The UFC travels to China this weekend, and we’re covering all your betting needs for a Macau fight card stacked with up-and-coming talent, as well as some familiar faces, from top to bottom.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into the most noteworthy betting picks for the UFC Macau preliminary card bouts.
Picks Summary
- Hernandez ML (-188)
- Feng & Over 2.5 (-175)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Carlos Hernandez vs. Nyamjargal Tumendemberel
UFC Macau Flyweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, November 23, 2024 – 03:00 AM ET at Galaxy Arena
Carlos Hernandez
Carlos Hernandez has struggled under the UFC banner since booking his ticket to the big show on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2021. A 2-3 record, including two straight losses from his most recent appearances, doesn’t present much hope for bettors. Still, styles make fights, and Saturday’s opponent might be the perfect bounce-back position for the Illinois native.
- Hernandez Pro Record: 9-4
- Hernandez KO/TKO Wins: 0
- Hernandez Submission Wins: 4
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel
Say his full name in rapid succession in front of a mirror seven times, and this Yakuza-looking, scary Mongolian will appear to haunt you. Well, we know that’s impossible because Nyamjargal Tumendemberel is difficult enough to pronounce one time.
For the purpose of this article, we’ll go by his moniker “Art of Knockout,” shorten that to AOF, and we’re good. Can AOF find the same finishing success he garnered on the Asian regionals under the UFC banner?
AOF looked great in his recent Road to UFC performance, as he snatched up a rear-naked choke in the first round. However, much like many Asian up-and-comers, they lack experience versus elite talent, and his weekend opponent, despite the undesirable record, will present his toughest test to date.
- Tumendemberel Pro Record: 8-0
- Tumendemberel KO/TKO Wins: 2
- Tumendemberel Submission Wins: 5
Hernandez vs. Tumendemberel: Fight Tape Analysis
From the regional scene evidence and Road to UFC fight tape, Tumendemberel has displayed a chaotic style in the octagon. He wings heavy shots and goes crazy in the pocket, and although he lacks technical prowess, watching him blast through opponents with sheer aggression makes him an entertaining fighter who’s consistently looking for the kill.
The obvious red flags in Tumendemberels’ game are experienced. The fact that he’s never fought a UFC-caliber opponent means that backing him this weekend versus an experienced foe in Hernandez would force us to blind bet, and that isn’t viable. His career highlights are cool but against no-names, and the real test arrives in Macau.
Hernandez is a rugged Mexican boxer, and most notable is the experience he’s garnered against a much greater level of competition. He lacks power on the feet, but as a technical striker, he should have the simpler path to out-striking the Mongolian, who additionally won’t present a wrestling threat, which has caused issues in the past.
In fact, Hernandez is great at transitioning from combinations into level changes, and Tumendemberel’s clear weakness is returning to his feet from grounded positions. Therefore, wrestling might be a viable game plan for the favorite, who also has great cardio to see through said path to victory.
UFC Macau Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds see Hernandez enter UFC Macau as a -188 favorite.
Hernandez’s love for a split decision is a concern, especially as he’ll be the away fighter. However, the previously mentioned wrestling game plan could see Tumendemberel on his back for fifteen minutes. On the feet, his wild, striking style will be outnumbered by the cleaner, more technical boxer.
UFC Pick: Hernandez ML (-188) [1.88u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
Xiaocan Feng vs. Ming Shi
UFC Macau Women’s Strawweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, November 23, 2024 – 03:00 AM ET at Galaxy Arena
Xiaocan Feng
The Road to UFC women’s strawweight finale comes down to this very matchup, and it’s the 22-year-old Xiaocan Feng who seemingly has the chips stacked in her favor.
Despite being just 22, Feng has collected a 10-2 pro-MMA record, has finished five of her 10 victories, and as she heads into the final, an eight-fight win streak is supported by confidence, speed, and no losses since very early in her career.
- Feng Pro Record: 10-2-0
- Feng KO/TKO Wins: 4
- Feng Submission Wins: 1
Ming Shi
Aged 30, Ming Shi will technically be the more experienced fighter of the two despite not having elite-level experience. However, the Kunming native has scrapped during her four-fight win streak, including a split decision to reach the Road to UFC final this weekend.
- Shi Pro Record: 16-5-0
- Shi KO/TKO Wins: 1
- Shi Submission Wins: 6
Feng vs. Shi: Fight Tape Analysis
She’s an unknown name, but Feng is a confident striker with smooth technical kickboxing. When you look at past bouts, grappling has been an issue for her, but Ming Shi isn’t the most formidable wrestler, and in a bout that holds a high probability of remaining on the feet, it isn’t easy to not envision Feng as the A-side here.
A side-by-side striking analysis of Feng and Shi points towards the former as the significantly more talented striker. This is MMA, but as previously mentioned, Shi doesn’t have a big enough wrestling upside to cause threats in this area. We should expect a kickboxing clash for the most part, and this undeniably favors the favorite!
UFC Macau Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing with OddsTrader’s top sportsbooks has made Feng a significant betting favorite, but the durability of both ladies will take this fight to a judges’ decision. As a result, we can add over 2½ rounds to Feng’s moneyline and reap the pricing rewards.
Going the distance has been common for both women, and we can expect something similar come Saturday. That said, while durability might take Shi to the scorecards, it won’t be enough to prevent the cleaner, more precise kickboxer in Feng from getting the nod.
UFC Pick: Feng & Over 2.5(-175) [1.75u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
