The UFC returns home to the Apex this weekend, and we’re covering all your betting needs for a Sin City fight card stacked with top-ranked talent from top to bottom.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into the most noteworthy betting picks for the UFC Vegas 102 preliminary card bouts.
Picks Summary
- Elijah Smith ML (-188) at Bet365
- Gabriel Bonfim Wins Inside the Distance (+130) at Caesars Sportsbook
Vince Morales vs. Elijah Smith
UFC Vegas 102 Bantamweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, February 15, 2025 – 04:00 PM ET at the UFC Apex
Vince Morales
It’s been quite the journey for Vince Morales. Since faltering in the octagon with a 3-5 record between 2018 and 2022, he was dropped and returned to the MMA regional scene. After proving he’s a level above regional scene opponents behind a 5-fight win streak, he returned to the UFC last year and, unfortunately, suffered another defeat.
Currently, Morales holds a 3-6 record in the UFC and is aged 34; with a relatively inexperienced opponent lined up for this weekend, it could very well be his final opportunity before never receiving the chance to become a bantamweight mainstay for the promotion.
- Morales Pro Record: 16-8
- Morales KO/TKO Wins: 7
- Morales Submission Wins: 5
Elijah Smith
In contrast to Morales, Elijah Smith is just 22 years old, has fought in just 8 pro-MMA bouts, and when it comes to experience, he’s the clear B-side this weekend in Vegas. However, as far as prospects with hands go, he’s shown a lot of promise, and should he keep Saturday’s fight standing, it could be a breakout performance for the debutant.
- Smith Pro Record: 7-1
- Smith KO/TKO Wins: 4
- Smith Submission Wins: 1
Morales vs. Smith: Fight Tape Analysis
Here’s the thing: in a standup war, Morales will get pieced up by the young, fast, athletic, and notably skilled striker that Smith has proven to be. So, I expect him to chase takedowns and look to snatch a neck, where he’ll hold an advantage by relying on skills that have previously brought him success. Unfortunately for him, besides sneaky submissions like D’arce chokes and Peruvian neckties, Morales’s ground game isn’t that great.
How many times have we seen Morales land a takedown or take an advantageous position on the ground, to then watch him look clueless? I’ve lost count, to be honest. Whether it’s full mount, half guard, side control, or full mount, his ability to keep fighters grounded is poor, and while his grappling offense regarding submissions is dangerous, his wrestling is poor and untrustworthy.
Now, Smith, obviously is far from the finished product, but when it comes to athleticism, speed, power, and striking output, it’s his fight to lose. He’s no technical mastermind on the feet, but compared to Morales he’ll be quicker to the punch, and he does a great job of stringing together basic combinations while also making the opposition pay if they seem in danger.
UFC Vegas 102 Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
If there’s one aspect of betting MMA that I’ve learned from certain losses, it’s that you should always be cautious of fighters with a lack of experience. However, I struggle not to make the exception for Smith because styles make fights, and outside of catching a sneaky neck submission, I cannot envision the veteran fighter having much success.
The UFC pricing with OddsTrader’s top sportsbooks has the significantly younger and less experienced fighter as the favorite for a reason. Minus the aforementioned submission, Morales won’t bring much to the table that could harm Smith.
I’m banking on Smith’s speed and striking ability to top that of Morales in this spot, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the debutant could even find a finish before all is said and done.
Smith ML: Supporting UFC Vegas 102 Facts
- Morales is 3-6 as a UFC fighter
- Morales has previously been cut from the UFC
- Smith has won five consecutive fights ahead of his UFC debut
UFC Pick: Smith ML (-188) [1.88u returns 1u profit] at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Gabriel Bonfim vs. Khaos Williams
UFC Vegas 102 Welterweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, February 15, 2025 – 04:00 PM ET at the UFC Apex
Gabriel Bonfim
Brazilian standout Gabriel Bonfim, alongside his brother Ismael, has made quite an impact since arriving in the UFC. Sure, a 4-1 UFC record for Bonfim isn’t perfect, but his elite grappling is undeniable. Moreover, he’s a finishing machine, with 12 pro career wins by decision, 3 by knockout, and just one win that’s gone the distance.
- Bonfim Pro Record: 16-1
- Bonfim KO/TKO Wins: 3
- Bonfim Submission Wins: 12
Khaos Williams
Khaos Williams made a huge impact during his 2020 UFC debut with a knockout over Alex Morano, and he’s been punching his ticket to higher-level opposition ever since, with 4 of his 6 UFC wins coming by KO/TKO.
Khoas is the perfect name because that’s precisely what he brings to the octagon when his hands let loose. However, without credible experience versus high-level grapplers, Saturday’s bout will test him like he’s never been tested before.
- Williams Pro Record: 15-3
- Williams KO/TKO Wins: 7
- Williams Submission Wins: 2
Bonfim vs. Williams: Fight Tape Analysis
You have an absolute wrecking ball in the boxing department with Khoas Williams and BJJ purest that’s finished all but one of his pro career fights in Gabriel Bonfim. That under/over, unfortunately, is set at 1 ½ rounds, and for that reason, I’m staying away.
However, what concerns me most is Williams’ lack of experience versus elite grapplers. I have no doubt that he’s the more threatening fighter regarding kickboxing exchanges, but we cannot trust that he’ll have enough to match the grappling prowess of Bonfim.
In addition, as the takedown threat might cause Williams’ to be hesitant on the feet with his hands low, this also opens up opportunities for Bonfim in striking exchanges. And although the Brazilian is most known for his submission expertise, he’s no slouch with his hands, and could undoubtedly cause Khoas, some chaos, whether the fights standing or grounded.
UFC Vegas 102 Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds listed Bonfim as the betting favorite, but I’m not interested in the juice. Instead, and as a trustworthy fighter when it comes to finishing fights, backing him to win inside the distance feels like a respectable piece of plus-money value.
I understand that Williams’ has never been submitted or knocked out during his career, but he’s never fought a grappler on the level of Bonfim. With takedown worries and a submission expert who also has power, I believe the KO/TKO or submission finish for Bonfim are viable outcomes here.
Bonfim ITD: Supporting UFC Vegas 102 Facts
- Bonfim has won 15 of 16 pro-MMA wins inside the distance
- Bonfim has lost just 1 of his 17 pro-MMA bouts
- Williams owns a 6-2 UFC record but has never fought a high level grappler
UFC Pick: Bonfim Wins Inside the Distance (+130) [1u returns 1.30u profit] at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
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