The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to the small cage at the Apex, with a fight card stacked with mid-range talent looking to make a name for themselves! Nzechukwu, Buday, Brito and Sabatini are involved in two main card bangers, and I’m seeing some serious betting value up for grabs.
The time for talking is over; let’s dive right into my favorite UFC Vegas 105 main card analysis and predictions.
Picks Summary
- Kennedy Nzechukwu by KO/TKO (+150)
- Brito/Sabatini Under 2.5 Rounds (-167)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
UFC Event Information
- Date & Time: Saturday, April 05, 2025 – 08:35 PM EDT
- Location: UFC Apex
- Scheduled Fights: 13
- Main Event: Josh Emmett vs. Lerone Murphy (UFC Featherweight Bout)
Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Martin Buday
UFC Heavyweight Main Card Bout
Kennedy Nzechukwu
With a 6-5 UFC record in the light heavyweight division, inconsistent results forced Kennedy Nzechukwu to make a change. Said change came via his weight cuts, and since scrapping the 205lb cut for the heavyweight division, “The African Savage” has wreaked havoc on his opponents, collecting back-to-back first-round knockout wins in the UFC’s heaviest weight class.
Sure, the level of competition wasn’t great, and Nzechukwu has made many questionable fight IQ decisions in the past. However, styles make fights, and his weekend opponent isn’t far above the level of recent foes, thus giving him an edge in making it 3 out of 3 as a heavyweight competitor.
- Nzechukwu Pro MMA Record: 14-5
- Nzechukwu KOs: 10
- Nzechukwu Submissions: 1
Martin Buday
Martin Buday has a 5-1 UFC record in the heavyweight division, and while this seems impressive on paper, we have to consider the level of competition, which has been questionable. He’s fought the lowest of the low, and when facing adversity against Shamil Gaziev in 2023, he crumbled to the pressure and was put out in the second round.
- Buday Pro MMA Record: 14-2
- Buday KOs: 6
- Buday Submissions: 3
Nzechukwu vs. Buday: Fight Tape Analysis
Let’s be honest, Buday is the worst fighter with an impressive UFC record (5-1). A slow, plodding style on the feet is prone to getting knocked out, but fortunately for him, many of his opponents have fought at his level.
Watching Buday barely defeat a 45-year-old Andrei Arlovski, and also going to a split decision with Lukasz Brzeski, are red flags in themselves. Without constant takedowns or cage control, Buday will struggle to handle the speed and power he faces against Nzechukwu as an opponent.
The speed difference in striking exchanges, alongside a 6-inch reach advantage and some serious knockout power, makes Nzechukwu a favorite that we can get behind this week. I won’t go out on a limb and proclaim we have a future title contender here, but stylistically, this is one of the easier matchups in the division, and one he shouldn’t have much trouble overcoming.
UFC Main Card Odds & Prediction
The pricing with the top-rated sportsbooks places Nzechukwu as the betting favorite, and the juice isn’t pretty. However, Buday couldn’t handle the striking of Gaziev, and now he’s going against a significantly more powerful and faster striker, and this MMA math is an equation worth contemplating.
Speed, size and power prevail, and that’s a lesson that Buday will learn this weekend, as the more physically gifted and much more dangerous fighter puts him out in a small cage where there’s nowhere to run.
UFC Pick: Kennedy Nzechukwu by KO/TKO (+150) [1u returns 1.50u profit] at Bet365
Joanderson Brito vs. Pat Sabatini
UFC Vegas 105 Featherweight Main Card Bout
Joanderson Brito
Joanderson Brito lost a close split decision to William Gomis last time out, and now he’s a bum? Come on, I remember the days when the MMA community was calling this savage Brazilian a future title contender.
Brito, aged 30, has arguably yet to reach his prime. He defeated the current featherweight title contender, Diego Lopes, to earn a UFC contract, and all five of his in-octagon wins since have ended by KO/TKO or submission because he’s that guy!
- Brito Pro MMA Record: 17-4-1
- Brito KOs: 7
- Brito Submissions: 8
Pat Sabatini
Pat Sabatini’s grappling prowess has earned him a 6-2 UFC record since he joined the promotion in 2021. With 13 of his 19 career wins coming by submission, it doesn’t take a genius to understand where this Pennsylvania native thrives.
What’s impressive about Sabatini is that he’s fought grappling bouts just as much as in the octagon since joining the UFC. You know he takes his main craft seriously, and if any 145-pounder in the UFC wants to test their grappling, they should think twice about this guy as an opponent.
- Sabatini Pro MMA Record: 19-5
- Sabatini KOs: 1
- Sabatini Submissions: 13
Brito vs. Sabatini: Fight Tape Analysis
From a stylistic standpoint, Sabatini makes every fight a striker-versus-grappler scenario because he’s that damn good on the mat. When you combine an NCAA Division I wrestling and sambo background with a world-class Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, you get him to dominate any kind of opponent in the grappling world; even the UFC’s grappling-based opponents have to resort to striking for some sort of edge.
Brito is the diverse martial artist of the two. However, despite having a respected grappling skill set of his own, his punching power is noteworthy in this contest, as we shouldn’t expect him to risk the lone path to defeat.
UFC Vegas 105 Main Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds place Brito as the betting favorite, and rightfully so. Sabatini is submission or bust, although it will only take one mistake, and he will jump in with vicious intent to force an opponent to tap.
While I do favor the more versatile fighter in Brito, wagering on this fight ending inside the distance feels like the play. Both fighters are renowned finishers in their own right. Whether Sabatini catches a submission or Brito tests the questionable chin of the grappler, I don’t expect this to reach the judges. Given the circumstances, and with the under 2.5 rounds at -167, we cannot complain about that price whatsoever.
UFC Pick: Brito/Sabatini Under 2.5 Rounds (-167) [1.67 returns 1u profit] at Bet365
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