The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to Canadian shores this weekend, as Edmonton locals are gifted 14 fights of MMA action in what looks to be a talent-stacked fight card!
Derrick Lewis, Jhonata Diniz, Marc-Andre Barriault, and Dustin Stoltzfus are involved in two main card bangers, and I’m seeing some betting value worth our interest.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into my favorite UFC Fight Night Edmonton main card analysis and predictions.
Picks Summary
- Jhonata Diniz ML (-160)
- Marc-Andre Barriault ML (-190)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
UFC Edmonton Event Information
- Date & Time: Saturday, November 02, 2024 – 05:00 PM ET
- Location: Rogers Place, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
- Scheduled Fights: 14
- Main Event: Brandon Moreno vs. Amir Albazi (UFC Flyweight Bout)
Derrick Lewis vs. Jhonata Diniz
UFC Edmonton Heavyweight Main Card Bout
Derrick Lewis
We still don’t know if Derrick Lewis ever found Ronda Rousey, but one thing is for sure: his balls won’t be as hot in the minus temperatures of Edmonton, Alberta, this weekend.
Jokes aside, Derrick Lewis is a national treasure for US fight fans. Not because he’s the most technically gifted or athletic heavyweight on the roster, but because he’s the company’s most devastating heavyweight knockout artist, and 15 knockouts during his decade-long tenure for the UFC is evidence of this.
- Lewis Pro MMA Record: 28-12-0
- Lewis KOs: 23
- Lewis Submissions: 1
Jhonata Diniz
Unlike “The Black Beast,” Jhonata Diniz is a fresh-faced, newly signed UFC heavyweight whose career is just starting. Despite having just two fights, both of which took place this year (2-0), he’s receiving the opportunity of a lifetime this weekend. A victory over Lewis would catapult his stock value and boost him right into the top-15 rankings.
- Diniz Pro MMA Record: 8-0
- Diniz KOs: 7
- Diniz Submissions: 0
Lewis vs. Diniz: Fight Tape Analysis
We know what Derrick Lewis is all about… One flush punch, and any opponent, big or small, new or old, could be looking at the stars. Lewis’s career and name value have been built on his one-punch knockout power, and although he has mixed in takedowns once or twice during his pro tenure, he’s often looking for the kill shot to make it an early night.
Diniz poses an interesting threat to Lewis and one test he hasn’t met in recent years… an elite striking background. The Brazilian lacks wrestling, grappling, and jiu-jitsu, but his striking credentials are world-class. As a former GLORY kickboxing heavyweight champion, he will own a significant technical advantage over the heavy-hitting Lewis.
UFC Edmonton Main Card Odds & Prediction
The last time we watched Lewis’ power get outmatched by an elite striker was the Ciryl Gane bout in 2021, which ended with a round-three knockout loss. I do envision a similar scenario playing out here.
Lewis, as always, is live for a knockout, but from a technical standpoint, he will be outclassed at range, with Diniz dancing around him and landing at will.
The UFC pricing with OddsTraders’ top sportsbooks places Diniz as the betting favorite, and this -160 price speaks volumes, considering the UFC experience heavily siding with Lewis. It just goes to show how talented of a striker Diniz is. Whether it’s by knockout or decision, I expect the Brazilian striking aficionado to make his name known by overcoming his veteran foe.
UFC Pick: Diniz ML (-160) [1.6u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
Marc-Andre Barriault vs. Dustin Stoltzfus
UFC Edmonton Middleweight Main Card Bout
Marc-Andre Barriault
A 5-7-1 UFC record isn’t the most tempting on paper. Still, the likes of Anthony Hernandez, Joe Pyfer, and Chris Curtis have presented Marc-Andre Barriault with some incredibly difficult matchups of late and ones where he can still hold his head high even in defeat.
Outside of top-ranked middleweights, MAB has steamrolled the competition for the most part. Fortunately, this Quebec native is loved by Canada, and the opposition levels for him have certainly dropped as we expect his confidence in success to be high.
- Barriault Pro MMA Record: 16-8-0
- Barriault KOs: 10
- Barriault Submissions: 1
Dustin Stoltzfus
Dustin Stolzfus continues to struggle to find consistency. In fact, he’s barely won fights since arriving at the promotion whatsoever. He has lost five of his seven UFC bouts since 2020 and, most notably, has raised questions about his ability to fight through adversity, with four of his five UFC losses coming by KO/TKO or submission.
- Stoltzfus Pro MMA Record: 15-6-0
- Stoltzfus KOs: 2
- Stoltzfus Submissions: 6
Barriault vs. Stoltzfus: Fight Tape Analysis
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Stoltzfus enter UFC Edmonton with a wrestling game plan and attempt to outmaneuver Barriault in grappling exchanges where he’ll likely have a jiu-jitsu advantage. He’s not lost in the striking realm but does lack power behind his strikes, which could be an issue when faced with such a unit of a man.
Unfortunately for him, Barriault is excellent in the clinch and cage wrestling, and the big cage won’t present open mat takedowns. MAB is also a non-stop aggressive fighter when he’s pressuring. As I don’t expect Stoltzfus to earn his respect in striking exchanges, I can only envision the hometown favorite’s confidence growing, round by round.
UFC Edmonton Main Card Odds & Prediction
MAB is a grinder, a versatile mixed martial artist with plenty of fight-finishing potential. With the Canadian crowd screaming his name and the pride of the country on his shoulders, returning to the win column shouldn’t be a problem, especially with the level of competition dropping compared to recent opponents,
The UFC odds place Barriault as the betting favorite, and rightfully so. Losses to top-level competition taint his record, but Stoltzfus is far from that, so backing him on the moneyline in his home country feels like a viable wagering position.
UFC Pick: Barriault ML (-190) [1.9 returns 1u profit] at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
