Following a four-week hiatus, the UFC returns to Vegas this weekend, and we’re covering all your betting needs for a Sin City fight night stacked with top-tier MMA talent from top to bottom.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into the most noteworthy betting picks for the UFC Vegas 101 preliminary card bouts.
Picks Summary
- Gadzhiyasulov by KO/TKO or Decision (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
- Trey Ogden Moneyline (+155) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Magomed Gadzhiyasulov vs. Bruno Lopes
UFC Vegas 101 Light Heavyweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, January 11, 2025 – 04:00 PM ET at UFC Apex
Magomed Gadzhiyasulov
From Dana White’s Contender Series to his UFC debut last summer, another Dagestani savage in Magomed Gadzhiyasulov has entered the game, and his 9-0 unbeaten record remains intact. He returns to the octagon for his second UFC appearance this weekend, looking to keep his reputation and that of the KHK MMA Team at the top.
- Gadzhiyasulov Pro Record: 9-0
- Gadzhiyasulov KO/TKO Wins: 4
- Gadzhiyasulov Submission Wins: 1
Bruno Lopes
Similarly, Brazil’s Bruno Lopes took the route of DWCS to earn his UFC contract. That said, it did take two attempts after his undefeated was crushed by Brendson Ribeiro the first time out. On the bright side, however, Lopes is 13-1 with 11 stoppage wins, and if any UFC newcomer is going to leave it all in the octagon this Saturday, he’s the guy!
- Lopes Pro Record: 13-1
- Lopes KO/TKO Wins: 6
- Lopes Submission Wins: 5
Gadzhiyasulov vs. Lopes: Fight Tape Analysis
The light heavyweight division desperately needs some fresh contenders, and although Lopes looks impressive on paper, I don’t believe he holds the true athleticism to reach the heights of 205lbs. Gadzhiyasulov, on the other hand, trains alongside a slew of champions, including the UFC lightweight king Islam Makhachev. With that pressured-based style and seemingly unbreakable Dagestan wrestling, Gadz certainly has the supporting mindset and tools to crack this relatively weak division’s top 15 rankings.
Don’t get me wrong; I haven’t seen championship-quality performances from Gadzhiyasulov yet. He has a lot to prove, but from the fight tape thus far, he’s presented some much-needed striking fundamentals, sound defense, excellent cardio, an elite top game from grounded positions and the ability to finish fights.
For Lopes, while he’s unquestionably a dangerous finisher, he seems too lethargic in his striking approach. Although the power is present, he can be reckless in exchanges, which is a huge red flag when you’re opposite an opponent who’ll have no issues dragging you to the mat or firing back counter-strikes with mean intent.
UFC Vegas 101 Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
Death, taxes and undefeated Dagestani fighters reign supreme on the MMA betting lines.
Look, I know it’s become a cliché, but if it works, why fix it? And we have to go back to the well with this one because Gadzhiyasulov, much like many of his fellow Russians, only needs one takedown, and that heavy top control will steal the remainder of the round.
The UFC odds make Gadzhiyasulov a significant betting favorite, but as we shouldn’t expect him to attempt too many submissions, and considering the fact Lopes has never been tapped, backing the KO/Decision prop will boost our odds to a respectable -110.
UFC Pick: Gadzhiyasulov by KO/TKO or Decision (-110) [1.10u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
Gadzhiyasulov by KO/TKO or Decision: Supporting UFC Vegas 101 Facts
- Lopes’ only career loss was by KO/TKO.
- Lopes has gone the distance in just 2 of his 14 pro-MMA bouts.
- Gadzhiyasulov has won by KO or decision in 90% of his fights.
- Gadzhiyasulov is undefeated as a professional.
Thiago Moises vs. Trey Ogden
UFC Vegas 101 Lightweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, January 11, 2025 – 04:00 PM ET at UFC Apex
Thiago Moises
Thiago Moises has spent most of his pro-MMA career under the UFC banner. Aged just 29, he now holds six years of UFC experience, and although the 7-6 record doesn’t pose a threat on paper, we must consider the elite level of competition he’s faced.
With five of Moises’ six losses coming against top-ranked lightweights, including the current champ Islam Makhachev, he shouldn’t be underestimated based on losing streaks. And with the experience he’s collected to date, this Brazilian is always about to cause an upset.
- Moises Pro Record: 18-8
- Moises KO/TKO Wins: 4
- Moises Submission Wins: 8
Trey Ogden
Trey Ogden doesn’t possess the experience against elite opponents like Moises. Still, after struggling to find his way behind a 1-2 record in his first year of UFC competition, he’s now unbeaten in three straight bouts. He is undeniably an underdog capable of denying the betting odds this weekend.
- Ogden Pro Record: 18-6
- Ogden KO/TKO Wins: 0
- Ogden Submission Wins: 11
Moises vs. Ogden: Fight Tape Analysis
The problem with Moises is that he doesn’t stand out in any one area. Sure, he’s serviceable in all areas, but knowing where he can dominate becomes a challenge when predicting his paths to victory.
A beautiful jab and credible offensive wrestling are all Ogden will need. Now, in a straight-up kickboxing contest, he will hold the advantages behind a crisp jab and higher output, and should he wrestle, I don’t envision Moises out-powering him or even utilizing his BJJ from his back.
When we discuss grinders, Ogden is the guy who’ll fight for our money until the death. He isn’t the most athletic or a serious finishing threat, but as a foundational worker, he does all the right stuff and puts together game plans capable of topping Moises’s mediocre skills.
UFC Vegas 101 Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
Moises’s path to victory would likely be the takedown-submission route. Good luck achieving that because Ogden won’t be taken down and owns a BJJ black belt. This will leave it to striking exchanges, which Ogden will win, as well as consistent openings for the wrestling takedowns, yet another area where Ogden is the A-side.
The pricing with some top-rated sportsbooks places Moises as a betting favorite, and I have no idea why. Perhaps the level of competition he’s faced is swaying the line, but let’s be serious. He hasn’t won any of those high-profile contests, and he lacks the fundamentals required across all areas of MMA.
UFC Pick: Trey Ogden ML +155 [1u returns 1.55u profit] at Caesars Sportsbook
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
