No matter which candidate you want to vote for in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, most people can agree we all want to see the outcome decided as soon as possible, preferably on the night of Election Day (November 5).
No one wants to see a repeat of Al Gore vs. George W. Bush in 2000, or even the 2020 election was not called for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris until approximately 3.5 days after the polls opened.
The good news is that 2024 does not have a pandemic like 2020 did, so there shouldn’t be as many mail-in ballots to go through this time. However, a place like Maricopa County in Arizona, a swing state, is notoriously slow at counting every vote, and there are already rumors it could take 10-to-13 days there. Not sure how that’s still possible in 2024, but this is where we are.
Ultimately, getting a quick, decisive outcome in 2024 could prove to be a pipe dream. Not every state counts votes as efficiently as the other, and what happens in the case of a tie? The tie scenarios are covered below to help prepare you for the possible delay in the results this November.
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What Does a Tie Mean in the US Presidential Election?
This has already been such a historic presidential election with Vice President Kamala Harris becoming the party candidate so late in the process after incumbent Joe Biden dropped out.
We have seen the polls at a standstill for weeks in key battleground states, and the betting odds at most online sportsbooks have swung wildly in recent weeks from Harris having a 56% likelihood of winning to Donald Trump now topping 60% at some oddsmakers. No one can say with a straight face exactly what to expect in this election.
So, what would happen if this election made modern history by ending in a tie? That hasn’t happened since 1800, and things were far different and incomparable to the system in place today.
Down to the Wire
Today, a candidate must receive at least 270 of the 538 electoral college votes from the 50 states to win the presidency. Theoretically, there can be a 269-269 tie where neither candidate reaches the magic number of 270, therefore neither has won the election.
It should be noted that this is very unlikely to happen. According to the FiveThirtyEight prediction model, there is a less than 1 in 100 chance of a tie where neither candidate wins a majority of electoral college votes. However, their model has been showing such a close race in the last week that, on October 23, their model showed each candidate with 269 votes. But that’s an average of the simulations rather than a projected finish.
Still, there are at least three scenarios where it could end in a 269-269 tie in 2024. Here are the three most likely combinations to produce a 269-269 tie:
- Trump wins Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada while Harris wins Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona.
- Trump wins Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Michigan while Harris wins Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada.
- Trump wins Florida, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Michigan while Harris wins North Carolina, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada.
Again, those are the most likely (but still unlikely) combinations of state outcomes to produce a 269-269 tie.
The Updated U.S. Presidential Election Betting Odds
With the ever-changing political landscape, you can expect significant changes every week.
Donald Trump is as short as -188 at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review), making his victory a better than 63% chance, after having been an underdog following the coronation of Kamala Harris and the summer campaign of joy following Biden’s unceremonious replacement.
2024 U.S.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
| 2024 Presidential Candidate | Bet365 CA Betting Odds | Implied Win Probability | SportsInteraction CA Betting Odds | Implied Win Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | -188 | 65.28% | -175 | 63.69% |
| Kamala Harris | +150 | 40.00% | +135 | 42.55% |
Editor’s Note: The odds referenced in this article were current at the time of publication. For updated odds, refer to the table above.
How Does the Tie Get Broken?
In the unlikely event of a 269-269 tie, there are rules to follow from the 12th Amendment to break it. The onus to select the new president would fall on the newly elected members of the House of Representatives.
Even though there are over 400 of those Congress members, the rules make it so that all 50 states each get one vote for president. So, the candidate (Trump or Harris) who gets to a majority 26 votes from the House would win the presidency. Currently, the Republicans have an edge in the number of states they control in the House, but that could change depending on how these races play out in the election. But if neither candidate could get to 26, they would have to keep voting until someone does.
However, the Senate is the branch that would determine the vice president in case of a tie. Unlike with the House where one state gets one vote, all 100 Senators get a vote, and the first to reach a majority 51 votes would become the VP.
An Unlikely Pairing
Interestingly enough, if the House cannot break the tie for president by Inauguration Day (January 20, 2025), the Senate-chosen vice president would become the acting president until the House finally breaks that tie. In this scenario, you could end up with a President and Vice President from different parties. The idea of Kamala Harris pairing with JD Vance or Trump with Tim Walz is fascinating, but don’t expect it to come to that.
The 2024 election may end up being historically close, but it’s still unlikely to produce a tie. But if it does, now you know what to expect next, and that’s why those House and Senate races are also very important.
