The UFC returns to the trusty old Apex this weekend, and I’m back to cover all your betting desires for a Vegas fight card brimming with rising talent.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into the most noteworthy betting picks for the UFC Vegas 105 preliminary card bouts.
Picks Summary
- Barbosa vs. Belbita – Fight Goes the Distance (+105)
- Lookboonmee by Decision (-175)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Dione Barbosa vs. Diana Belbita
UFC Vegas 105 Women’s Flyweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, April 5, 2025 – 06:00 PM EDT at UFC Apex
Dione Barbosa
Dione Barbosa is just two fights into her UFC career, but going 1-1 with a loss to Miranda Maverick isn’t anything to be ashamed of. The Brazilian’s jiu-jitsu and grappling have been a problem for many of her opponents, something we expect her to utilize in the cage this weekend.
- Barbosa Pro Record: 7-3
- Barbosa KO/TKO Wins: 0
- Barbosa Submission Wins: 3
Diana Belbita
Well, damn, it doesn’t look good for Diana Belbita. Following seven UFC appearances, she has lost five of those contests, including an armbar defeat to the recently retired Molly McCann, as well as a unanimous decision loss to nearly forty-year-old Karolina Kowalkiewicz.
- Belbita Pro Record: 15-9
- Belbita KO/TKO Wins: 6
- Belbita Submission Wins: 4
Barbosa vs. Belbita: Fight Tape Analysis
Belbita isn’t a good fighter. Belbita is fortunate to hold a UFC contract still. More worryingly, Belbita lost by submission to McCann, whose BJJ is far from elite. So, now, she’s facing an opponent with legitimate BJJ in Barbosa, and the consensus is that she’s going to get submitted once again.
Belbita is a scrappy striker, but her 25 pro career fights to date have seen her lose five of those contests by submission. However, expecting lightning to strike twice, back-to-back, in women’s MMA doesn’t feel right for me.
In all honesty, I believe Barbosa is superior to Belbita in stand-up and grappling. However, I’ve watched her sail in fights one-two many times, versus lesser and equal levels of opposition to Belbita, and that worries me for the finish to surface.
UFC Vegas 105 Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds make Barbosa the favorite, and she’s likely going to win this contest. This doesn’t mean, however, that she will finish the fight.
With plus-money on a WMMA fight to go the distance, how can we pass this up? People will act like Barbosa by submission is a lock, and sure, it’s possible. But let’s not act like the Brazilian is some stoppage savage because she isn’t. And if there’s one area of the fight game Belbita will be working on, it’s her grappling defense.
So, let’s back this fight to go the distance, as the echo chamber in the MMA community, which follows trends over logic, gets silenced once again.
FGTD: Supporting UFC Vegas 105 Facts
- Barbosa has gone the distance in 5 of her previous 6 MMA bouts
- Belbita has gone the distance in 5 of her 7 UFC bouts
- Belbita has gone the distance in 4 of her previous 5 UFC bouts
UFC Pick: Fight Goes the Distance (+105) [1u returns 1.05u profit] at Bet365
Loma Lookboonmee vs. Istela Nunes
UFC Vegas 105 Women’s Strawweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, April 5, 2025 – 06:00 PM EDT at UFC Apex
Loma Lookboonmee Preview
Former muay thai kickboxing standout, Loma Lookboonmee, doesn’t just have one of the coolest names in MMA, she’s pretty good at kicking butt too. With eight UFC appearances, six wins, and a three-fight win streak, this Thai striking specialist now prepares for her return as a serious betting favorite in Vegas this weekend.
- Lookboonmee Pro Record: 9-3
- Lookboonmee KO/TKO Wins: 1
- Lookboonmee Submission Wins: 1
Istela Nunes Preview
Istela Nunes has one of the most abysmal UFC women’s strawweight runs in recent memory. There’s no hiding from her 0-4 record, and I don’t believe she’s capable of competing at this level. That said, she’s no slouch in the first five minutes of her fights; the only problem is that beyond this, she looks no better than most regional scene amateurs with a flailing gas tank and questionable decision-making.
- Nunes Pro Record: 6-3
- Nunes KO/TKO Wins: 2
- Nunes Submission Wins: 0
Lookboonmee vs. Nunes: Fight Tape Analysis
A three-fight win streak from Lookboonmee versus a 0-4 UFC record in Nunes. Make this matchmaking make sense!?
Now, I understand that Nunes is a short replacement opponent, but we must beg the question: how does she still have a UFC contract?
To put it bluntly, breaking down Istela Nunes’ skill set is irrelevant due to the fact that said skills aren’t worthy to enter a UFC octagon. She’s a one-round fight, at best, and now, with a four-fight losing streak, she faces one of the strawweight division’s most technical strikers, whose MMA experience to date has been largely supplemented by competing in the UFC.
Eight of Lookboonmee’s 12 professional MMA bouts have taken place under the UFC banner. This experience alone gives her an edge, and when you consider that she’s won the majority of her bouts to date, it’s highly impressive, to say the least.
UFC Vegas 105 Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing with OddsTrader’s top sportsbooks makes Lookboobmee the biggest betting favorite on the Vegas 105 card. For once, I can’t really complain about this number.
Lookboonmee will pick Nunes apart on the feet, and although grappling experience isn’t exactly her forte, I wouldn’t be surprised to see her take the edge in this area of the fight game as well.
How do we find value? Well, despite her impressive skills, Lookboonmee isn’t exactly a woman who finishes her food. Point-fighting has been her style, so backing her to win yet another unanimous decision, at least, holds a high probability while still offering us a set of odds we can vouch for.
Lookboonmee: Supporting UFC Vegas 105 Facts
- Lookboonmee has won 6 of her 8 UFC bouts
- Lookboonmee has won 7 of her 9 career wins by decision
- Nunes is 0-4 in the UFC
UFC Pick: Lookboonmee by Decision (-175) [1.75u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
