The UFC travels to the United Kingdom this weekend, and we’re covering all your betting needs for a royally brutal London fight card stacked with top-ranked and up-and-coming talent from the prelims to the main event!
It’s that time of the week: Let’s dive right into my most noteworthy betting picks and predictions for you to profit at the top-rated sportsbooks.
Picks Summary
- Jai Herbert ML (-105)
- Mick Parkin ML (-120)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Jai Herbert vs. Chris Padilla
UFC London Lightweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, March 22, 2025 – 08:05 PM ET at 02 Arena
Jai Herbert
Jai Herbert’s 3-4-1 UFC record is an injustice to his talent level. Since his 2020 debut, the former Cage Warriors champion has been faced with a killer row of opposition, including former top-ranked lightweight and UFC legend Francisco Trinaldo in his debut, a lightweight title challenger and top-10 fighter Renato Moicano, and the undefeated former featherweight champ Ilia Topuria.
Notably, when the competition level dropped for Herbert, his elite striking skills blossomed. And let’s not forget, his precise and dangerous kickboxing offense managed to drop Topuria, as he was within seconds of stunting ‘El Matadors’ rise to superstardom.
- Herbert Pro Record: 13-5-1
- Herbert KO/TKO Wins: 9
- Herbert Submission Wins: 1
Chris Padilla
You can’t help but appreciate the talents of Chris Padilla. This guy entered the UFC in 2024 as a former regional scene champion and got straight to work, no games. Two fights, two stoppage wins (1 submission, 1 KO/TKO doctors stoppage), and as a result, he’ll have an opportunity against the relatively known name of Jai Herbert on hostile territory.
- Padilla Pro Record: 15-6
- Padilla KO/TKO Wins: 8
- Padilla Submission Wins: 5
Herbert vs. Padilla: Fight Tape Analysis
Padilla has made a great account of himself thus far, ticking many boxes you want to see in an MMA skill set. Patience and fight intelligence are two noticeable assets of his that I believe in, but as the old saying goes: “Styles make fights.”
Herbert owns some of the cleanest, most technical offensive striking in the non-ranked section of the lightweight division. He will throw straight shots down the middle, move, rinse and repeat, and always take advantage of fighters willing to hang on the outside.
UFC London Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
Here’s the problem for Padilla: his patience and willingness to trade shots on the outside, I believe, will cost him here.
There’s a way to defeat Herbert, and a chess game of technical striking isn’t a wise approach. Padilla isn’t known as an inside boxer, and Herberts’ straights and jabs will be a warning even if he attempts to get wild. With Herbert’s defensive grappling also above average, I envision the hometown favorite taking this one on the scorecards.
UFC Pick: Jai Herbert ML (-105) at Caesars Sportsbook
Mick Parkin vs. Marcin Tybura
UFC London Heavyweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, March 22, 2025 – 08:05 PM ET at 02 Arena
Mick Parkin
England’s own Mick Parkin, most notably a training partner of the interim heavyweight champ, Tom Aspinall, has blasted through the UFC competition since joining the promotion in 2023, and his four-fight win streak has earned him a position in the top rankings.
However, he’s yet to face an opponent in the top 15, although this will change come Saturday once he enters the cage with a #15 Marcin Tybura. The time to prove his worth is now, and with an energetic London crowd in support, the Brit enters with an advantage before the fight has even begun.
- Parkin Pro Record: 10-0
- Parkin KO/TKO Wins: 6
- Parkin Submission Wins: 1
Marcin Tybura
Marcin Tybura is the veteran UFC heavyweight you can never doubt. When you think the chips are stacked against him, he’ll pull something out of his back pocket and maintain his position as a top-ranked heavyweight.
Even at the big old age of 39, the Polish power of Tybura has seen him win four of his last six fights, with his only losses coming against top-five-ranked heavyweights. His resume is impressive, his skill set is diverse, and most importantly, his losses over the last five years have only come against the elite of the elite.
- Tybura Pro Record: 26-9
- Tybura KO/TKO Wins: 9
- Tybura Submission Wins: 8
Parkin vs. Tybura: Fight Tape Analysis
Of course, there’s an obvious skill gap between Parkin and his training partner Tom Aspinall. However, something has to be said about training every day with the best heavyweight in the world, surely?
Either way, at 29 and with four straight wins in the UFC under his belt, Parkin has displayed excellent boxing, trustworthy cardio and durability that won’t die, thus making a name for himself without the assistance of the interim champ.
For the most part, and although he’s shown an ability to out-strike foes in the past, Tybura thrives on the ground where his BJJ black belt can be let loose. Factor in his UFC experience against some of the promotion’s greatest heavyweights, and you’ve got a gatekeeper who isn’t willing to let any old big man enter the top rankings without a fight!
UFC London Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds almost split this fight down the middle. I agree with the price, and I agree that it’s a tough one to call until you consider the outside variables, which could play a huge role. Tybura is 39, ten years Parkin’s senior. In a fight where cardio, output and durability could be a difference-maker, you have to side with the younger, fresher heavyweight who owns that longevity factor.
There’s a reason why close to 70% of fighters with a 10-year age advantage win in the UFC, and that’s because the body just isn’t capable of such brutal punishment forever. I expect to see this play out on Saturday, where the faster, more durable and hometown favorite will prove his worth as a top-ranked heavyweight.
UFC Pick: Mick Parkin ML (-120) at Caesars Sportsbook
*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-Gambler
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
