Viva La Mexico! Dana White and the UFC return to Mexico for the first time since Noche UFC this weekend, and we’re covering all your betting needs for a Mexico City fight card brimming with top-tier talent from top to bottom.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into the most noteworthy betting picks from top-rated sportsbooks for the UFC Mexico preliminary card bouts.
Picks Summary
- Christian Rodriguez ML (-160)
- Chairez by KO/TKO or Decision (-116)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Melquizael Costa vs. Christian Rodriguez
UFC Mexico Featherweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, March 29, 2025 – 04:00 PM EDT at the CDMX Arena
Melquizael Costa
Melquizael Costa holds a 3-2 promotional record, is 28 years old, and is riding a two-fight win streak due to back-to-back submissions, and for the most part has displayed a well-rounded and somewhat impressive skill set.
- Costa Pro Record: 22-7 ,
- Costa KO/TKO Wins: 7
- Costa Submission Wins: 8
Christian Rodriguez
Roufus Sport standout Christian Rodriguez, better known as ‘CeeRod,’ returns. Behind a 5-2 UFC record, this up-and-coming fighter has earned the reputation of ‘prospect killer’ by defeating Raul Rosas Jr., Cameron Saaiman, and Isaac Dulgarian to date.
This 27-year-old is a problem. He’s continuously evolving, fight-to-fight, and despite being caught by Julian Erosa with a guillotine in 2024, he’s been a solid multi-weight competitor to date, and one we should keep our eye on.
- Rodriguez Pro Record: 12-2
- Rodriguez KO/TKO Wins: 3
- Rodriguez Submission Wins: 4
Costa vs. Rodriguez: Fight Tape Analysis
Costa’s takedown defense has been horrid; his striking is quite basic, and without sounding overly critical, I don’t understand why the oddsmakers have lined this fight so closely.
CeeRod has long been faced with opponents desperate to ground him. But guess what? Even when the offensive wrestling takedowns landed, he still went on to win most of those fights, and we cannot hold getting caught with a tricky Erosa submission against him. Then consider that he’s also landed a fair amount of takeowns of his own, factor in Costa’s weak TD defense, and I really don’t envision him struggling in any potential grappling scenarios.
So, then we look at the striking. Well, with cardio being a significant factor in Rodriguez’s ability to overcome the odds in past fights he was losing early, expect the altitude in Mexico to favor him undoubtedly. Furthermore, strike for strike, Costa’s basic offense won’t likely be the more impressive, and versus an opponent that doesn’t slow down, it seems like CeeRod’s fight to lose.
UFC Mexico Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds have placed Rodriguez as a slight -160 favorite on the moneyline. ‘The Prospect Killer’ will live up to his name and make these odds look like great value, especially considering that his opponent isn’t even known as a prospect.
UFC Pick: Rodriguez Moneyline (-160) [1.6u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
Edgar Chairez vs. CJ Vergara
UFC Mexico Flyweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, March 29, 2025 – 04:00 PM EDT at Arena CDMX
Edgar Chairez
Fighting in an arena full of Mexican fans backing him, Edgar Chairez might finally be gifted with a stylistic matchup that suits his style. With the mile-high altitude of Mexico City, this durability and high-output flyweight is favored to improve upon the 1-2-1 UFC record that he currently holds.
- Chairez Pro Record: 11-6
- Chairez KO/TKO Wins: 4
- Chairez Submission Wins: 7
CJ Vergara, with a 3-4 promotional record, has struggled for consistency since joining the UFC in 2021. Now, with his first fight in 2025, he returns from back-to-back losses, including one first-round knockout, with a desperate need to return to the win column and prove his point in hostile territory.
- Vergara Pro Record: 12-6-1
- Vergara KO/TKO Wins: 7
- Vergara Submission Wins: 0
Chairez vs. Vergara: Fight Tape Analysis
Neither fighter has delivered epic performances against high-level opposition worth highlighting. Still, I do consider the matchmaking of Chairez thus far, who has evidently struggled with his takedown defense against opposition that has had the talent to take advantage of this weakness.
So, we then look at Vergara, who, for the most part, has been strictly focused on striking, holds a 0% takedown rate, and should be willing to give the Mexican exactly what he wants in a three-round striking affair (if it lasts that long).
With that being said, we now move on to how their striking skills match up. Well, the output of Chairez is unquestionably more favorable, and while anyone can get caught, he’s also displayed a solid level of durability throughout his career, having never been finished. Factor in the altitude and cardio concerns, as well as age, and again, all of these pointers side with Chairez. While a tight striking battle could play out, I wouldn’t want to go against the Mexico City judge by backing the Mexican fighter with such a potential outcome.
UFC Mexico Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing makes Chairez a significant favorite, and while I don’t agree with the current moneyline price, I do expect him to walk away victorious.
For the first time in a long time, Chairez won’t be worrying about takedowns and ground control, which have previously worked against him. Whether he takes a nod from the judges or manages to test Vergara’s chin like others have, the striking output of Chairez and a solid chin should be enough to run through a journeyman this weekend.
UFC Pick: Chairez by KO/TKO or Decision (-116) [1.16u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
