The UFC returns to Nevada this weekend for the final Fight Night Vegas event of 2023, and we’re covering all your betting needs for a fight card stacked with Asian and Oceania talent.
Let’s waste no more time and dive into the most noteworthy betting picks for the UFC Vegas 83 preliminary.
Picks Summary
Carlos Hernandez vs. Tatsuro Taira
UFC Vegas 83 Flyweight Main Event Bout
Saturday, December 09, 2023 – 08:05 PM ET at UFC Apex
Tatsuro Taira
Tatsuro Taira dominated the Japanese regional scene before turning 22 years old, amassing an undefeated amateur record and a perfect 10-0 professional record before his 2022 UFC debut. He is 2-0 so far in 2022 after defeating Edgar Chairez by decision after strangling out Jesus Aguilar and surviving both a knockdown and submission attempt.
The beauty of Dana White’s Contender Series and the show’s ability to showcase up-and-coming is perfectly displayed with rising stars such as Taira. Aged just 23 with a 14-0 record, Japan undoubtedly has a future flyweight star on their hands.
- Taira Pro Record: 14-0-0
- Taira KO/TKO Wins: 3
- Taira Submission Wins: 7
Carlos Hernandez
Carlos Hernandez achieved consecutive victories against Daniel Barez (DWCS) and Victor Altamirano (UFC debut) until his winning run was ended by Allan Nascimento by submission. In June 2023, he made a remarkable comeback by defeating Denys Bondar at the APEX.
While a confidence boost could be found from his APEX experience, unfortunately, split-decision victories and a rear-naked choke loss don’t bode well with an opponent like Taira lined up.
- Hernandez Pro Record: 9-2-0
- Hernandez KO/TKO Wins: 0
- Hernandez Submission Wins: 4
Taira vs. Hernandez: Fight Tape Analysis
This is the fifth successive occasion on which Taira has competed against a former participant of the Contender Series. Although Hernandez may be superior to the previous four individuals, I do not anticipate any deviation from the expected outcome.
Taira possesses exceptional grappling abilities that are more than adequate to replicate Nascimento’s previous achievements. Furthermore, his superior reach will give him an advantage in any extended striking encounters.
More worryingly for Hernandez, most of his past success has been behind a grappling game, and he isn’t on the same level as his Japanese foe. With zero knockouts and a lack of punching power, he also doesn’t pose a threat in striking situations.
Concisely, Taira will again demonstrate his superiority on the ground by achieving another submission stoppage.
UFC Vegas 83 Main Event Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing with OddsTrader’s top sportsbooks has placed a large moneyline price tag on Taira, which is expected. For this reason, backing the Japanese favorite to win alongside the under 2.5 rounds can offer a more respectable betting value.
Taira & Under 2.5: Supporting UFC Vegas 83 Facts
- Taira has won 50% of his pro-MMA bouts via submission (7)
- Taira has won 50% of his UFC bouts via submission (2)
- Hernandez’s lone UFC loss was by submission
UFC Pick: Taira & Under 2.5 (-105) [1u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
Kenan Song vs. Kevin Jousset
UFC Vegas 83 Welterweight Main Event Bout
Saturday, December 09, 2023 – 10:10 PM ET at UFC Apex
Kevin Jousset
Kevin Jousset successfully obtained the belts for both the Middleweight and Welterweight divisions in the Hex Fight Series over a short span of three months.
As part of the City Kickboxing team, he debuted in Sydney’s major UFC 293 event. He won in the later part of the first round against fellow newbie Kiefer Crosbie, extending his winning run to four fights and bringing his total record to 9-2.
- Jousset Pro Record: 9-2-0
- Jousset KO/TKO Wins: 4
- Jousset Submission Wins: 1
Kenan Song
With a record of 20-7, Song Kenan initially had a successful start in the UFC with a 4-1 record. However, he then saw a decline, losing two consecutive fights over two years.
As a result of the decline, he entered as a considerable underdog against Rolando Bedoya. However, “The Assassin” recovered from a difficult first round and emerged victorious, achieving his first win since 2020.
He has achieved 18 stoppage wins, 9 being knockouts and 8 being submissions. But more interestingly, 4 of his career losses were by KO/TKO.
- Song Pro Record: 21-7-0
- Song KO/TKO Wins: 9
- Song Submission Wins: 9
Jousset vs. Song: Fight Tape Analysis
I’m not claiming Jousset to be on the same level as Ian Garry, but much like when the Irishman dominated Song, glaring advantages such as height, reach, and a long-range striking arsenal will favor the Aussie fighter in this spot.
For the most part, Song’s grappling defenses haven’t been tested, and he doesn’t utilize much grappling of his own. This could be an even bigger path to victory for Jousset, alongside questionable durability, possibly presenting a KO/TKO opportunity.
UFC 2 Main Event Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds have again placed Song as an underdog, and although he prevailed in this position last time out, I expect his luck to run thin on Saturday.
With his proficiency in Judo and quick reflexes, Jousset should be capable of avoiding Song’s powerful strikes and executing takedowns anytime Song attempts to engage aggressively.
Ultimately, Jousset accumulates shots from a distance and dominates Song in close combat, resulting in a clear victory by decision.
Jousset Moneyline: Supporting UFC Vegas 83 Facts
- Song has struggled with taller fighters in the past
- Two of Song’s three UFC losses were by KO/TKO
- Jousset has won 4 of his 9 pro career bouts via KO/TKO
UFC Pick: Jousset ML (-160) [1.60u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
