The Ultimate Fighting Championship celebrates its 100th Vegas fight night at the Apex this weekend, and we’re gifted with a sleeper lineup of elite-level bouts.
Ricky Turcios, Benardo Sopaj, Luana Pinheiro, and Gillian Robertson are involved in two main card bangers, and I’m seeing some serious betting value up for grabs.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into my favorite UFC Vegas 100 main card analysis and predictions.
Picks Summary
- Turcios/Sopaj Fight Goes the Distance (-150)
- Robertson by Submission (+120)Â
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
UFC Vegas 100 Event Information
- Date & Time: Saturday, November 9, 2024 – 04:00 p.m. ET
- Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada
- Scheduled Fights: 12
- Main Event: Neil Magny vs. Carlos Prates (UFC Welterweight Bout)
Ricky Turcios vs. Bernardo Sopaj
UFC Vegas 100 Bantamweight Co-Main Event Bout
Ricky Turcios
Grapplers have plagued Ricky Turcios during his UFC tenure, and these chain wrestlers are why he often wins by a small margin or losses. A 2-2 record has been a lackluster beginning to his UFC career. That said, losing to Raul Rosas Jr. by submission isn’t a huge red flag for me, but based on the odds of his upcoming bout at Vegas 100, some people don’t have the same opinion
- Turcios Pro MMA Record: 12-4
- Turcios KOs: 3
- Turcios Submissions: 1
Bernardo Sopaj
Sweden’s Bernado Sopaj made his UFC debut earlier this year, and after a competitive three rounds and 19 seconds left on the clock, he suffered a brutal flying knee knockout to receive the worst welcome to the UFC.
Sopaj isn’t a slouch on the feet despite his debut result. In fact, it was his first knockout loss in 14 professional contests. Aged 24, we needn’t question his durability just yet, and as a fighter with time on his side and a commendable grappling game, we can expect an evolved skill set from fight to fight.
- Sopaj Pro MMA Record: 11-3
- Sopaj KOs: 7
- Sopaj Submissions: 3
Turcios vs. Sopaj: Fight Tape Analysis
Turcios doesn’t strike me as a high-level bantamweight, and it isn’t easy to see him finding success anywhere inside the top-20 ranks. He has delivered some high striking volume in the UFC, and although he surrenders some horrible positions on the ground, he is a commendable grappler. The problem is that he doesn’t stand out in any facet of MMA.
Sopaj was heading towards a decision victory in his debut before he was handed a knockout with seconds left on the clock. He displayed a concerning level of cardio in the third, but it was a short-notice appearance.
Regarding skill set, from a wrestling and striking standpoint, I’d go as far as saying Sopaj is the more talented fighter in all areas. Even if you are concerned about his durability, Turcios doesn’t have the physicality or finishing ability we should worry about, and the only concern would be Topaj’s cardio should he decide to wrestle.
UFC Vegas 100 Main Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing with OddsTraders’ top sportsbooks has Sopaj as a -325 betting favorite, a line that feels way off. Although I expect Sopaj to have success early, he’s only 24, and it is unproven that he warrants such a price tag.
I understand the concerns around Turcios’ mediocre skill set, but he’s tough. Going the distance with Aiemann Zahabi has aged well, and consistent get-ups from Brady Hiestand takedowns show he isn’t going to accept positions.
There isn’t much value on the moneyline unless you’re backing Turcios, but as Sopaj’s cardio is the only concern, it’s something he could fix and take this fight on the scorecards. That’s precisely how we’ll bet this one, as I envision this bout going all three rounds with two tough fighters.
Turcios has lost inside the distance just once in six years, with five of his last six bouts going the distance. Sopaj is the side, but it won’t be easy, and the judges will be required to separate the two.
UFC Pick: Fight Goes the Distance (-150) [1.5u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
Luana Pinheiro vs. Gillian Robertson
UFC Vegas 100 Women’s Strawweight Main Card Bout
Luana Pinheiro
Brazil’s Luana Pinheiro debuted for the UFC back in 2021. After three consecutive wins, she made an early stamp on the strawweight division to position herself against high-profile names. Unfortunately for her, success was short-lived, and when the competition levels rose, and her grappling was nullified, she was finished inside the distance by back-to-back fights versus Amanda Ribas and Angela Hill.
- Pinheiro Pro MMA Record: 11-3
- Pinheiro KOs: 2
- Pinheiro Submissions: 5
Gillian Robertson
What does Canada’s Gillian Robertson have in common with Ribas and Hill? She’s a long-standing roster member with veteran qualities and the fight intelligence to understand how to get through an opponent on Pinheiro’s level.
Despite competing in 17 UFC bouts to date, Robertson is only 29. She is continuously evolving her skillset and has won four of her previous five appearances in the octagon, three of which she won inside the distance.
- Robertson Pro MMA Record: 14-8
- Robertson KOs: 2
- Robertson Submissions: 9
Pinheiro vs. Robertson: Fight Tape Analysis
If you didn’t already sense the side I’m on, this should be Robertson’s fight to lose. With Pinheiro, her greatest path to victory has stemmed from a grappling game plan. This was successful in her early tenure, but the likes of Ribas and Hill prevented the takedowns. Hill, who had just one submission win in her 11-year career at the time, managed to stop Pinheiro with a mounted guillotine choke.
Here’s the kicker: Ribas and Hill are known as striking-based martial artists, and the latter is renowned as a point fighter. Robertson, who owns much greater grappling skills than Hill, should have her way with Pinheiro in grounded situations, and it’s difficult to give the Brazilian a chance of winning one round, let alone the entire fight.
Robertson is a relentless grappler and constantly hunts for a finish. Her boxing is merely a tool to hunt for takedowns, and as the much larger fighter with plenty of aggression, supporting the belief that she’ll find a stoppage feels accurate after watching Pinheiro quit versus non-grappling based fighters who managed to out-grapple the grappler!
UFC Vegas 100 Main Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds place Robertson as the betting favorite, and we should pay attention because the oddsmakers have been on the right side throughout Pinheiro’s career. The bookmakers had Pinheiro as the favorite in all three of her UFC wins and as an underdog in her two recent defeats.
It’s safe to believe the oddsmakers are once again on the right side, and while -390 isn’t a price we can capitalize on, Robertson’s ability to find a neck is top-notch. The Canadian has won seven UFC bouts by submission, and I believe she’ll replace that number with an eight this weekend.
UFC Pick: Robertson by Submission (+120) [1 returns 1.2u profit] at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
