The UFC travels is back to Sin City for another slate of octagon wars this weekend, and we’re covering all your betting needs for a Fight Night card stacked with talent aiming to greater their ranking positions in style.
Let’s stop wasting time and sink right into our most noteworthy betting picks for the UFC Vegas 89 preliminary card bouts for March 23, 2024.
Picks Summary
- Mick Parkin ML (-140)
- Cody Gibson ML (+125)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Mohammed Usman vs. Mick Parkin
UFC Vegas 89 Heavyweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, March 23, 2024 – 07:10 PM ET at UFC Apex
Mohammed Usman
Ultimate Fighter 30 winner Mohammed Usman owns the surname of legend, but can he build himself to the top tier of the heavyweight division and similarly conquer the octagon to his brother, Kamaru?
He’s certainly on the right track with a perfect 3-0 record since officially joining the UFC in 202. However, as the matchups gradually became more challenging, he presented multiple concerns in the octagon that could see him eventually face defeat.
- Usman Pro Record: 10-2-0
- Usman KO/TKO Wins: 4
- Usman Submission Wins: 2
Mick Parkin
Mick Parkin has been in multiple underdog positions since arriving at the Contender Series and the UFC, but the British brute continues to prove his doubters wrong behind an 8-0 record.
The up-and-comer has now swept through two Contender Series standouts and choked his way to victory in his own Contender Series come-out party.
- Parkin Pro Record: 8-0-0
- Parkin KO/TKO Wins: 5
- Parkin Submission Wins: 1
Usman vs. Parkin: Fight Tape Analysis
Twelve minutes of top control and seven strikes landed against Junior Tafa were all I needed to see to know that Usman had a lot of work to do. He then defeated Jake Collier, one of the worst heavyweights in the division, and still didn’t impress us much with a unanimous decision.
Power and strength may very well side with Usman, but Parkin’s weaknesses are easily pinpointed. It’s all Parkin in striking exchanges, with the only worry being a takedown threat.
That said, Usman isn’t cut from the wrestling cloth of his brother, and his shots, for the most part, aren’t pretty. I could see Parking stuffing those takedowns, out-landing the underdog across all three rounds, and finally exposing Usman, who many claim is prime to be fraud-checked anytime soon.
UFC Vegas 89 Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds make Parkin the betting favorite, and it’s easy to see why.
Usman is a slow, plodding striker with low volume, and if he cannot lay on top of Parkin for 15 minutes or catch a lucky one-punch bomb, I don’t envision this contest going very well for him.
Don’t get me wrong; Parkin is no world-beater, and his performance against Caio Machado had flaws. However, he’s big enough and fast enough to defend the takedowns, which should lead to a striking battle in which he’ll easily outmatch his opponents’ significant strikes.
UFC Pick: Mick Parkin ML (-140) [1.4u returns 1u profit] with Bet365
Miles Johns vs. Cody Gibson
UFC Vegas 89 Bantamweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, March 23, 2024 – 08:50 PM ET at UFC Apex
Miles Johns
Miles Johns is 4-2 as a UFC competitor since debuting in 2019. He’s enjoyed slow-paced contests to date, as they have allowed him to ease into fights and get his game plan up and running. However, when the pressure is put on (See Bautista and Castenda), he’s easily finished, as defensive deficiencies are clearly his downfall in these moments.
- Johns Pro Record: 13-2-0
- Johns KO/TKO Wins: 4
- Johns Submission Wins: 2
Cody Gibson
Cody Gibson is just a firecracker inside the octagon, and sometimes, his high-energy presence has cost him. That said, you know he’s going to fight for your money, and although he was formerly cut from the UFC, he rejuvenated his career by reaching the TUF finales and sweeping several up-and-coming contenders.
- Gibson Pro Record: 19-9-0
- Gibson KO/TKO Wins: 7
- Gibson Submission Wins: 2
Johns vs. Gibson: Fight Tape Analysis
Aged 36, naturally, concerns about Gibson’s ability to keep up with the younger generation with such a high pace he fights behind is a concern. Fortunately for him, Johns hasn’t exactly been a shining example of excellent cardio.
Johns can crack, but the wild haymakers he throws aren’t something to behold. Mario Bautista and John Castaneda had no issue reading those strikes, and to be honest, putting the pressure on Johns seems to make him uncomfortable in fights where he likes to side with a more technical approach.
A mixed offense, with strikes coming from all angles, could put Johns in an unfavorable position. He’s also good at implementing wrestling into his offense, and a super-high volume will be hard to match without the same level of energy.
UFC Vegas 89 Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing with our top sportsbooks makes Gibson the underdog, and I cannot ignore that price. This line should be closer to a pick-em because both fighters present skill set concerns that can be exposed.
Gibson, however, cardio into the late second and third rounds is a concern, but I don’t believe John’s is the gas tank machine that capitalizes on such a weakness.
The striking volume game is all Gibson’s, and I don’t believe he’ll have to worry about a wrestling/grappling threat. My lone concern is the cardio, but as mentioned, Johns isn’t known for handling high-paced bouts or managing his gas tank well.
UFC Pick: Cody Gibson ML (+125) [1u returns 1.25u profit] at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
