The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to the octagon for one final event of 2024, and this banger of a fight card is taking the year out in style with a stacked line-up ready for the Florida sun!
Cub Swanson, Billy Quarantillo, Daniel Marcos, and Adrian Yanez are involved in two main card bouts, and I’ve spotted some serious betting value we can take advantage of.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into my favorite UFC Tampa main card analysis and predictions.
Picks Summary
- Billy Quarantillo ML (-155)
- Daniel Marcos ML (-172)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
UFC Tampa Event Information
- Date & Time: Saturday, December 14, 2024 – 07:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Amalie Arena, Tampa, Florida
- Scheduled Fights: 13
- Main Event: Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley (UFC Welterweight Bout)
Billy Quarantillo vs. Cub Swanson
UFC Tampa Featherweight Main Card Bout
Billy Quarantillo
Who doesn’t love Billy Q? He’s a lovable character with the heart of a warrior, and since his UFC debut five years ago, you’re going to struggle to find fight tape where the New York native is involved in a boring fight.
Win or lose, Quarantillo is a fan favorite at the sportsbooks simply because he’s going to fight for your money until the last dying breath. Six of his 10 UFC bouts failed to reach the judge’s scorecards, and if you’re looking for the perfect all-action fighter to compete on a main card of the UFC’s final event of the year, he’s that guy!
- Quarantillo Pro MMA Record: 18-6
- Quarantillo KOs: 8
- Quarantillo Submissions: 5
Cub Swanson
Cub Swanson is a legend and has been a household name for the UFC for thirteen consecutive years! At the age of 41, you’d start to think he’s no longer capable of matching the featherweight’s new generation, but you’d be surprisingly mistaken!
Swanson, having fought six times since 2020, has gone 3-3 in the octagon, thus proving there’s still some fight in the old dog yet. More impressively, two of Swanson’s three most recent victories came by knockout, including a wheel kick KO over Darren Elkins that still lives rent-free in our minds!
- Swanson Pro MMA Record: 29-14
- Swanson KOs: 12
- Swanson Submissions: 5
Quarantillo vs. Swanson: Fight Tape Analysis
Did someone say Fight of the Night contender? No matter which side of the fence you’re on, Quarantillo and Swanson will bring the heat from the opening bell, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see this one end in a shorter time than it takes for both fighter walkouts.
Swanson is known for his crisp boxing combinations, powerful shots, and decade-plus experience competing against the world’s best. Quarantillo, on the other hand, can do it all, whether in standing or grounded situations.
Offensively, both men are as tough and as skilled as they come. In contrast, defense has been a concern, particularly for Swanson when facing high-pressure fighters. It just so happens that Billy Q is a pressure machine, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see him finish this fight standing. However, should a wrestling game plan be implemented, this is where he can truly eliminate Swanson’s main threats and sail to victory.
When evaluating Swanson’s jiu-jitsu, it’s far from white belt level but still incomparable to that of the wrestling and grappling of Billy Q. Furthermore, Swanson’s cardio doesn’t quite match up to the energetic nature of Quarantillo’s in-cage efforts, and that’s why I believe he is the rightful betting favorite, and the one we should back on the moneyline this Saturday.
UFC Tampa Main Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds place Billy Q as a slight betting favorite at -155, and that’s a fair price considering the experience he’s up against. He should have the aggression to make Swanson tentative, be the faster fighter, and behind a six-year age gap,
UFC Pick: Quarantillo ML (-155) [1.55u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
Daniel Marcos vs. Adrian Yanez
UFC Tampa Bantamweight Main Card Bout
Daniel Marcos
As Peruvian standout Daniel Marcos approaches his tenth year as a professional mixed martial artist, an impressive 16-0 record remains intact despite joining the UFC to compete against the best featherweights MMA offers.
While he hasn’t reached the top rankings at 145 lbs in the UFC, he’s certainly made a great account of himself, winning three of his four appearances, with the outlier being a no-contest versus Aoriqileng due to a groin strike in a fight I believe he was winning on the scorecards.
- Marcos Pro MMA Record: 16-0
- Marcos KOs: 8
- Marcos Submissions: 0
Adrian Yanez
When Texas native Adrian Yanez entered the UFC bantamweight division in 2020, he went on a tear! A five-fight win streak sent him straight into the top 15 rankings, thus resulting in a growing fan base due to the knockout violence and excellent striking performances he delivered.
The hype was quickly derailed when Rob Font and Jonathan Martinez were his next opponents, as it was clear Yanez wasn’t ready for the upper echelon of 145lb talent just yet. All is not lost, however, and a return round one knockout earlier this year allowed Yanez to remind us what brought him to dance, as he now looks to continue proving his worth as a viable top-ranked competitor.
- Yanez Pro MMA Record: 17-5
- Yanez KOs: 11
- Yanez Submissions: 2
Marcos vs. Yanez: Fight Tape Analysis
What has been the recipe for Marcos’ sixteen-fight, unbeaten pro-MMA record? A high-level striking skillset. For Yanez, he’s got some of the smoothest, most precise boxing outside the top-15 featherweight rankings. As a result, this contest will be a striking-enthusiasts one to watch!
Marcos is often the more talented striker in his fights, and more importantly, he’s versatile with it. Whatever strikes are necessary, Marcos can land them from unexpected positions, e.g., a flying knee from a kickboxing range!
What I love about Marcos’s kickboxing prowess is that he mixed in defensive wrestling very well. Taking him to the ground isn’t simple, so the opposition often has no choice but to stand and strike where he’s most comfortable.
Fortunately for Yanez, he loves to box and will welcome the stand-up battle. His excellent combinations, high volume with a fast past, and work to the body have been a beauty. Much like Marcos, he’s also adept with takedown defense, but he likely doesn’t need it in this style matchup!
UFC Tampa Main Card Odds & Prediction
While boxing exchanges would likely favor Yanez, this isn’t a pugilist affair. I expect the kicking game and unpredictable nature of Marcos’ selection of offensive strikes to be the difference-maker. Kicks, knees, elbows, and a cleaner, more technical striking offense at range should favor the Peruvian in maintaining his unblemished record.
You can never underestimate the knockout potential in Yanez’s fists, but Marcos’s chin has yet to be tested, and I don’t anticipate that trend altering in Tampa.
The UFC pricing places Marcos as the slight betting favorite, and I agree with the current probability. Yanez has excelled outside of fighting well-versed strikers, and it just happens that his weekend foe is a seasoned kickboxer riding an unruly win streak dating back to 2016.
UFC Pick: Marcos ML (-172) [1.72 returns 1u profit] at Bet365
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