The Lone Star State hosts UFC Austin this Saturday afternoon, and we’re covering all your betting needs from the stacked lineup of preliminary bouts that lead us into the main card.
The UFC betting odds are live, so let’s jump straight into the most noteworthy betting picks for the UFC Austin prelim schedule.
Picks Summary
Steve Garcia vs. Melquizael Costa
UFC Austin Featherweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, December 2, 2023 – 04:00 PM ET at Moody Center
Melquizael Costa
Brazil’s Melquizael Costa snatched the opportunity to become a member of the UFC roster when accepting a short-notice bout versus the formidable Thiago Moises earlier this year. A rear-naked choke loss wasn’t the result he’d hoped for, but an authoritative comeback unanimous decision victory over Austin Lingo proved his worth.
Costa has now settled in the UFC featherweight division with two fights on his record, and at 27, he presents a high ceiling behind a diverse MMA skillset and unbreakable chin. In addition, and despite his young age, he’s impressively fought twenty-six times as a professional.
- Costa Pro Record: 20-6-0
- Costa KO/TKO Wins: 7
- Costa Submission Wins: 6
Steve Garcia
A do-or-die attitude paid dividends for Steve Garcia when competing for Bellator and on the regional MMA scene. The New Mexico representative entered the UFC with an impressive knockout resume. While he’s continued his aggressive streak in his successful UFC bouts to date (3 KOs), this approach could wear thin whenever he’s matched with durability and technical prowess.
- Garcia Pro Record: 14-5-0
- Garcia KO/TKO Wins: 11
- Garcia Submission Wins: 0
Costa vs. Garcia: Fight Tape Analysis
Garcia cannot help but go balls to the wall once the cage door closes. Sure, it’s gone to plan on various occasions, but Costa doesn’t present a style that will succumb to a quick finish. The Brazilian has never been stopped via strikes, and once Garcia over-exerts himself to find the finish, it’ll likely be plain sailing for the favorite.
Brawling favors Garcia, while Costa undoubtedly owns a technical kickboxing advantage. More notably, the latter isn’t defensively lost, and his chin holds up time and time again; we shouldn’t be surprised should this bout go all three rounds, but the speed and precise striking offensive of Costa will give him the nod, as he fends off the aggressive brawler.
UFC Austin Prelim Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing with OddsTrader’s top sportsbooks has slapped a large moneyline price tag on Costa, which is disappointing when Garcia doesn’t have a bad UFC record whatsoever. That said, oddsmakers obviously notice the red flags, and the Brazilian is a safe wagering position, with all things considered.
Costa Moneyline: Supporting UFC Austin Facts
- Garcia has only won by KO/TKO in the UFC [3]
- Costa has never been stopped via KO/TKO
UFC Pick: Costa ML (-245) [2.45u returns 1u profit] at Unibet
Ihor Potieria vs. Rodolfo Bellato
UFC Austin Light Heavyweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, December 2, 2023 – 04:00 PM ET at Moody Center
Rodolfo Bellato
Rodolfo Bellato has finally made it onto the big stage following two attempts on Dana White’s Contender Series (1 loss, 1 win), and the former LFA standout will have a point to prove this Saturday.
Fortunately for him, it won’t be a tall ask, as he’s undoubtedly the more diverse martial artist compared to his opponent, and with the back of Team Nogueira, the sky’s the limit for the 27-year-old brute.
- Bellato Pro Record: 11-2-0
- Bellato KO/TKO Wins: 6
- Bellato Submission Wins: 4
Ihor Potieria
UFC matchmakers haven’t done Ukraine’s Ihor Potieria any favors since he dispatched the MMA legend, Shogun Rua, in round one at UFC 283 earlier this year. He was matched with the kickboxing expertise of Carlos Ulberg and handled easily. Now, he’ll face a Brazilian finisher who holds the skills to complicate his octagon appearance in every facet of the game.
- Potieria Pro Record: 20-4-0
- Potieria KO/TKO Wins: 9
- Potieria Submission Wins: 7
Bellato vs. Potieria: Fight Tape Analysis
Bellato makes his UFC debut in what I believe is a makeshift matchup for him; it literally couldn’t be any easier. I expect him to find success anywhere the fight takes place, but even more so in grappling exchanges where Potieria has displayed a horrific level of defense.
One-punch KO power is the only advantage for the Ukrainian, but with such poor cardio compared to Bellato, he won’t have much time to make good use of it. As the weaker technical striker and grappler, Bellato should sail to victory; the moneyline price for a UFC debutant is undesirable.
UFC Austin Prelim Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds have placed Bellato as the largest betting favorite at UFC Austin. And while I believe he’s going to dominate, backing a UFC debutant at this number doesn’t make sense.
For this reason, I’m looking at the under 1.5 rounds and seeing noteworthy value. Potieria has about five minutes in the tank and has only reached the third round in 1 of his previous 8 bouts. Furthermore, Bellato has only gone the distance in 1 of his 13 pro bouts.
Under 1.5 Rounds: Supporting UFC Austin Facts
- Bellato has gone the distance in just one of his pro-MMA bouts
- 90% of Potieria’s pro-MMA losses were by KO/TKO
- Potieria has seen under 1.5 rounds in 4 of his previous 5 bouts
UFC Pick: Under 1.5 Rounds (-190) [1.90u returns 1u profit] at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
