The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to the octagon this Saturday as the Apex in Las Vegas prepares for a banger of a fight card! Rob Font, Kyler Phillips, Su Mudaerji and Charles Johnson are involved in two main card bangers, and I’m seeing some serious betting value up for grabs.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into my favorite UFC Vegas 99 main card analysis and predictions.
Picks Summary
- Johnson by Decision (+130)Â
- Phillips by KO or Submission (+225)Â
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
UFC Vegas 99 Event Information
- Date & Time: Saturday, October 19, 2024 – 04:00 PM ET
- Location: UFC Apex
- Scheduled Fights: 11
- Main Event: Michel Pereira vs. Anthony Hernandez (UFC Middleweight Bout)
Su Mudaerji vs. Charles Johnson
UFC Vegas 99 Flyweight Main Card Bout
Su Mudaerji
The UFC continues to push its Asian-based fighters, but Su Mudaerji might not be the one capable of reaching the top rankings. He did go 3-1 between his debut in 2019 and 2021, but back-to-back submission losses against Matt Schnell and Tim Elliott have kept him on the sidelines since December 2023. At the very least, it’ll be intriguing to see if he’s improved in any areas, as he’s just 28 years old.
- Su Mudaerji Pro MMA Record: 16-6-0
- Su Mudaerji KOs: 13
- Su Mudaerji Submissions: 1
Charles Johnson
Charles Johnson was actually on a similar trajectory to his weekend opponent, but after suffering a three-fight losing streak last year, the Kansas native flipped the script on us. 2024 has been Johnson’s breakout year, and after crushing three prospects in Azat Maksum, Jake Hadley and Joshua Van as a betting underdog, we can no longer ignore his evolution in the cage!
- Johnson Pro MMA Record: 16-6-0
- Johnson KOs: 6
- Johnson Submissions: 4
Su Mudaerji vs. Johnson: Fight Tape Analysis
Su Mudaerji’s flaws are obvious. His grappling isn’t great, his wrestling is average, and outside of a striking war, he’s a limited mixed martial artist in the cage.
Johnson, undoubtedly, has more ways to win this weekend. However, we must expect a grappling game plan to be the most viable path to victory. We’ve seen him get tagged in the past, and although he’s not a terrible striker by any means, it’s quite clear that a grappling blueprint will be the simplest way to overcome his foe.
While Johnson can crack at range and find his flow in the boxing realm, I wouldn’t be surprised if Su Mudaerji held the advantages in a kickboxing scrap. This shouldn’t be an issue; however, as previously mentioned, Su’s wrestling deficiencies are evident, and Johnson is capable of capitalizing on them.
UFC Vegas 99 Main Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing with top-rated sportsbooks places Johnson as the betting favorite, and considering Su Mudaerji’s tenure to date, we shouldn’t be surprised at the price point.
I don’t enjoy playing -200 and above on Johnson, but he’s fought back from a losing streak to cash as a betting underdog in three consecutive fights, and it seems that a turning point in his career is playing out.
Although he’s not a wrestling-heavy fighter, we know he can ground opponents, and this will be imperative should he feel uncomfortable in striking situations. Arguably, Su Mudaerji is his easiest opponent from all three of his fights in 2024, and ultimately, while the Chinaman will keep himself in the fight, it won’t be enough to overcome Johnson on the scorecards.
UFC Pick: Johnson by Decision (+130)Â [1u returns 1.3u profit] at Bet365
Rob Font vs. Kyler Phillips
UFC Vegas 99 Bantamweight Main Card Bout
Rob Font
The lone concern around Rob Font’s career pits the question: how much does he have left to give? We cannot deny the New England Cartel representative’s commendable UFC career to date, slick boxing skills, and ascension to the top 15 rankings of the bantamweight division, but aged 37, he’s slowing down, and four losses from his previous five appearances isn’t good luck.
- Font Pro MMA Record: 20-8-0
- Font KOs: 9
- Font Submissions: 4
Kyler Phillips
Font’s weekend opponent, Kyler Phillips, sits at the opposite end of the scale. Aged 29, training alongside the likes of Sean O’Malley at the MMA Lab, Phillips has barely started his UFC career. That said, in the seven fights he’s fought in since 2021, he’s registered six clear-cut victories and just one defeat. Victory this weekend would be his most notable win to date and one that would surely throw him in the mix as a potential title challenger of the future.
- Phillips Pro MMA Record: 12-2-0
- Phillips KOs: 5
- Phillips Submissions: 2
Font vs. Phillips: Fight Tape Analysis
We know what Rob Font’s all about… those hands! He’s got some great boxing skills, but no matter how excellent his jab and tight pugilist skills might be, he’s never handled his grappling game too well, as offensive wrestlers and skilled grapplers continue to be his kryptonite.
Phillips epitomizes the mixed in MMA, and this versatile style has allowed him to school 90% of his UFC foes to date. Even Phillips’s lone loss was a robbery on the scorecards, and more perfectly for him this weekend, he owns beautiful offensive wrestling and jiu-jitsu skills, thus playing right into his opponent’s weaknesses.
UFC Vegas 99 Main Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds make Phillips the largest betting favorite from the UFC Vegas 99 schedule. Is it justified? One would question this, especially considering he’s never fought an opponent on Font’s level.
Despite the clear discrepancy in high-level experience, youth, speed and career trajectory will play a huge role in this bout. Font’s time at the top of the mountain is over, and Phillips, with a commendable takedown and ground game, excellent movement, and unpredictable striking offense, is primed to put himself on the map with an authoritative victory.
The moneyline isn’t worth touching, but honestly, despite Font’s durability, I believe the grappling differential between these two will be so large that Phillip’s will have his way on the mat until a TKO or submission finish becomes available.
UFC Pick: Phillips by KO or Submission (+225) [1 returns 2.25u profit] at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
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