The UFC returns for another fight night event before the big pay-per-view next Saturday, and this weekend, the Apex in Las Vegas will host 12 intriguing octagon battles.
Cody Durden, Bruno Silva, Kurt Holobaugh, and Kaynan Kruschewsky are involved in two main card bouts, and I’ve found some notable betting value at top sportsbooks that are being overlooked.
Let’s waste no more time and dive into my favorite UFC Vegas 94 main card best bets and predictions. And be sure to check out our YouTube channel for more UFC picks.
Picks Summary
- Bruna Silva ML (+100) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Holobaugh/Kruschewsky Under 2.5 Rounds (-135) at Bet365
Cody Durden vs. Bruno Silva
UFC Vegas 94 Flyweight Main Card Bout
Saturday, July 20, 2024 – 05:00 PM ET at the UFC Apex
Cody Durden
He isn’t spectacular in any one area of martial arts, but he’s got that dog in him! A relentless wrestling offensive is always a worry for his opponents, and a grinding, non-stop style has assisted him in winning five of his nine UFC bouts to date.
- Durden Pro MMA Record: 16-5-1
- Durden KOs: 6
- Durden Submissions: 5
Bruno Silva
His obvious downfall is his lack of in-octagon activity. Since 2019, he’s only fought six times, although he is riding a three-fight win streak with three wins inside the distance since 2021.
Most impressively, Silva finished Tyson Nam last year, a veteran fighter who’d never been previously stopped by submission in 34 pro fights until he crossed paths with the Brazilian.
- Silva Pro MMA Record: 13-5-2
- Silva KOs: 5
- Silva Submissions: 4
Durden vs. Silva: Fight Tape Analysis
What happens when Cody Durden shoots for takedowns and fails? We have an experienced fighter in Silva, who’s fought under the Fight Ready MMA and American Top Team banners. Silva is undoubtedly going to have a striking advantage over the wrestling-heavy Durden.
MMA math doesn’t always work out, but both men have notably fought Tagir Ulanbekov. While they both lost, Silva put up a valiant effort as Durden got absolutely battered and choked out.
Silva has the BJJ chops to avoid precarious submission positions should the fight hit the ground. He also owns the scrambling ability and a serviceable takedown defense to keep this fight standing. In a kickboxing war, the underdog will prevail, and he also has the “dog in him” to match the dog in his opponent.
UFC Vegas 94 Main Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing with OddsTraders top sportsbooks has placed Silva as a +100 underdog, and I can’t make a strong enough argument not to take a chance on this price point.
Durden will look like a fish out of water when consistent takedowns and top control don’t become viable. Historically, it hasn’t gone well for him whenever he’s fought opponents with enough grappling kickback.
UFC Pick: Silva ML (+100) [1u returns 1u profit] at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Kurt Holobaugh vs. Kaynan Kruschewsky
UFC Vegas 94 Welterweight Main Card Bout
Saturday, July 20, 2024 – 05:00 PM ET at the UFC Apex
Kurt Holobaugh
He is 1-5 in the UFC since 2018 and has been cut and brought back by the promotion since that debut via TUF. It’s been an ugly run for the Louisiana native, who’s notably never left his gym in the Bayou State and is now a few weeks away from his 38th birthday.
- Holobaugh Pro MMA Record: 20-18-0
- Holobaugh KOs: 7
- Holobaugh Submissions: 10
Kaynan Kruschewsky
Aged 33, the Brazilian was late to the party, making his name known on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2023 with a first-round submission win. However, his promotional debut at the end of last year didn’t turn out so great, with Elves Brenner wiping the floor with him inside the first round.
- Kruschewsky Pro MMA Record: 15-2-0
- Kruschewsky KOs: 4
- Kruschewsky Submissions: 9
Holobaugh vs. Kruschewsky: Fight Tape Analysis
Holobaugh’s skillset is backed up with a BJJ blackbelt, and he’s always shined versus lower-level opposition. He’s a constant threat on the ground, but his striking offense has much to be desired. He doesn’t lack physicality, but he does suffer in the striking volume numbers, and at 38 years old, what more can he bring to the octagon?
Kruschewsky doesn’t have the attributes to run home about, but the man knows how to finish a fight and welcomes it. His UFC debut was a lamb-to-slaughter situation, but now he’ll face a much more winnable fight.
UFC Vegas 94 Main Card Odds & Prediction
Skill levels aside, the UFC pricing with OddsTraders’ top sportsbooks has an interesting price on Under 2.5 rounds.
Both fighters can win by knockout or submission; going the distance hasn’t been in their DNA. Kruschewsky has gone the distance in just two of his 17 pro-MMA bouts, while Holobaugh has seen the judges’ scorecards in just one of his last six.
I don’t believe either fighter deserves a UFC contract, but the lack of elite ability will assist a knockout or submission. I side with the latter, as Holobaugh loves to welcome grapplers, and two fighters with a love for jiu-jitsu will give a neck for the choking at some point during this bout.
UFC Pick: Under 2.5 Rounds (-135) [1.35u returns 1u profit] at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-Gambler
