UFC returns to Vegas this Saturday, and we’ll witness a battle of Brazil in the main event as former lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos makes his welterweight debut versus the formidable Vicente Luque.
Featherweight gatekeeper Cub Swanson will challenge his extensive octagon experience against Hakeem Dawodu in the co-main event, both of whom are fighting to get back into the win column.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into the most noteworthy betting picks for the UFC Vegas 78 main and co-main event.
Top UFC Vegas 78 Picks
Vicente Luque vs. Rafael dos Anjos
UFC Vegas 78 Welterweight Main Event Bout
Saturday, August 12, 2023 – 04:00 PM EDT at UFC Apex
Watching Vicente Luque (21-9-1 pro-MMA) falter against the welterweight divisions elite has been frustrating for fight fans, but only because of how dominant he’s been for most of his UFC career to date.
Between 2016-2019 Luque amassed a 9-2 record with a 100% finish rate displaying his KO/TKO power and top-notch jiu-jitsu offense. During that time, his only losses came against the current champion Leon Edwards and top-10 mainstay Stephen Thompson.
Despite an impressive resume, Luque cannot match the accolades of his weekend opponent Rafael dos Anjos (32-14-0) – one of the most experienced UFC veterans still competing.
Rafael dos Anjos, 38, has fought the who’s-who of UFC lightweights and was responsible for dethroning Anthony Pettis for the 145lb strap in 2015. He’s garnered more decision-victory wins than any other fighter in the company’s history, thus proving his dominance as one of the most diverse combatants on the roster.
Luque vs. Dos Anjos: Fight Tape Analysis
It’s never simple to gauge how a fighter will fare when switching weight classes, but I think it’s safe to say we can rely on the 33-fight UFC experience of dos Anjos to make the correct decision. He’s seven years the senior of Luque, and the size discrepancy in a shift from lightweight to welterweight will be apparent. Still, he notably owns a recent victory over Renato Moicano, who presented the same challenges.
Luque’s finishing prowess of 8 KO/TKOs and 5 submission victories in the UFC present the biggest threat to RDA. However, defensive wrestling frailties displayed against Belal Muhammad are a blueprint that dos Anjos can take advantage of as he’s an exceptional offensive wrestler/grappler.
UFC Vegas 78 Main Event Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing at the top sportsbooks is almost split on the moneyline value, but Dos Anjos currently owns the slight edge at -125.
I agree with the current line but only due to dos Anjos’s move to welterweight. Skill-for-skill, RDA is the superior fighter, and across three rounds, he’ll have a cardio advantage. He can handle himself in striking situations and is, without question, the outstanding wrestler of the two.
UFC Pick: Rafael dos Anjos ML (-125) at Bet365 [1.25u returns 1u profit]
Cub Swanson vs. Hakeem Dawodu
UFC Vegas 78 Featherweight Co-Main Event Bout
Saturday, August 12, 2023 – 08:50 PM EDT at UFC Apex
We must respect Cub Swanson (28-12-0) and all he achieved during a 12-year stint under the UFC banner. However, the former top-15-ranked mainstay is no more, and he hasn’t defeated a top-ranked opponent since Jeremy Stephens in 2014.
Hakeem Dawodu (13-3-1) hasn’t had the greatest beginnings as a UFC featherweight and is 1-2 in his previous three bouts. With that said, a dangerous muay thai base alongside a speed and durability advantage could be more than enough to receive a passing of the torch from Swanson this Saturday evening.
Swanson vs. Dawodu: Fight Tape Analysis
Both fighters arrive at UFC Vegas 78 with losses in their previous contests. Swanson is a respected striker but, aged 39, is undoubtedly beginning to slow down versus the new guard of professional mixed martial arts.
Swanson’s punching power has been a savior during the latter stage of his career. Still, against the untested chin of Dawodu, it’s difficult to envision him walking out of the Apex with a KO/TKO stoppage. In fact, defensive concerns, specifically around low kicks, could see the kickboxing expertise of Dawodu collect his first KO/TKO stoppage since 2019.
UFC Vegas 78 Co-Main Event Odds & Prediction
The current UFC odds place Dawodu as the betting favorite, and although the juice isn’t pretty, it’s certainly warranted.
Speed, cardio, and age side with Dawodu and Swanson’s inability to defend leg kicks behind a heavy lead leg, will give the Canadian a clear path to victory.
UFC Pick: Hakeem Dawodu ML (-225) at Bet365 [2.25u returns 1u profit]
