The UFC returns to Vegas this weekend, as we’re back in the small cage at the UFC Apex, and we’re covering all your betting needs for a Sin City fight card stacked with up-and-coming talent from top to bottom.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into the most noteworthy betting picks for the UFC Vegas 104 preliminary card bouts.
Picks Summary
- Diyar Nurgozhay ML & Under 2.5 Rounds (-110)
- Josiane Nunes ML (-175)Â
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Diyar Nurgozhay vs. Brendson Ribeiro
UFC Vegas 104 Light Heavyweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, March 15, 2025 – 09:05 PM ET at UFC Apex
Diyar Nurgozhay
We have another undefeated prospect making his UFC debut as a heavy favorite. But don’t worry, Kazakhstan native Diyar Nurgozhay has looked incredibly impressive during his short, 10-fight, pro-MMA career.
Unlike most youthful prospects on the rise, Nurgozhay presents a calm nature in the octagon where his fight intelligence seems higher than most. The 205lb division desperately needs new talent, and with a complete skill set and finishing ability, I like his chances of making an impact at this weight class.
- Nurgozhay Pro Record: 10-0-0
- Nurgozhay KO/TKO Wins: 6
- Nurgozhay Submission Wins: 2
Brendson Ribeiro
Brendson Ribeiro was once a highly touted prospect himself. Unfortunately, after impressing us with a round knockout on Dana White’s Contender Series, he received a reality check in the UFC when Mingyang Zhang flatlined him.
To date, he’s 1-2 in the UFC, and although his knockout ability was respected on the regional scene, his durability and skill have always been limited.
- Ribeiro Pro Record: 16-7
- Ribeiro KO/TKO Wins: 9
- Ribeiro Submission Wins: 6
Nurgozhay vs. Ribeiro: Fight Tape Analysis
Two of Ribeiro’s UFC opponents, including one of his losses, were against fighters who’ve since been cut from the promotion. It almost seems like he’s the perfect level opponent for a debutant like Nurgozhay, and if you know anything about this Kazakh brute, you’ll be excited for his first walk to the octagon on Saturday.
Sure, Ribeiro has some fire in those hands, but he isn’t technical, and his ground game doesn’t have the potential to cause complications. I envision the Brazilian bringing the pressure but not technically having the skills to outclass Nurgozhay. When his cardio starts to drain, the favorite will prove his worth as a UFC roster member and break Ribeiro’s already questionable durability.
In all honesty, wherever this fight goes, standing or grounded, Nurgozhay will be the stronger, more skilled fighter. He’ll also have a cardio advantage, and when Ribeiro realizes his pressure game isn’t going to work, he’ll wilt to the technical prowess of this light heavyweight newcomer.
UFC Vegas 104 Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing with the top-rated sportsbooks makes Nurgozhay a -300 betting favorite on the money. Usually, this would be a concern for a competitor with zero UFC experience, but styles make fights, and it’s not like Ribeiro has impressed at a UFC level thus far.
With fifteen minutes to play with, I expect Nurgozhay to outclass Ribeiro in striking exchanges completely. When the second or third round arrives, the Kazakhstani newcomer will again expose the Brazilian’s durability, or lack thereof, giving us a great chance to boost his price by attaching the under 2.5 rounds with the moneyline.
UFC Pick: Diyar Nurgozhay ML & Under 2.5 Rounds (-110) [1.1u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
Nurgozhay ML & Under 2.5 Rounds: Supporting UFC Vegas 104 Facts
- Nurgozhay is undefeated (10-0) with an 80% finish rate.
- Five of Ribeiro’s 7 pro-MMA losses came by KO/TKO or submission.
- Ribeiro lost four times by KO/TKO or submission on the pro-MMA regional scene.
- Under 2.5 Rounds has landed in 9 of Ribeiro’s 11 most recent fights.
- Nurgozhay has finished 8 of his 10 pro-MMA bouts under 2.5 Rounds.
Josiane Nunes vs. Priscila Cachoeira
UFC Vegas 104 Women’s Bantamweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, March 15, 2025 – 09:05 PM ET at UFC Apex
Josiane Nunes
Brazil’s Josiane Nunes kickstarted her UFC tenure emphatically with a first-round overhand left knockout that left Bea Malecki unresponsive, thus proving that her muay thai base and heavy hands weren’t to be frowned upon. While she followed that up with back-to-back wins, 2024 saw a downtrend for the Curitiba native.
To give credit where credit’s due, Nunes lost as a +225 underdog last time out against Jacqueline Cavalcanti. However, a split-decision result underestimated her chance of winning a fight that could’ve gone either way. So, with a drop in competition against an aging fighter, bouncing back into the win column might be on the cards.
- Nunes Pro Record: 10-3
- Nunes KO/TKO Wins: 7
- Nunes Submission Wins: 0′
Priscila Cachoeira
Fellow Brazil native Priscila Cachoeira might enter Saturday’s fight with more experience. Still, cage activity and a two-fight losing streak that includes back-to-back submission losses don’t place much future behind this 36-year-old fighter.
Of course, Priscila is also taking a drop in competition. Still, with a concerning ground game and an opponent who can cause significant damage to the feet, her rising age in the sport certainly doesn’t assist her argument in finding much success as she moves up a weight class.
- Cachoeira Pro Record: 12-6
- Cachoeira KO/TKO Wins: 7
- Cachoeira Submission Wins: 0
Nunes vs. Cachoeira: Fight Tape Analysis
I’m not entirely sold on Nunes but Cachoeira’s age, and the fact that she’s moving up a weight class does concern me. Moreover, as a striker, she’s wild and reckless, and while this has worked in the past, I don’t believe she’s as technical or precise in striking exchanges as Nunes.
Nunes has an excellent chin, so, the worry of Cachoeira catching her shouldn’t be an issue. Watching Nunes trade with Cavalcanti, a respected kickboxer, was an eye-opener. Now, as a power puncher who will pressure in the small octagon, I don’t see a world where Cachoeira can handle a fighter in Nunes who’s looked a level above in striking exchanges when comparing recent bouts.
UFC Vegas 104 Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds make Nunes a slight betting favorite, but at -175, I’m seeing value on the moneyline.
Cachoeira just isn’t a respected fighter anymore. She’s 36, and I’m surprised she’s still on the roster, and more worryingly with a move to bantamweight, she won’t have as much strength or impact when trading blows. This will cost her against Nunes, who will own the key advantages in what could be a 3-round striking battle.
UFC Pick: Josiane Nunes ML (-175)Â [1.75u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
Nunes ML: Supporting UFC Vegas 104 Facts
- Cachoeira is 36 with a two-fight losing streak.
- Cachoeira has a 4-6 UFC record.
- Nunes won her first 3 UFC bouts.
*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-Gambler
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
