The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to Sin City this weekend with a stacked fight card brimming with fresh-faced contenders and experienced vets!
Da’Mon Blackshear, Cody Gibson, Kevin Vallejos and Seungwoo Choi are involved in two main card bouts, and I’ve spotted some intriguing betting value we can take advantage of at the top-rated sportsbooks.
The odds are live, the analysis is complete, so let’s dive right into my favorite UFC Vegas 104 main card picks and predictions.
Picks Summary
- Da’Mon Blackshear ML & Over 1.5 Rounds (-185)
- Kevin Vallejos ML & Under 2.5 Rounds (-152)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
UFC Vegas 104 Event Information
- Date & Time: Saturday, March 15, 2025 – 04:00 PM ET
- Location: UFC Apex
- Scheduled Fights: 13
- Main Event: Marvin Vettori vs. Roman Dolidze 2 (UFC Middleweight Bout)
Da’Mon Blackshear vs. Cody Gibson
UFC Bantamweight Main Card Bout
Da’Mon Blackshear
With a 3-3-1 UFC record, Da’Mon Blackshear might be one of the most talented bantamweight competitors whose record doesn’t represent this stance very well.
When a handful of your UFC defeats came against the likes of Mario Bautista and Farid Basharat, there’s no shame in a mediocre record on paper, and it makes him all the more playable when faced with a lower level of competition.
- Blackshear Pro MMA Record: 15-7-1
- Blackshear KOs: 2
- Blackshear Submissions: 10
Cody Gibson
Cody Gibson is a 37-year-old journeyman who initially fought for the UFC and was cut before fighting his way back onto the roster via the Ultimate Fighter.
To be brutally honest, he has no significant victories on his record, and despite entering Vegas this weekend on a two-fight win streak, Brian Kelleher and Chad Anheliger weren’t in exactly top-tier competition.
- Gibson Pro MMA Record: 21-10
- Gibson KOs: 7
- Gibson Submissions: 5
Blackshear vs. Gibson: Fight Tape Analysis
Gibson’s skill set is pretty well-rounded, but at a UFC level, he’s just a basic fighter with no superior tools, which makes him a minimal threat. Sure, he can compete with un-ranked opponents, but Blackshear isn’t that guy.
Entering his prime fighting years at age 30, Blackshear is an uber-talented bantamweight who’s more athletic, faster and just a level above Gibson in all areas of the fight game. Whether he’s popping a jab at distance, controlling the pace standing, or tangling up on the ground as the superior BJJ artist, I don’t envision a world where he loses to an opponent of Gibson’s level.
UFC Vegas 104 Main Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing with the top-rated sportsbooks places Blackshear as a heavy betting favorite, and rightfully so. I will give Gibson his props, he’s a durable dude and has never been stopped in the first round.
With the juice on Blackshear’s moneyline, we can add the over 1.5 rounds in support of Gibson’s durability to boost our price. I still believe the favorite can find a finish, but I see this happening late in the fight, most likely by submission late in the second or third round.
UFC Pick: Da’Mon Blackshear ML & Over 1.5 Rounds (-185) [1.85u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
Kevin Vallejos vs. Seungwoo Choi
UFC Featherweight Main Card Bout
Kevin Vallejos
Argentina, stand up, because you have a serious talent representing your nation with Kevin Vallejos finally making his UFC debut this weekend. Despite being just 23 years old, this striking ace has provided a beautiful highlight reel en route to joining the big leagues.
Vallejos impressively went the distance with the finishing machine Jean Silva on DWCS, and he was just 21 at the time! This is his only career loss to date, and with a second opportunity on DWCS last year, he blasted an unbeaten Cam Teague to secure his spot on the featherweight roster.
- Vallejos Pro MMA Record: 14-1
- Vallejos KOs: 10
- Vallejos Submissions: 2
Seungwoo Choi
Aged 32, behind ten UFC bouts, Seungwoo Choi returns against a debutant this weekend, unquestionably holding an experience advantage. However, this is where it starts and stops with his advantages in this bout, and as a fellow striker, I struggle to create a viable path to victory for the Korean fighter returning from a knockout loss.
- Choi Pro MMA Record: 11-7
- Choi KOs: 6
- Choi Submissions: 0
Vallejos vs. Choi: Fight Tape Analysis
Despite the experience, this bout is a complete mismatch, in my opinion. Vallejos is a special talent, and if he’s this good at 23, he could have an extremely bright future. This matchmaking will produce a striking battle, and with speed, power and technical advantages all siding with the Argentinian, it’s going to be an ugly night for Choi.
Vallejos has the one-punch power that can cause issues for his opponents in the opening round. Choi is no dummy in the striking area, but he’s rarely the aggressor, and this won’t fare well because he doesn’t have the talent to produce problems for the newcomer from the outside striking range.
Choi just got flatlined by Steve Garcia, and when a brawl erupted, he was willing to trade, and we know how that turned out. Now, opposite a heavy-handed, youthful talent like Vallejos, I don’t see any other result than a knockout for the debutant.
UFC Vegas 104 Main Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds place Vallejos as the betting favorite. Still, as previously mentioned, this fight isn’t going to judges because Choi won’t handle the power of the favorite for three rounds.
Pair Vallejos’ moneyline with the under 2.5 rounds for a significantly greater price, as he’ll quickly prove he’s levels above a lacklustre journeyman such as Choi.
UFC Pick: Kevin Vallejos ML & Under 2.5 Rounds & Under 2.5 Rounds (-152) [1.52 returns 1u profit] at Bet365
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
