The UFC is back at the trusty Apex this weekend, and we’re covering all your betting needs for a milestone fight night card stacked with top-ranked talent from top to bottom.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into the most noteworthy betting picks for the UFC Vegas 100 preliminary card bouts.
Picks Summary
- Radtke ML (-160) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Abdul-Malik by KO/TKO (-165) at Bet365
Charles Radtke vs. Matthew Semelsberger
UFC Vegas 100 Welterweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, November 09, 2024 – 04:00 PM ET at UFC Apex
Charles Radtke
Still young in his UFC career with just three UFC fights in the bag, Charles Radtke returns to the octagon following a savage knockout loss at the hands of the man who’s headlining Saturday’s event, Carlos Prates.
Now, Radtke wasn’t completely out of sorts before the Prates knee to the body, and in fact, he was putting the dangerous Brazilian on his backfoot. This pressure and confidence, hopefully, hasn’t vanished because, as an all-rounder with great finishing potential, it would seem the oddsmakers are somewhat overlooking the Chi-town representative with a respectable -160 price tag.
- Radtke Pro Record: 9-4-0
- Radtke KO/TKO Wins: 4
- Radtke Submission Wins: 2
Matthew Semelsberger
Three consecutive losses, four losses in his previous five UFC appearances, and a brutal spinning-back fist loss to Uros Medic have recently placed Matthew Semelsberger in an untrustworthy category. Winning four of his first five UFC bouts displayed a rugged, heavy-handed striker who could throw down with the best of ’em, but unfortunately, that aura has faded, and he’s one loss away from returning to the regional scene.
- Semelsberger Pro Record: 11-7-0
- Semelsberger KO/TKO Wins: 6
- Semelsberger Submission Wins: 1
Radtke vs. Semelsberger: Fight Tape Analysis
With ten UFC bouts to date, we have a pretty decent sample size to understand what Semelsberger brings to the octagon. He’s a pressure-based fighter with respectable boxing, where he’ll often push the pace and look for a dogfight when trading on the feet.
Radtke is a powerful striker and should undoubtedly be the faster of the two. He’s fought similar levels of pressure on the feet, and regarding grappling, the favorite’s BJJ is levels above that of Semelsberger.
On the feet, I can envision a close fight playing out, but Radtke’s power should earn the respect of Semelsberger, who might become timid as a result. This will open grappling situations, but also, if Semelsberger does push the pressure, this will additionally make clinch and paths to grounded exchanges open up.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Radtke could hand Semelsberger his first submission loss. Still, even if this bout goes the distance, we have to back the workhorse in Radtke, who’ll match Semelsberger’s pressure but with a higher striking output and more damage across three rounds.
UFC Vegas 100 Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
The current UFC odds make Radtke a moderate betting favorite, and rightfully so. However, and fortunately for us bettors, -160 is a great price on the younger, faster, more versatile grappler who also has the ability to cause damage on the feet.
Radtke ML: Supporting UFC Vegas 100 Facts
- Semelsberger has lost 3 consecutive UFC bouts
- Semelsberger is 5-5 under the UFC banner
- Radtke’s dominated 2 of his 3 UFC bouts to date
UFC Pick: Radtke ML (-160) [1.6u returns 1u profit] at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Mansur Abdul-Malik vs. Dusko Todorovic
UFC Vegas 100 Middleweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, November 09, 2024 – 04:00 PM ET at UFC Apex
Mansur Abdul-Malik
Mansur Abdul-Malik recently booked his ticket into the UFC middleweight roster by destroying a talented Wes Schultz on Dana White’s Contender Series, and this second-round stoppage has positioned him as a heavy betting favorite ahead of his promotional debut.
With a strong wrestling background and some nasty intentions, Abdul-Malik has remained undefeated as a professional. All of his opponents to date have been the victims of a knockout, except one foe in 2023 who was guillotine-choked into submission.
- Abdul-Malik Pro Record: 6-0-0
- Abdul-Malik KO/TKO Wins: 5
- Abdul-Malki Submission Wins: 1
Dusko Todorovic
Dusko Todorovic was once in the same position as his weekend opp. In 2019, the Serbian kickboxer had a small hype behind his name, and he instantly impressed onlookers with a KO/TKO victory in his debut. Unfortunately, since that date, he won just two of his next six fights, and his lone in-cage victories have come against fighters who’ve since been cut from the UFC roster.
- Todorovic Pro Record: 12-4-0
- Todorovic KO/TKO Wins: 8
- Todorovic Submission Wins: 3
Abdul-Malik vs. Todorovic: Fight Tape Analysis
Division 1 wrestler, Todorovic is a knockout-or-get-knocked-out kind of fighter. As a result, he’s untrustworthy as a potential wager because he will either win by knockout or get knocked out when he enters the octagon. While his striking offensive holds that finishing potential, he hasn’t been a smart striker defensively, and with mediocre wrestling defense, he’s live to get out grappled and ground and pounded.
Coincidentally, Abdul-Malik, one of the latest midweight roster additions, is a former Division 1 wrestler with vicious ground-and-pound skills. His two most recent bouts displayed his wrestling superiority, and they both resulted in KO/TKO wins from a grounded position. This doesn’t bode well for Todorovic, whose biggest weaknesses are his durability and ground skills.
Todorovic, without the assistance of his left and right hand, is pretty much screwed in this contest. His lone UFC wins to date came against fighters who’re now cut from the promotion, and now he’s faced with a wrestling-heavy prospect who’s undefeated and has won every pro bout inside the distance.
UFC Vegas 100 Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
The pricing with OddsTrader’s top sportsbooks places the UFC debutant, Abdul-Malik, as a heavy betting favorite. This isn’t always the best wagering position to be in, but the elite tools of the favorite are difficult to overlook in this particular matchup.
A young prospect goes against a battle-tested Todorovic that’s already been exposed. I anticipate a breakout performance for the American, who can take this fight to the ground at will and pound the suspect chin of his opponent until he’s unconscious or the referee is forced to step in.
Abdul-Malik by KO/TKO: Supporting UFC Vegas 100 Facts
- Abdul-Malik is undefeated as a professional (6-0)
- Abdul-Malis has won all six of his pro bouts inside the distance
- 75% of Todorovic’s losses (3) were by KO/TKO
UFC Pick: Abdul-Malik by KO/TKO (-165) [1.6u returns 1u profit] at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
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