NCAAF Pick: USC Over 10.5 Wins (+150) at Bet365
The Southern California Trojans aren’t messing around. There are approximately one gazillion dollars to be made in college football these days, and tUSC is busy grabbing the biggest slice possible for themselves; last summer’s announced defection to the Big Ten for 2024, alongside UCLA, has effectively destroyed the Pac-12.
USC doesn’t need the Conference of Champions. They’re uniquely positioned to dominate this sport now that it’s gone national in scope, and the Trojans should have at least some betting value while they’re still clawing their way back to the top.
The sharps already know this, of course. USC opened with a regular-season win total of 9.5 on the NCAAF futures board; as we go to press, the top online sportsbooks have their total set at 10.5, although they do have the Over, priced at +150.
That looks like a tasty bet from where we’re standing. The Trojans are already reaping the rich rewards of the new college football landscape, attracting enough talent through the transfer portal to win them 11 games – with a more than reasonable shot at running the table.
Going Out West
Ah yes, the transfer portal. Before 2021, if you played Division I football and you wanted to change schools, you had to sit out for a year. Almost every other sport allowed you to play right away for your new team – and now all of them do, across Divisions I, II and III.
Of course, everyone’s coming to Southern California. Never mind all those non-students moving from California to Texas; this corner of the world is ideally suited for playing college football, which runs from September through January.
And of course, everyone wants to play for Lincoln Riley. This will be Riley’s second season at USC after winning four straight Big 12 titles at Oklahoma while turning both Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray into Heisman Trophy winners and No. 1 overall picks at the NFL Draft.
The Williams Wall
Get ready to add Caleb Williams to that list. Williams already has the Heisman under his belt after leading the Trojans to an 11-1 record (8-5 ATS) during the 2022 regular season. Now he’s the +550 favorite at Caesars Sportsbook to win his second Heisman, and a top candidate to go first overall at the 2023 Draft.
Williams has the luxury of executing the plan that Riley puts in front of him. A former third-string QB at Texas Tech, Riley took an assistant job for head coach Mike Leach in 2003 and started working his way up the ladder, all while learning the ins and outs of Leach’s “Air Raid” offense.
Twenty years later, here we are with Williams coming off an incredible campaign of 4,537 passing yards and 42 touchdowns with just five picks. USC’s offense finished third on the F+ Ratings at BCF Toys, and the Trojans nearly made the College Football Playoff before losing the Pac-12 title to Utah.
A Little Help Here
Now it’s time for Riley and the Trojans to take the next step. Their offense around Williams could be even better this year, now that WR Dorian Singer (Arizona), RB MarShawn Lloyd (South Carolina) and guards Jarrett Kingston (Washington State) and Emmanuel Pregnon (Wyoming) are coming to Los Angeles.
Here’s where things get really interesting. Riley’s Oklahoma teams were generally substandard on defense, and last year’s Trojans ranked No. 101 nationwide in that department according to F+. This is where they’ll get their upward mobility in 2023. Let’s break it down by levels:
Defensive Line
- DT Kyon Barrs (Arizona)
- DT Jack Sullivan (Purdue)
- DT Bear Alexander (Georgia)
- DE Jamil Muhammad (Georgia State)
- DE Anthony Lucas (Texas A&M)
Linebackers
- LB Mason Cobb (Oklahoma State)
Secondary
- CB Christian Roland-Wallace (Arizona)
- CB Tre’Quon Fegans (Alabama)
The Pick
Not only have the Trojans beefed up their entire defense, but they’ve also done it at the expense of Arizona, one of several weakened opponents in what was already a soft conference; USC (plus-3.49) ranked No. 39 last year according to the Strength of Schedule numbers at Sports Reference.
Utah isn’t soft by any means, but the defending Pac-12 champs are one of those weakened opponents – and they’re early 6.5-point road dogs for their October 21 tilt at the Coliseum against the Utes.
The only troubling away dates for USC this year are October 14 at Notre Dame (+1.5) and November 11 at Oregon (-2.5), two more big-name teams who will thrive in the brave new world of college football.
Expect one loss from these two games, and bet accordingly.
NCAAF Pick: USC Over 10.5 Wins (+150) at Bet365
