The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to the octagon this weekend with an absolute banger of a fight card!
Cody Brundage, Julian Marquez, Danny Barlow, and Sam Patterson are involved in two main card bangers, and I’m seeing some serious betting value up for grabs with the UFC odds.
Let’s waste no more time and dive into my favorite UFC Vegas 103 main card analysis and predictions.
Picks Summary
- Brundage/Marquez Under 1.5 Rounds (-150)
- Barlow/Patterson Under 1.5 Rounds (-120)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
UFC Vegas 103 Event Information
- Date & Time: Saturday, March 1, 2025 – 04:00 PM ET
- Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas
- Scheduled Fights: 12
- Main Event: Manel Kape vs. Asu Almabayev (UFC Flyweight Bout)
Cody Brundage vs. Julian Marquez
UFC Middleweight Main Card Bout
Cody Brundage
A 4-5 UFC record, with 60% of those five losses coming by KO/TKO or submission, doesn’t exactly place Cody Brundage as a viable middleweight contender. Still, he’s somehow reached the co-main event position for this weekend’s card. He’s defensively questionable and not a fighter you’d want to wager on, but at the very least, you know we’ll get a dogfight from him, win or lose.
- Brundage Pro MMA Record: 10-6
- Brundage KOs: 5
- Brundage Submissions: 3
Julian Marquez
This is where we insert the Spiderman meme because Brundage’s weekend foe, Julian Marquez, has had an equally disappointing run in the UFC (3-4), if not worse than because he’s now lost three consecutive fights in the octagon.
I’m still attempting to understand why the UFC matchmakers have this bout as a co-main event, but the card placement doesn’t hinder our betting opportunities. With a die-on-his-shield attitude, Marquez is ripe for the totals market.
- Marquez Pro MMA Record: 9-5
- Marquez KOs: 5
- Marquez Submissions: 4
Brundage vs. Marquez: Fight Tape Analysis
We have two mixed martial artists that aren’t great in any one area of the fight game. Fortunately for our betting minds, we have two fighters that have the durability of a wet paper bag and finishing ability. Marquez enjoys a choke stoppage from time to time, and when he’s not doing that, he finds himself getting knocked out early.
For Brundage, heavy hands and a mean have seen him take stoppage victories in 90% of his UFC wins to date, and when he isn’t up to the task, you’ll also see him get knocked out or submitted for his pitfalls.
UFC Vegas 103 Main Card Odds & Prediction
In this contest, I only see two low-level middleweights who can barely survive when the chips are stacked against them. Marquez has won or lost in the first round in five of his seven UFC appearances, while Brundage has also won or lost in rounds one or two in eight of his previous 10.
A reckless fighting style doesn’t allow Brundage or Marquez to fight smartly, as it seems they aren’t here to play for points. With that said, the under 1.5 rounds makes complete sense.
The UFC pricing with OddsTraders’ top sportsbooks is almost split on the moneyline because neither fighter is trustworthy. Play it safe instead; take the under for a respectable -150. Â
UFC Pick: Under 1.5 Rounds (-150) [1.5u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
Danny Barlow vs. Sam Patterson
UFC Welterweight Main Card Bout
Danny Barlow
Following back-to-back knockouts on Dana White’s Contender Series and in his UFC debut, respectively, the hype around Danny Barlow started to rise. Then, in his most recent bout with Nikolay Veretennikov, he was humanized in squeaking a split decision. Despite this, he enters Saturday as a significant betting favorite versus a fellow newcomer, but can the heavy-hitting welterweight rebuild his stock and prove his worth? Â
- Barlow Pro MMA Record: 9-0
- Barlow KOs: 5
- Barlow Submissions: 1
Sam Patterson
With his long and lanky frame, Sam Patterson is a large welterweight who thrives in grappling situations. He was absolutely wrecked in his UFC debut. Still, since then, we’ve watched him collect consecutive submission wins in the first round, as he’ll undeniably be looking to implement his BJJ black belt again this weekend.
- Patterson Pro MMA Record: 12-2-1
- Patterson KOs: 4
- Patterson Submissions: 7
Barlow vs. Patterson: Fight Tape Analysis
While Patterson’s BJJ is likely the most elite skillset in this bout, his lone career defeats (2) were by KO/TKO, and that’s a huge concern when the power of Barlow is your next task.
It’s obvious that Patterson needs grappling, control time, and most likely a submission to win this fight. Is this possible? I believe so, especially after Barlow seemed to slow down in his last bout and was controlled by Veretennikov last time out. However, Barlow alleged to have injured his arm in that bout, and that’s also a factor we must consider.
Patterson often has a size advantage over his opponents, but that won’t be the case. We’re going to see two large welterweights, one hunting the KO/TKO and the other seeking ground control to land a submission, and to be honest, one of those two outcomes is highly probable.
UFC Vegas 103 Main Card Odds & Prediction
I don’t mind an underdog play in this spot because Barlow’s grappling defense is unknown, and Patterson is an ace on the mat. That said, the under 1.5 rounds feels like the safe play, as Barlow is live for an early knockout versus the untrustworthy chin of his opponent.
UFC Pick: Under 1.5 Rounds (-120) [1.2 returns 1u profit] at Bet365
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
