The UFC returns to Vegas this Saturday, and we’ll witness a style of clashes in the main event as Grant Dawson, who predominantly relies on his offensive wrestling, clashes with the fundamental boxing skillset of Bobby Green.
Hot prospect Anthony Joaquin Buckley looks to extend his impressive win-by-knockout percentage when he exchanges leather with Alex Morono on the main card, both of whom are vying for welterweight rankings supremacy.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into the most noteworthy betting picks for the UFC Vegas 80 main card.
Picks Summary
- Dawson-Green Under 4.5 Rounds (-210) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
- Joaquin Buckley ML (-170) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Grant Dawson vs. Bobby Green
UFC Vegas 80 Lightweight Main Event Bout
Saturday, October 7, 2023 – 08:50 PM EDT at UFC Apex
Nine fights, eight wins, one majority draw; you could say that Grant Dawson’s (15-12-0 pro-MMA) tenure as a UFC competitor has been a successful one to date. But as the Nebraska native gradually climbs through the UFC lightweight rankings, will he discover the same success and pass the litmus test of competing versus the promotion’s upper echelon of competitors?
Without a shadow of a doubt, Bobby Green (12-3-0) will be the biggest test of Dawson’s career to date. The Pinnacle MMA representative boasts a whopping 45 professional fights on his record and has been gatekeeping the UFC’s lightweight division for the last decade.
Dawon vs. Green: Fight Tape Analysis
A clash of styles will play out during the UFC Vegas 80 main event, as the wrestler in Dawson will look to eliminate the smooth boxing fundamentals of Green. Unfortunately for the latter, the variables surrounding this bout favor his opponent, and his overall game has revealed defensive wrestling flaws.
Age, power, durability, cage size, and career trajectory are the variables that favor Dawson. We can expect nothing less than a grapple-fest from the American Top Team representative, as he’ll understand the task at hand with such a dangerous striker in front of him.
UFC Vegas 80 Main Event Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing at OddsTrader’s top-rated sportsbooks has slapped a disgustingly large moneyline price on Dawson, and we’d rather not damage our long-term ROI% by backing such a number.
However, I suspect this contest won’t play out through all five rounds. Dawson does such a good job of chaining his takedown attempts, and these attempts often transition right into a submission offensive.
As Dawson’s 50% submission rate from 8 UFC wins to date is something to consider, so is the fact that Green’s previous two losses in the UFC were finished inside the distance.
Furthermore, all five of Green’s previous UFC bouts ended inside the distance, while 3 of Dawson’s last 5 also ended before the judges could intervene. With that said, back the under 4.5 rounds, and despite the juice, it’s much more desirable than the moneyline odds.
UFC Pick: Under 4.5 Rounds (-210) [2.10u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
Alex Morono vs. Joaquin Buckley
UFC Vegas 80 Welterweight Bout
Saturday, October 7, 2023 – 08:00 PM EDT at UFC Apex
Alex Morono (23-8-0 Pro-MMA record) is one of UFC’s most impressive, lackluster fighters. I don’t take pleasure in being brutally honest, but “The Great White” is 5-1 in his last 6 UFC bouts because he’s received an incredibly fortunate stretch of matchmaking.
Opposite the Fortis MMA product will be Joaquin Buckley (10-2-0 Pro-MMA record). He’s faced a much stiffer level of competition at 170lbs, and despite owning an undesirable 6-4 promotion record, I’m struggling to understand why we’re receiving such an incredible moneyline price on “New Mansa” this weekend.
Morono vs. Buckley: Fight Tape Analysis
In short, Morono is an overachiever with cardio, fight IQ, and output that’s heavily assisted him in keeping a positive UFC record. But for some strange reason, the betting public believes he can overcome Buckley’s speed, athleticism, power, and age difference this weekend.
From a technical standpoint, I cannot find the positives in Morono’s game. He doesn’t excel in any area; he’s simply a man who comes to fight, and the dog in him has found minor success that I presume bettors are banking on.
I envision Buckley landing his power strikes at will this weekend versus an opponent that isn’t the most defensively intelligent. And skill for skill, there’s no evidence that Morono can handle this significant step up in competition.
UFC Vegas 80 Main Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds have placed Buckley as the betting favorite, but a price of -170 should be around -250, in my opinion. Let’s snatch up this amazing value.
I absolutely love Buckley in this position. And sure, there’s a world where Buckley could overexert himself and gas out. But even then, his power should be enough to capitalize on Morono in the later rounds, an opponent who isn’t much of a finishing threat whatsoever.
UFC Pick: Joaquin Buckley (-170) [1.70u returns 1u profit] at Caesars Sportsbook
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