The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to the octagon with a sprinkle of tea and crumpets as England’s capital presents an absolute banger of a fight card this Saturday! Â
Kevin Holland, Gunnar Nelson, Nathaniel Wood, and Morgan Charriere are involved in two main card bangers, and I’m seeing some serious betting value up for grabs at top sportsbooks.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into my favorite UFC London main card betting picks, with in-depth fight analysis for each prediction!
Picks Summary
- Nelson/Holland Under 2.5 Rounds (-160)
- Nathaniel Wood by Decision (+200)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
UFC London Event Information
- Date & Time: Saturday, March 22, 2025 – 01:00 PM ET
- Location: 02 Arena, London, UK
- Scheduled Fights: 13
- Main Event: Leon Edwards vs. Sean Brady (UFC Welterweight Title Bout)
Kevin Holland vs. Gunnar Nelson
UFC London Welterweight Main Card Bout
Kevin Holland
Since making his UFC debut in 2018, Holland has competed in 24 bouts!Â
You can put him down, but you certainly can’t keep him out! Sticking to the Kevin Holland way of life, the five-year UFC veteran is returning after losing just two months ago. While the ‘Trailblazer,’ with four losses in his last five bouts, is experiencing a rough patch, nobody can ever doubt this man’s passion for fighting.
- Holland Pro MMA Record: 26-13
- Holland KOs: 13
- Holland Submissions: 9
Gunnar Nelson
Gunnar Nelson is a welterweight staple in the UFC, and despite being an OG, he’s the opposite of Holland regarding in-cage activity. In 13 years of competing for the UFC, Nelson has fought in just 15 bouts, and while he’s still just 36 years old, we have to question the levels he’s able to compete at with so much inactivity between his octagon appearances.
- Nelson Pro MMA Record: 19-5-1
- Nelson KOs: 3
- Nelson Submissions: 14
Holland vs. Nelson: Fight Tape Analysis
So, this one’s quite simple: Holland will, with a significant reach, speed, and height advantage, beat the pi** out of Nelson on the feet. ‘Trailblazer’ isn’t too shabby in the jiu-jitsu department either, but defensive wrestling/grappling has been an issue.
In steps Nelson, a former ADCC grappling competitor and arguably one of the top grappling talents at 170 lbs. Â
Here’s the thing: while Holland’s kryptonite is undoubtedly his defensive wrestling, he’s moved from middleweight to welterweight, a division from which most of his UFC success has stemmed. Moreover, Holland hasn’t taken the punishment well, but Nelson just isn’t that style of fighter. While the grappling edge is obvious, I do believe Holland has the tools to out-whit an aging fighter whose activity is a cause for concern.
That said, Holland’s continued red flags in grounded situations cannot be trusted. In a striking battle, he’ll put Nelson out, but on the ground, it could be another submission loss waiting to happen.
UFC London Main Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing has placed a respectable -160 set of odds on the under 2 ½ rounds, and we’re dealing with two fighters who’ve experienced a combined 46 wins or losses by submission or knockout. Â
Holland by knockout, or Nelson by submission. Either way, the under 2 ½ rounds feel right, and it’s an outcome we can put our bankroll behind!
UFC Pick: Under 2.5 Rounds (-160) [1.6u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
Nathaniel Wood vs. Morgan Charriere
UFC London Featherweight Main Card Bout
Nathaniel Wood
Nathaniel Wood’s name has lingered in the rankings for almost seven years now, but not since his move to 135 lbs has he maintained such a positive win streak (4-1). Aged 31, Wood could be peeking. However, to truly test the featherweight landscape, he must make 2025 his year and prove that his moniker, ‘The Prospect,’ isn’t just for show.
- Wood Pro MMA Record: 20-6-0
- Wood KOs: 7
- Wood Submissions: 6
Morgan Charriere
Morgan Charriere doesn’t have the UFC resume of his weekend opponent. Still, it must be said that his regional scene record and opponents are among the most impressive talent-wise, which is why he was signed directly to the promotion without needing a DWCS appearance. It must also be noted that despite being 2-1, real fans know he defeated Chepe Mariscal, despite the judge’s giving him a split decision loss, and with Mariscal now at 5-0, said fight has aged very well.Â
- Charriere Pro MMA Record: 20-10-0
- Charriere KOs: 12
- Charriere Submissions: 3
Wood vs. Charriere: Fight Tape Analysis
With his judo black belt in tow, Charriere’s defensive grappling is a marvel, and he truly excels whenever the opposition pressures him. I can’t stress how talented the Frenchman is, and at 29, I expect a top-15 ranking position to emerge in the future.
That said, styles make fights, and there’s a reason why he’s fought to so many split decisions throughout his career, and that’s because he’s a counterfighter with too much patience. Wood isn’t that guy, and honestly, he is another excellent fighter across the board who won’t play into the game of Charriere.
I anticipate Wood’s outside fighting style will frustrate Charriere, who won’t receive the pressure he wants in order to counter, as he does best. Moreover, Wood’s speed and striking intelligence will likely deliver straight shots down the pipe, and his fluid footwork will instantly put him out of position once the shots have landed.
UFC London Main Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing places Charriere as the betting favorite, but the Englishman will thrive on home soil in a fight that could be incredibly close.
For me, the volume and overall activity of Wood’s complete MMA skill set will make the difference, and of course, a little home cooking doesn’t hurt. Most importantly, he won’t attack Charriere like a madman on the inside, thus removing the favorite’s best chance to make a difference.
Plus-money on Wood to win a decision on home soil? Woof, woof, the dogs are barking loudly.Â
UFC Pick: Wood by Decision (+200) [1 returns 2u profit] at Bet365
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