The UFC returns to the Apex in Las Vegas this weekend, and we’re covering all your betting needs for a fight card filled with MMA talent and opportune betting positions.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into the most noteworthy betting picks for the UFC Vegas 86 preliminary card.
Picks Summary
- Jeremiah Wells ML (-150)
- Zac Pauga ML (-125)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Jeremiah Wells vs. Max Griffin
UFC Vegas 86 Welterweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, February 10, 2024 – 04:00 PM ET at UFC Apex
Jeremiah Wells
Jeremiah Wells burst into the UFC welterweight with a domineering run, winning three consecutive bouts inside the distance between 2021 and 2022. However, since fighting a higher caliber of opposition, certain flaws in his game have been exposed, and we now question whether he can bounce back from his first UFC defeat this weekend.
- Wells Pro Record: 12-3-1
- Wells KO/TKO Wins: 5
- Wells Submission Wins: 4
Max Griffin
Max Griffin doesn’t boast the most impressive resume with a 7-8 promotional record. Still, he’s fought up and down the welterweight division since 2016 and has undoubtedly collected a lot of respectable experience.
We can question his ability to find a winning game plan and challenge his striking and grappling credentials. Still, we cannot refute Griffin’s toughness, as just one of his 29 professional MMA bouts has ended in a stoppage loss.
- Griffin Pro Record: 19-10-0
- Griffin KO/TKO Wins: 9
- Griffin Submission Wins: 2
Wells vs. Griffin: Fight Tape Analysis
It’s clear that an offensive striking game plan would be the most idealistic path to victory for Griffin, as his most notable struggles have undoubtedly arrived in the wrestling/grappling department.
Unfortunately for him, Wells is no slouch in the offensive wrestling department. And we shouldn’t expect a clinch or trip takedown, as brute strength and blast doubles are often the route to grounded top positions for Wells.
Cardio is a concern for Wells, especially if he plans to wrestle for three rounds. Succeeding in the first two rounds is crucial. Still, Griffin has regularly lacked in his overall output and often gives up positional advantages, which never look great from a judge’s perspective.
UFC Vegas 86 Main Event Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing with OddsTrader’s top sportsbooks has placed a reasonable money line price on Wells.
Watching the likes of Tim Means implement a grounded game plan and succeed against Griffin is enough for me because the powerful takedowns of Wells should be more than enough to prevent the underdog from scoring points.
Griffin’s durability will likely be his most notable attribute on Saturday. Still, he won’t be the fighter leaving the Apex with his hand raised after suffering three rounds of intense wrestling.
UFC Pick: Wells ML (-150) [1.50u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
Zac Pauga vs. Bogdan Guskov
UFC Vegas 86 Light Heavyweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, February 10, 2024 – 04:00 PM ET at UFC Apex
Zac Pauga
Just eight fights deep into his pro-MMA career with a 1-2 UFC record, Zac Pauga isn’t exactly the poster boy for confident betting predictions. Still, he does possess legitimate skills and a grinding, relentless style that may not be pretty, but it’s certainly effective.
- Pauga Pro Record: 6-2-0
- Pauga KO/TKO Wins: 1
- Pauga Submission Wins: 0
Bogdan Guskov
Bogdan Guskov, with 17 pro bouts and 14 wins, looks impressive on paper. However, his technical abilities are questionable, and a lack of success versus a high level of opposition is concerning ahead of his second octagon appearance this weekend.
- Guskov Pro Record: 14-3-0
- Guskov KO/TKO Wins: 12
- Guskov Submission Wins:2
Pauga vs. Guskov: Fight Tape Analysis
Pauga boasts a drowning style, and despite losing two of his three UFC bouts to date, he always pushes himself to the limit in looking for a path to victory. He avoids making mistakes and will adapt his game to whatever game plan is thrown at him.
Nicely timed takedowns and relentless pressure are notable positives in Pauga’s game. While I don’t envision him being a future top-ranked fighter, Saturday’s bout presents a very winnable matchup.
Guskov, as previously mentioned, looks great on paper, but he’s fought an incredibly low level of opposition. When Volkan Oezdemir was presented in his UFC debut, it was a rear-naked choke in the first round that fraud checked his record.
UFC Vegas 86 Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds boards remain cautious with -125 odds on Pauga, but Guskov’s strange movement, questionable technique and lack of wrestling defense don’t show much cause for concern.
Pauga will fight for our money, and should he become uncomfortable in the striking realm, he’ll instantly turn this bout into a grappling war and, with a noteworthy cardio, should easily maintain control.
UFC Pick: Pauga ML (-125) [1.25u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
