The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to the octagon, with an absolute banger of a fight card set to take place in Mexico City, Mexico, this weekend!
Rosas Jr., Morales, Martinez, and Oliveira are involved in two main card bangers, and I’m seeing some serious betting value up for grabs.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into my analysis and predictions for the UFC Mexico City main card.
Picks Summary
- Raul Rosas Jr. ML & Over 1.5 (-189)
- David Martinez ML & Fight Doesn’t Go the Distance (+130)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
UFC Mexico City Event Information
- Date & Time: Saturday, March 29, 2025 – 04:00 PM EDT
- Location: Arena CDMX
- Scheduled Fights: 13
- Main Event: Brandon Moreno vs. Steve Erceg (UFC Flyweight Bout)
Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Vince Morales
UFC Bantamweight Main Card Bout
Raul Rosas Jr.
The youngest fighter on the UFC roster returns, as Raul Rosas Jr. continues his quest to break Jon Jones’ record as the youngest UFC champion in company history. However, the Mexican representative is far from a championship-calibre fighter, and he must first work his way through the shark-infested field of unranked bantamweight opponents.
To date, there’s no denying Rosas’ growth; he’s 4-1 for the promotion with two submission victories, ahead of his sixth UFC appearance versus a tough and gritty Morales, in front of his motherland this weekend!
- Rosas Jr. Pro MMA Record: 10-1
- Rosas Jr. KOs: 2
- Rosas Jr. Submissions: 6
Vince Morales
Vince Morales returns just six weeks after his most recent UFC bout against Elijah Smith, and with a 3-7 promotional record, it’s quite clear that the matchmakers are setting him up for failure here. As a journeyman, Morales doesn’t offer much beyond toughness and durability, and most worryingly, his takedown defense has been a persistent concern.
- Morales Pro MMA Record: 16-9-0
- Morales KOs: 7
- Morales Submissions: 5
Rosas Jr. vs. Morales: Fight Tape Analysis
The UFC is treading carefully with Rosas Jr… They see a future star of Mexican MMA in ‘El Niño Problema,’ and once again, he’s being gifted with an opponent who’s perfect to maintain his steady growth; he needs to avoid prolonged striking exchanges.
Morales is a low-output striker who is gritty and durable, but his questionable takedown defense has plagued his professional MMA career to date. There’s no doubt that, versus Rosas Jr.’s inexperienced and less-than-desirable striking game, Morales can win a kickboxing battle. That said, he’s so slow and plodding that a clear grappling path to victory should be taken advantage of by the young up-and-comer.
UFC Main Card Odds & Prediction
Morales has a noteworthy level of physicality, and he’s a durable force that hasn’t been stopped during his UFC tenure or in the last five years of MMA competition. The problem is that many of his opponents, even those he has won against, have seen him get taken to the ground, and that’s the wheelhouse of Rosas, the jiu-jitsu ace.
The UFC odds place Rosas Jr. as the betting favorite, and this isn’t surprising. Unfortunately, the juice is too high for single plays, but if you add over 1 ½ rounds to the moneyline, a reasonable -189 line can be found.
Morales is tough and defensively skilled enough in BJJ to prevent an early stoppage, but ultimately, he will lose, as Rosas Jr. will secure another victory, either by decision or via a late-round three stoppage.
UFC Pick: Rosas Jr. ML & Over 1.5 (-189) [1.89u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
David Martinez vs. Saimon Oliveira
UFC Bantamweight Main Card Bout
David Martinez
Mexico’s own David Martinez makes his long-awaited UFC debut this year, and prior to reaching the big stage, this Mexican national has been a wrecking ball against regional scene opponents he’s faced.
With 80% of his 11 pro-MMA career wins coming by knockout, you already know what he’ll be looking to achieve come Saturday. A stoppage victory did elude him last time out, but his Dana White’s Contender Series win was arguably against a more difficult opponent than the one he’s facing this weekend.
- Martinez Pro MMA Record: 11-1
- Martinez KOs: 9
- Martinez Submissions: 0
Saimon Oliveira
Welcome back to the octagon, Saimon Oliveira…
Who?
Exactly; you don’t know Oliveira because, since he joined the UFC in 2022, he has fought twice, lost both of those fights, and is now 33 years old in a talent-filled bantamweight division.
Not only is Oliveira’s level below UFC caliber, but he was fortunate to get a contract from DWCS 2021 in the first place. His ceiling is low, and with a trip to Mexico, at altitude this Saturday, he’s nothing but a lamb to the slaughter for a new and budding Mexican prospect.
- Oliveira Pro MMA Record: 18-5
- Oliveira KOs: 5
- Oliveira Submissions: 11
Martinez vs. Oliveira: Fight Tape Analysis
Oliviera, where do we start? He’s a wild striker with zero wrestling offense and a decent level of BJJ that’s assisted him throughout the majority of his pro-MMA career. His durability has been compromised, his cardio isn’t something to brag about, and now he’s expected to fight a Mexican savage in hostile territory.
Oliveira isn’t a noteworthy striker; his wrestling is poor, and he’s tasked with fighting a brutal kickboxer in Martinez, who is one of the biggest favorites on the UFC Mexico City card. After watching Daniel Marcos bully Oliveira in striking exchanges last time, expect a repeat from Martinez, whose striking intelligence, output, and finishing power have been on point in recent years.
UFC Mexico City Main Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing with OddsTraders’ top sportsbooks place Martinez as the betting favorite, and rightfully so. The Mexican newcomer will have a standout performance this week, whether it’s in the first or third round, he’ll finish his food and do it emphatically.
To boost our odds from Martinez’s juiced moneyline, add the ‘Fight Doesn’t go the Distance’ alongside and cash that plus-money ticket when he outboxes his Brazilian opponent from start to finish.
UFC Pick: Martinez ML & Fight Doesn’t Go the Distance (+130) [1 returns 1.30u profit] at Bet365
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
