The UFC returns to Brazil this Saturday, and a main card clash between a BJJ elitist, Rodolfo Vieira, and a striking purist, Armen Petrosyan, has triggered our betting interests.
Elsewhere on the main card, a rematch between Rodrigo Nascimento and Don’Tale Mayes is expected to provide a similar result as last time. Still, the oddsmakers have failed to adjust their lines.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into the most noteworthy betting picks for the UFC Sao Paulo main card.
Picks Summary
Rodolfo Vieira vs. Armen Petrosyan
UFC Sao Paulo Middleweight Main Card Bout
Saturday, November 4, 2023 – 09:35 PM ET at Ibirapuera Arena
Brazilian jiu-jitsu legend Rodolfo Vieira (9-2-0 pro-MMA) returns home this weekend. Although the majority of his combat sports career has taken place on the BJJ mats, his transition to pro-MMA has been an eventful one, to say the least.
Sure, he’s come unstuck versus solid takedown defense, and his striking was once a lot to be desired. However, despite being 34, we’ve witnessed an evolution in his striking, which poses a huge threat to those expecting to bully him behind a deceiving notion that he’s one-dimensional.
Armen Petrosyan (8-2-0) is quite the opposite of his weekend opponent; he’s a well-rounded striker who’s excellent at throwing shots at range, but with a point-fighting style displayed thus far, to extend his 3-1 UFC record, he must contemplate a more aggressive strategy during Saturday’s bout.
Vieira vs. Petrosyan: Fight Tape Analysis
Petrosyan is an excellent striker, and there’s no denying he’d wipe the floor with Vieira in a kickboxing bout. Unfortunately for him, this is mixed martial arts, and his lone loss in the UFC came against Caio Borralho, who utilized an offensive wrestling/grappling game plan to expose Petrosyan’s weakness.
And with the red flags flying on Petrosyan’s takedown defense and ground abilities, Rodolfo Vieira could be the worst stylistic matchup for him.
UFC Sao Paulo Main Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing with OddsTrader’s top sportsbooks is displaying close to even odds on this bout, but Vieira is the slight favorite at -110, and I love this pricing.
Black belt jiu-jitsu doesn’t always translate to MMA. Still, as Vieira gains more experience, we’re noticing positive signs that can assist him in more submission wins behind a noteworthy wrestling offensive and smart decisions in his striking skillset.
Cardio used to be a concern for the Brazilian. Still, it would seem he’s overcome this issue, and with Petrosyan being taken down in almost every UFC bout he’s competed in, it isn’t easy to look beyond the clearer path to victory this weekend, which I believe lies with Vieira.
UFC Pick: Vieira ML (-110) [1.10u returns 1u profit] at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Rodrigo Nascimento vs. Don’Tale Mayes
UFC Sao Paulo Heavyweight Main Card Bout
Saturday, November 4, 2023 – 10:25 PM ET at Ibirapuera Arena
Edging back-to-back closely fought split decisions in his previous two bouts doesn’t support Rodrigo Nascimento (10-1-0) as the highly touted prospect he entered the promotion with. The good news is that his Sao Paulo opponent is a rematch, and the first contest is still his only stoppage victory in the UFC to date.
Don’Tale Mayes (10-5-0) has the skills, but some of the in-octagon decision-making he’s displayed has much to be desired. A 3-3 UFC record could be worse, but with a trip to Brazil and an opponent he’s already lost to ahead, I’m surprised at the relatively low underdog price he’s entering Brazil with.
Nascimento vs. Mayes: Fight Tape Analysis
I’m unsure why the UFC has created this rematch, but the Brazilian competing on home soil is a sure-fire wager, in my opinion.
Nascimento is incredibly nimble for a heavyweight, throws a high output of strikes, and, as displayed in his first meeting with Mayes, the jiu-jitsu offense is always on hand to deliver a submission finish.
We’ve already witnessed this fight, and I don’t expect to see anything different this time. Nascimento has Mayes’ number, and the -180 odds are excellent compared to the other Brazilian money lines on this card.
UFC Sao Paulo Main Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds have placed Nascimento as the betting favorite, and after watching Mayes crumble in the first fight, you could say we’re receiving a gift at -180 on the Brazilian.
There’s no need to overthink this; the first result combined with noteworthy speed and output alongside the home country advantage is enough for me to lay the slight juice on Nascimento.
UFC Pick: Nascimento ML (-180) [1.80u returns 1u profit] at Unibet
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
