The UFC travels to The Sunshine State this weekend, and we’re covering all your betting needs for a Tampa fight card stacked with top-ranked talent from top to bottom.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into the most noteworthy betting picks for the UFC Tampa preliminary card bouts.
Picks Summary
- Woodson ML (-150)
- Johnson-Azaitar Under 1.5 (+111) 365
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Sean Woodson vs. Fernando Padilla
UFC Tampa Featherweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, December 14, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Amalie Arena
Sean Woodson
Don’t let the lack of stoppage wins (4 in 14 pro fights) have you believe Missouri’s own, Sean Woodson, is less of a talent. Since arriving at the UFC via Dana White’s Contender Series in 2019, this 6’2” featherweight has rarely disappointed in the octagon, as you’re always guaranteed a fun scrap when he steps into the cage.
- Woodson Pro Record: 12-1-1
- Woodson KO/TKO Wins: 3
- Woodson Submission Wins: 1
Fernando Padilla
Padilla is Mexican. Do I need to say more?
This country provides some of the toughest, most durable fighters in the world, and ‘El Valiente’ is no exception. With 21 pro fights in the bag, of course, nobody has knocked him out or submitted, yet his lone UFC wins to date (2) have provided violence that includes a blistering right hook KO over Julian Erosa and a D’arce choke submission over Luis Pajuelo earlier this year.
- Padilla Pro Record: 16-5
- Padilla KO/TKO Wins: 5
- Padilla Submission Wins: 9
Woodson vs. Padilla: Fight Tape Analysis
We’re living in a world where featherweight competitors (145lbs) are over 6-foot tall, and as both Woodson and Padilla check this box, their usual size and reach advantages will be nullified.
In terms of skillset, Padilla is an incredibly fast starter, and we should expect him to follow suit this weekend and attempt to put the pressure on Woodson and finish the fight early. He throws at a high clip on the feet, but along with the volume, he presents a lot of openings, which could be his downfall. He’s also a talented grappler, but given his opponent’s credible takedown defense, I don’t expect him to have many opportunities in this area.
In contrast, Woodson is the type of fighter who actually utilizes his length to the fullest. He’s cool, calm, collected in striking situations, and presents various combinations, including a beautiful jab. He loves to back opponents against the cage, and this is where he’ll unleash a violent onslaught.
Ultimately, it’s an incredibly difficult fight for both men because they aren’t accustomed to facing opponents of a similar size. However, based on Woodson’s cardio, durability, and ability to pace his combinations across three rounds, as opposed to Padilla’s all-out offense, I expect he’ll hold the advantage.
UFC Tampa Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
Woodson is a great point fighter, while Padilla has the potential to fade in the second half of the fight. Woodson has also fought at a higher level of competition, is riding high on confidence after going unbeaten in six straight fights, and, most importantly, is the more well-rounded, technical fighter of the two.
The UFC odds have Woodson as a betting favorite, and rightfully so. There’s no need to overthink this one because the moneyline price is fair, as we can anticipate a fading Padilla who’ll surrender his chance of victory without finding a finish.
UFC Pick: Woodson ML (-150) [1.75u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
Michael Johnson vs. Ottman Azaitar
UFC Tampa Lightweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, December 14, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Amalie Arena
Michael Johnson
To this day, I remain dumbfounded by how Michael Johnson, who once defeated Dustin Poirier, mixed it up with Khabib, Gaethje, Diaz, and Dariush, but as of 2024, he is an unranked fighter. He’s from the generation of those previously mentioned names, and it’s a shame because he has a great skill set. Unfortunately, he could never cross the finish line, and his falloff has been real!
- Johnson Pro Record: 22-19
- Johnson KO/TKO Wins: 9
- Johnson Submission Wins: 2
Ottman Azaitar
Azaitar arrived at the UFC in 2019 with the look, swagger, undefeated record, and a resume filled with knockout wins. The hype was real; at first, he kept it alive with consecutive KO/TKO wins. However, it didn’t take long for the fraud check to appear, and with back-to-back knockout losses and a lack of octagon activity, he’s slowly faded into lightweight obscurity.
- Azaitar Pro Record: 13-2
- Azaitar KO/TKO Wins: 9
- Azaitar Submission Wins: 3
Johnson vs. Azaitar: Fight Tape Analysis
Azaitar’s career is filled with round knockout wins. He’s all about pressure, power, and high volume from the opening bell. Still, the confidence in his striking power has cost him dearly in recent bouts, as it’s become evident that he can’t match the skillset of 155-pounders who aren’t sitting at the bottom of the rankings.
In step Micheal Johnson, who, for his faults, is an incredibly versatile martial artist with a strong wrestling background and the punching power to put anyone’s lights out! Now, aged 38, he’s no spring chicken, but in a skillset comparison, he’s levels above Azaitar.
Of course, Johnson has been more talented than the majority of opponents who have defeated him. The problem is durability versus heavy-hitting foes, and it just so happens that Azaitar’s best asset is power!
Similarly, Azaitar has proven to have a crushable chin as well. So, we have heavy hitters with questionable durability. This sounds like the perfect total bet to me!
UFC Tampa Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing with OddsTrader’s top sportsbooks makes Johnson a betting favorite, and while I agree, backing either fighter on the moneyline feels like dangerous territory.
Instead, we’re looking towards the under. Both men are open to losing this fight in the first round and equally present fight-finishing capabilities. Azaitar’s chances significantly fade after round one, but we can never trust Johnson to string together the perfect game plan without leaving his chin for taking… This one isn’t going the distance!
UFC Pick: Under 1.5 (+111) [1u returns 1.1u profit] at Bet365
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
