The Ultimate Fighting Championship shifts the octagon to Macau for the first time in a decade this weekend. With an absolute banger of a fight card scheduled, it’s only right that I provide you with my informed betting analysis.
Kenan Song, Muslim Salikhov, Mingyang Zhang and Ozzy Diaz are involved in two main card bouts, and I’m seeing some serious betting value up for grabs.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into my favorite UFC Macau main card analysis and predictions.
Picks Summary
- Kenan Song ML (+160)
- Zhang ML & Under 2.5 Rounds (-188)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
UFC Macau Event Information
- Date & Time: Saturday, November 23, 2024 – 03:00 PM ET
- Location: Galaxy Arena, Macau
- Scheduled Fights: 13
- Main Event: Petr Yan vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (UFC Bantamweight Bout)
Kenan Song vs. Muslim Salikhov
UFC Macau Welterweight Main Card Bout
Kenan Song
Kenan Song has spent seven years competing in the UFC welterweight division, and despite a lack of consistency that displays a 6-4 promotional record, with home advantage and an underdog price as opposed to a 40-year-old opponent, he’s an underdog fighter we cannot ignore.
- Song Pro MMA Record: 22-8-0
- Song KOs: 9
- Song Submissions: 9
Muslim Salikhov
Muslim Salikhov, unlike most of his Russian peers, has been a kickboxing ace for most of his pro-MMA career. Although he isn’t lost in the grappling realm, he doesn’t really have the cardio to play around in grounded situations. He’s 7-4 under the UFC banner, but three of those defeats have arrived in his five most recent appearances, and aged 40, he’s going to struggle to maintain a winning record.
- Salikhov Pro MMA Record: 20-5-0
- Salikhov KOs: 12
- Salikhov Submissions: 3
Kenan Song vs. Salikhov: Fight Tape Analysis
It was impressive to witness Salikhov prove there was some fight in the old dog when he defeated a formidable striker in Santiago Ponzinibbio last time out. However, this recency bias is likely the reason behind his current moneyline price. Yes, he’s a respectable striker, but defeating fellow aging fighters isn’t the best sample to judge his ceiling against younger and equally experienced foes.
That’s precisely what Kenan is: just as experienced and significantly younger. The speed difference will likely be crucial for the Chinese fighter in this contest, and while I wouldn’t be surprised to witness some moments of success for Salikhov, expecting him to maintain tempo and striking numbers with the younger, faster opponent doesn’t seem probable.
UFC Macau Main Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing with our top-rated sportsbooks places Salikhov as the favorite, and this price point feels completely off. Sure, Kenan isn’t a world beater, but a 40-year-old Salikhov is losing reactionary speed and ceiling event by event, and as Randy Brown proved, the Russian can be out-struck, and his durability could be up for question.
Kenan has the speed to lead the striking numbers and the power to finish this fight. Considering the odds, the event location and the age of both men (including the relatively equal striking skill set at this stage of their respective careers), backing the underdog at +160 feels like a gift from the oddsmakers.
UFC Pick: Kenan Song ML (+160) [1u returns 1.6u profit] at Bet365
Zhang Mingyang vs. Ozzy Diaz
UFC Macau Light Heavyweight Main Card Bout
Mingyang Zhang
China’s own Mingyang Zhang books his second UFC fight on an event’s main card opening bout, and deservingly so! This heavy-hitting fighter with some respectable grappling in his back pocket has been a delight to watch in the cage thus far.
After collecting a 16-6 pro-MMA record on the regional scene and Road to UFC, Zhang made an impactful UFC debut earlier this year when he flatlined a fellow up-and-comer, Brendson Ribeiro, inside two minutes. This win added another KO/TKO to an already impressive finish rate that’s seen Zhang compete in 23 fights and go to the judges’ scorecards on just one occasion.
- Zhang Pro MMA Record: 17-6-0
- Zhang KOs: 11
- Zhang Submissions: 6
Ozzy Diaz
If you thought Zhang was scared of the judges, his UFC Macau opponent, Ozzy Diaz, takes it one step further. This product of Kings MMA has eleven pro bouts to his name and has never fought to a decision during this time.
Diaz, however, will be making his UFC debut, and although he’s finished back-to-back fights for the LFA via strikes, he did falter on Dana White’s Contender Series to a round two Joe Pyfer knockout.
- Diaz Pro MMA Record: 9-2-0
- Diaz KOs: 7
- Diaz Submissions: 2
Zhang vs. Diaz: Fight Tape Analysis
This contest is perfect to open up UFC Macau’s main card because this pair of up-and-comers arrive in the cage with one thing in mind… violence! It wouldn’t be crazy to expect this one to end inside the first round based on the high-pressure, knockout-worthy strikes that both Zhang and Diaz will be throwing. Grappling? Wrestling? Possible, but unlikely with these two fighters who’ve enjoyed a career where striking has been their go-to.
Zhang is susceptible to strikes, but he’s so willing to take strikes to give some because of the dangerous amount of power he presents. Diaz shouldn’t be overlooked as an aggressor, but he may have met his match with Zhang, particularly in terms of raw power and finishing capability.
Zhang’s going to throw jabs, hooks, elbows, uppercuts, knees and all of the tools in the box. Yes, Diaz is a respectable kickboxer. However, in a fight that’s probable to produce violence, it’s Zhang for the win, all the way!
UFC Macau Main Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds place Zhang as the betting favorite, but the juice is too much to sip. The good news is that this fight isn’t going the distance, so when you combine Zhang’s ML with the under 2.5 rounds, we can boost our price to -118.
Whether it’s the first, second or early third round, Zhang will find the kill shot, or we’ll witness a club and sub situation where the hometown favorite continues his violent finishing win streak.
UFC Pick: Zhang ML & Under 2.5 Rounds (-188) [1.88 returns 1u profit] at Bet365
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