The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to the octagon with an absolute banger of a fight card to kickstart the 2025 calendar!
Mackenzie Dern, Amanda Ribas, Chris Curtis, and Roman Kopylov are involved in two main card bangers, and I’m seeing some serious betting value up for grabs.
Let’s waste no more time and dive into my UFC Vegas 101 main card analysis and predictions, including two best bets!
Picks Summary
- Curtis/Kopylov – Fight Goes the Distance/Yes (-180)
- Dern/Ribas – Fight Goes the Distance/Yes (-190)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
UFC Vegas 101 Event Information
- Date & Time: Saturday, January 11, 2025 – 06:00 PM ET
- Location: UFC Apex
- Scheduled Fights: 14
- Main Event: Mackenzie Dern vs. Amanda Ribas (UFC Women’s Strawweight Title Bout)
Chris Curtis vs. Roman Kopylov
UFC Vegas 101 Middleweight Main Card Bout
Chris Curtis
Four years under the UFC banner, and Chris Curtis has wasted no time. He has arrived at the octagon on nine occasions and, in turn, evolved his presence at 185 lbs to become a household name.
That said, he is 37 years old, and the style of fighting he brings to the cage doesn’t scream longevity. When considering his complete MMA career involves 42 contests, does he have that much left to give in the sport?
- Curtis Pro MMA Record: 31-11
- Curtis KOs: 15
- Curtis Submissions: 3
Roman Kopylov
In contrasting fashion, Roman Kopylov is 32 years old and has competed in just sixteen pro-MMA bouts. While he will suffer in the experience department this weekend, his UFC scraps to date have presented a well-seasoned striker with devastating offense and a smidgen of wrestling in his back pocket if need be.
- Kopylov Pro MMA Record: 13-3
- Kopylov KOs: 11
- Kopylov Submissions: 0
Curtis vs. Kopylov: Fight Tape Analysis
If there’s one glaring factor about this fight that stands tall above all else, it would be the durability of both men. Kopylov, despite losing twice in the UFC and three contests overall, has never been stopped with strikes, and as Curtis has done nothing but kickbox throughout his career, that’s a good sign of Kopylov’s durability trend continuing.
Likewise, Curtis’ chin has been quite the talking point. Arguably, he possesses more durability than Kopylov when you consider he’s suffered just one knockout defeat in 40 pro-MMA appearances.
This stylistic matchup should provide a striking affair, for the most part. I wouldn’t be surprised if Kopylov attempted a takedown, but this won’t be viable over 15 minutes due to his questionable gas tank and Curtis’s solid takedown defense.
UFC Vegas 101 Main Card Odds & Prediction
We have two strikers stepping into the cage who have excellent chins and equally excellent cage movement capable of mitigating damage to avoid stoppages. Kopylov, with his speedy footwork and outside striking, might struggle to match Curtis with his inside boxing, but I wouldn’t expect a knockout to surface as these two engage in a striking chess match.
The current betting odds on this fight going the distance reflect the respected durability of Curtis and Kopylov, but at -180, it’s not too juiced and still playable as a single wager.
UFC Pick: Curtis/Kopylov – Fight Goes the Distance/Yes (-180) [1.8u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
Mackenzie Dern vs. Amanda Ribas
UFC Vegas 101 Women’s Strawweight Main Event Bout
Mackenzie Dern
Mackenzie Dern is an elite-level Brazilian jiu-jitsu practitioner and the only woman to win championships at every belt stage of her BJJ journey. Currently, as a 3rd-degree black belt, it’s no secret where her threats lie. Although her transition to pro-MMA hasn’t been perfect thus far, she’s a No.6-ranked strawweight with nine wins in the octagon, including some household names such as Angela Hill, Tecia Pennington and Virna Jandiroba.
- Dern Pro MMA Record: 14-5
- Dern KOs: 0
- Dern Submissions: 7
Amanda Ribas
Amanda Ribas is a happy-go-lucky personality often captured during UFC media days, giggling or with a huge smile. This happiness translates to MMA fans, as the masses adore her. However, don’t let that fool you, as once that octagon door closes, she’s a vicious competitor who holds a 7-4 UFC record after competing for the promotion over the last five years.
What’s interesting about Ribas’ main event position this weekend is that she’s already tangled up with Dern from back in 2019. She’ll be looking to replicate that unanimous decision success come Saturday, but can she avoid the grappling ace’s dangerous BJJ for a second time straight, four years later?
- Ribas Pro MMA Record: 13-5
- Ribas KOs: 4
- Ribas Submissions: 4
Dern vs. Ribas: Fight Tape Analysis
It’s not the main event most fans expected to kick off 2025’s octagon festivities, but don’t sleep on this fight because both ladies have a violent streak worthy of our attention.
As you’ve probably guessed already, Dern will look for engagement in the grappling realm where she can truly dominate. However, while Ribas isn’t at the same level, she is Brazilian, and she does have a black belt of her own, so Dern’s manipulation of where this fight takes place won’t be a simple feat.
Ribas is a well-rounded martial artist who isn’t afraid to mix it up. If she’s to emulate the game plan of the first fight, however, it might be a bad choice, as Dern’s lackluster striking of 2019 has certainly improved since.
The key difference between 2019 and now is that this fight will be five rounds instead of three. Both ladies are durable as hell, and regarding cardio, we’ve rarely witnessed them struggling.
UFC Vegas 101 Main Card Odds & Prediction
The pricing with some top-rated sportsbooks makes Ribas the betting favorite. Still, for moneyline bettors, it’s worth treating this fight as a dog or pass situation, considering both can walk out victorious.
Elsewhere on the betting market, where I believe the money will be made, we’re seeing -190 for this fight to go the distance. Given the fact that Ribas has never been submitted, and Dern’s only loss inside the distance was against the hardest hitter in women’s MMA, Jessica Andrade, it wouldn’t be surprising to see this fight go the judge’s scorecards, just like it did four years ago.
As mentioned, durability and cardio are two strong suits for Dern and Ribas, so I’m more than comfortable laying the -190 on this fight to force the judges into play.
UFC Pick: Dern/Ribas – Fight Goes the Distance/Yes (-190) [1.9 returns 1u profit] at Bet365
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
