, he could severely limit Silva’s time on the feet!
UFC 314 Main Card Odds & Prediction
The pricing within top-rated sportsbooks places Silva as the betting favorite, but I also see a lot of smoke and mirrors. To date, none of Silva’s opponents are ranked in the top-20 at lightweight, and he’s never proven he can hang with an elite wrestler.
It would seem that hatred for Mitchell’s out-of-the-octagon activities has dictated this line, but we’re looking at a story here that’s as old as UFC itself. Knockout artists with average grappling skills often falter against elite wrestlers. That’s the case here. I refuse to let outside noise make me a Silva believer until this knockout power delivers results against the upper echelon.
Therefore, don’t be surprised when Mitchell rag-dolls Silva and removes his lone path to victory. I wouldn’t be shocked if he landed a submission either. And for that reason, Mitchell’s +250 underdog line is an absolute steal.
UFC Pick: Bryce Mitchell ML (+250) [1u returns 2.5u profit] at Bet365
Yair Rodriguez vs. Patricio Pitbull
UFC Featherweight Main Card Bout
Yair Rodriguez
Ten years and sixteen fights later, Mexico’s Yair Rodriguez may have stumbled against the featherweight elite. Still, an entertaining striking style has made him a fan favorite while keeping him positioned as a top-ranked 145’er for the majority of his UFC tenure.
- Rodriguez Pro MMA Record: 19-5
- Rodriguez KOs: 8
- Rodriguez Submissions: 5
Patricio Pitbull
Arguably the biggest name outside of the UFC, former two-division Bellator champion Patricio Pitbull, finally makes his debut under Dana White’s banner this weekend, and the hype surrounding this Brazilian savage will sink or swim come Saturday night.
Does Pitbull follow the path of Michael Chandler? A fighter he notably knocked out during their Bellator tenure. Or, does Pitbull have the skill set to compete with the world’s best, something he’s never proved while competing for the B-league MMA organizations?
- Pitbull Pro MMA Record: 36-7
- Pitbull KOs: 12
- Pitbull Submissions: 12
Rodriguez vs. Pitbull: Fight Tape Analysis
At 37 years old, with recent losses to Chihiro Suzuki and Sergio Pettis, I fear it might be a ‘too little, too late’ scenario for Patricio Pitbull. Touching back on Michael Chandler, the Brazilian is also joining the world’s No.1 mixed martial arts promotion too late into his career, and while his jiu-jitsu and striking prowess have served him well elsewhere, to make his debut against one of the featherweight’s most dangerous and elusive strikers is a tall ask.
There aren’t many successes on Pitbull’s record over opponents that could make it in the UFC. This isn’t a knock on his skill set, but at 5’6”, he often struggles to get on the inside, and his wrestling isn’t exactly his most deadly weapon.
When you’re a fighter like Pitbull, who’s always looking to decapitate the opposition, attempting this against Rodriguez will be a lot tougher than most people expect.
Yair is a striker, through and through. He’ll have a speed, reach and height advantage, and to be honest, he could dominate all three rounds if Pitbull doesn’t consistently drag this fight to the ground. The only way to guarantee a win over Rodriguez is to wrestle, but I don’t see Pitbull doing this, especially in his UFC debut, where the pressure is on him to perform more than ever!
UFC 314 Main Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds place Rodriguez as a slight betting favorite. In a fight where I believe kickboxing will be the predominant player, I have to side with the favorite’s younger, faster, and elusive footwork.
Rodriguez has such great footwork that I believe Pitbull’s attempts to break the distance will fail. It might even lead to a point where Pitbull gets knocked out, and with that said, back Mexico’s most entertaining striker to win by knockout or decision for a greater price than his moneyline!
UFC Pick: Rodriguez by KO/TKO or Decision (-172) [1.72 returns 1u profit] at Bet365
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