The UFC returns to Texas on Saturday afternoon, and we could witness a wrestle-fest as two renowned lightweight grapplers, Beneil Dariush, and Arman Tsarukyan, headline the event.
Company veteran Bobby Green and Jalin Turner are scheduled for the co-main event, thus guaranteeing we’ll see fists fly in the octagon this weekend.
Let’s waste no more time and dive into the most noteworthy betting picks for the UFC Austin main and co-main event.
Picks Summary
Beneil Dariush vs. Arman Tsarukyan
UFC Austin Lightweight Main Event Bout
Saturday, December 2, 2023 – 08:05 PM ET at Moody Center
Beneil Dariush
- Beneil Dariush Pro MMA Record: 22-5-1
- Beneil Dariush KOs: 5
- Beneil Dariush Submissions: 8
This will be Dariush’s first bout since UFC 289 in June 2023, when he suffered a difficult first-round technical knockout loss to former champion Charles Oliveira. Oliveira ended Dariush’s remarkable eight-fight winning sequence, depriving him of his initial opportunity to contend for UFC gold.
Arman Tsarukyan
- Arman Tsarukyan Pro MMA Record: 20-3-0
- Arman Tsarukyan KOs: 8
- Arman Tsarukyan Submissions: 5
Conversely, Tsarukyan, who is 27 years old, is now receiving the much-anticipated bout against a prominent opponent he has been requesting. With two consecutive victories under his belt, a triumph against an experienced and consistently successful fighter like Dariush would elevate Tsarukyan’s standing among the elite group of 155-pound fighters.
Dariush vs. Tsarukyan: Fight Tape Analysis
Speed, youth, and a determined mindset are three glaring factors that side with Tsarukyan. However, I remain unconvinced that he’s prepared for elite opponents with significant takedown defense and well-versed striking.
The path to victory for the Armenian favorite is to utilize his wrestling offense and control the fight on the ground. However, that’s much easier said than done versus a grappler with Dariush’s credentials.
With a strong possibility of keeping this fight standing more than it’s played out on the ground, a more precise and experienced striker in Dariush can fall back on his experience to out-point his younger foe across the 25-minute time limit.
UFC Austin Main Event Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing with OddsTrader’s top sportsbooks believe Tsarukyan is the most probable winner of this fight, and while I agree he should be favored, the -280 price tag is absurd.
We’ve already watched Dariush out-grapple the grapplers. While Tsarukyan isn’t completely lost on the feet, specific positions such as cage clinching and striking at a distance could easily side with the underdog, thus making his +225 moneyline a more-than-worthy price.
UFC Pick: Beneil Dariush ML (+225) [1u returns 2.25u profit] at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Jalin Turner vs. Bobby Green
UFC Austin Lightweight Co-Main Event Bout
Saturday, December 2, 2023 – 04:00 PM ET at Moody Center
Jalin Turner
- Jalin Turner Pro MMA Record: 13-7-0
- Jalin Turner KOs: 9
- Jalin Turner Submissions: 4
Turner is filling in for Dan Hooker, who earlier this week withdrew from his match against Green due to an arm injury sustained in training. Green-Turner will consist of three rather than five rounds.
Earlier this year, the 28-year-old suffered consecutive decision defeats in bouts against Hooker and Mateusz Gamrot, albeit tightly fought contests. Before the downtrend, Turner had five consecutive stoppage victories that put him on course to contend for the 155-pound championship.
Bobby Green
- Bobby Green Pro MMA Record: 31-14-1
- Bobby Green KOs: 11
- Bobby Green: 9
Since July, company mainstay Green has recorded two consecutive stoppage victories, including an arm triangle choke that rendered Tony Ferguson unconscious at UFC 291 and a 33-second knockout over Grant Dawson.
Green, 37 years old, had hoped to participate in a rare five-round non-main event, non-title match, but the opponent change has altered his plans. The longtime veteran with only a few victories above .500 in the UFC, has defeated notable opponents such as Nasrat Haqparast and Al Iaquinta throughout the years.
Turner vs. Green: Fight Tape Analysis
Green should put forth a touch more effort from the front foot and exert some pressure on Turner. Due to Turner’s comparatively inadequate preparation, Green would probably profit from a quick tempo.
Additionally, two takedown attempts would be of great assistance. The historical underestimation of Green as a wrestler constitutes a significant challenge for “The Tarantula.” Even if he cannot restrain Turner for an extended period, it is prudent to force Turner to drain the tank.
In this situation, a TKO appears to be Turner’s most viable strategy for achieving victory. Can he maintain Green’s tempo for fifteen minutes with this scant notice? It seems particularly challenging, considering Turner’s lackluster performance in the latter portion of the Dan Hooker bout.
Turner, thankfully, strikes with tremendous force, and Green has perhaps marginally decelerated of late. Turner should be patient with his long-distance pokes and range kicks, the type of assaults that Green will struggle to counter. Turner has a reasonable chance of thwarting a Green combination with a powerful connection if he can compel Green to approach him.
UFC Austin Co-Main Event Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds at OddsTrader have placed Turner as the betting favorite, and given the glaring disadvantages for Green, such as height, reach, age, and power, it’s difficult to argue the pricing.
I don’t envision a finish surfacing in this contest, and although this favors Green’s cardio, I expect Turner to achieve enough success in the first two rounds to walk away with a unanimous decision.
UFC Pick: Jalin Turner ML (-230) [2.30u returns 1u profit] at Unibet
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
