The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to the octagon this weekend and it’ll be Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, preparing for a stacked fight card!
Shara ‘Bullet’ Magomedov, Venom Page, Fares Ziam, and Mike Davis are involved in two main card bangers, and I’m seeing some serious betting value up for grabs.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into my favorite UFC Saudi Arabia main card analysis and predictions.
Picks Summary
- Shara Magomedov ML (-189) at Bet365
- Mike Davis ML (-140) at Caesar Sportsbook
UFC Saudi Arabia Event Information
- Date & Time: Saturday, February 1, 2025 – 09:00 AM ET
- Location: ANB Arena, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
- Scheduled Fights: 11
- Main Event: Israel Adesanya vs. Nassourdine Imavov (UFC Middleweight Bout)
Shara Magomedov vs. Michael Page
UFC Saudi Arabia Middleweight Main Card Bout
Shara Magomedov
Shara ‘Bullet’ had a lot of doubters heading into his most recent bout with Arman Petrosyan but two rounds and a double spinning backfist later, an emphatic highlight reel was born and those critics were silenced.
The Russian kickboxer is now looking at top-ranking position amongst UFC middleweights and as he’ll face another fellow striker this Saturday in Riyadh, he’s incredibly live to extend his hype and unbeaten record.
- Magomedov Pro MMA Record: 15-0
- Magomedov KOs: 12
- Magomedov Submissions: 0
Michael Page
To the all seeing eye, Michael Page is top-tier talent. Behind a 22-3 record the man possesses a highlight reel most fighters could only dream off. The problem is that he arrived to the UFC in his late thirties and the majority of his impressive knockout wins were against no-name Bellator fighters.
With an opportunity to crash a rising prospect, the 37 year old from England can shift the public opinion with a victory, it’s just difficult to believe he’s worth the money the UFC paid for him at this point of his career and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him lose a second octagon outing this weekend.
- Page Pro MMA Record: 22-3
- Page KOs: 12
- Page Submissions: 4
Magomedov vs. Page: Fight Tape Analysis
Two kickboxers with a shared record of 24 knockouts… Can you guess what style of fight we’re getting? Yes, these two men are going to trade strikes. The problem is, we could see too much respect and a boring 15-minute decision, or an all-out war where they’re both looking to take heads. Either way, I favor Magomedov in both spots, as the outside variables such as age, hype, and career trajectory all favor him.
Page presents an awkward striking, fast movement, and one of the most difficult-to-read styles in the UFC. Unfortunately, all of his movement theatrics on the feet haven’t done much at a UFC level, and with Magomedov likely having the more impactful strikes of the two, even with the potential of delivering more output, I envision the judges’ handing this one to the undefeated Russian.
UFC Saudi Arabia Main Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds place Magomedov as the betting favorite, and rightfully so. I mean no disrespect to Page, his career bouts have been delightful to watch, but inside the UFC octagon I struggle to see him finding the same success he once had.
This one’s simple from a betting perspective; back Magomedov on the moneyline as it’s currently priced reasonably.
UFC Pick: Magomedov ML (-189) [1.89u returns 1u profit] at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Fares Ziam vs. Mike Davis
UFC Saudi Arabia Lightweight Main Card Bout
Fares Ziam
France’s Fares Ziam has been on fire of late, and since splitting his first four UFC bouts (2-2) he’s since collected a four-fight win streak that includes a brutal knee knockout over Matt Frevola back in September.
- Ziam Pro MMA Record: 16-4-0
- Ziam KOs: 5
- Ziam Submissions: 5
Mike Davis
The same can be said for Mike Davis. The New York native hasn’t lost a fight since he fought Gilbert Burns in 2019 and he’s riding four-fight win streak after finishing Natan Levy with a triangle choke back in March 2024.
- Davis Pro MMA Record: 11-2-0
- Davis KOs: 7
- Davis Submissions: 4
Ziam vs. Davis: Fight Tape Analysis
Ziam, known for his fluid footwork and top-notch offensive striking has delightfully evolved into a worthy lightweight contender compared to the guy we watched struggle for consistency early on. The problem is that one hole, wrestling, and although he’s a consistent threat on the feet, his takedown defense has a lot to desire.
Three of Ziam’s previous four opponents managed to land takedowns, and it was Jai Herbert, a fellow striker, who didn’t. Despite his success, the wrestling threat remains a concern for Ziam, who’s now faced with a respected wrestler and an opponent in Davis who’s been equally as successful in the octagon of late.
The only problem for Davis has been activity. I don’t know why he’s only fought three times since 2020, but to make a serious run at 155lbs, he’ll need to step it up. That said, this doesn’t remove his potential, and the kid who was once a prospect has grown into a man with a versatile set of skills capable of out-working a one-dimensional fighter such as Ziam.
UFC Saudi Arabia Main Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing with OddsTraders’ top sportsbooks places Davis the betting favorite, and it’s hard to argue this pricing. Davis will arguably be the best wrestler Ziam has fought, and if those past opponents of the Frenchman effortlessly found the takedowns, I’d expect the favorite to easily replicate it but with greater top control success.
Not to mention, Davis can hold his own in the striking department. This won’t be his preferred path to victory, but we must side with the complete mixed martial artist in this spot, espicially when the UFC odds on the moneyline aren’t bad whatsoever.
UFC Pick: Davis ML (-140) [1.4 returns 1u profit] at Caesar Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
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