Many have argued that the debate for the vice president candidates does not move the needle on the US Election Odds. Based on the early results from 2024’s VP debate held on Tuesday night between Tim Walz and JD Vance, this appears to be true again.
In fact, the most surprising and commonly discussed outcome of this debate is that most Americans found they liked both candidates despite this being a heated campaign between the two parties. Both Vance and Walz saw their net favorability ratings soar after the debate on Tuesday night.
According to a CNN flash poll, 51% of voters believed Vance won the debate compared to 49% for Walz. A CBS poll found 42% for Vance, 41% for Walz, and 17% of respondents were not sure who won the close debate where both men showed a surprising amount of civility towards each other and even agreed on several topics. More than anything, the viewers were impressed with the refreshing sight of a civil debate.
Vance came off as more reasonable and less “weird” as Democrats have labeled him. Walz came off as relatable and someone who could garner bipartisan support to get things done if elected. That’s why the needle didn’t move much here in what could be the last major televised moment in this election before November 5.
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The Latest US Election Odds
Before the debate started on Tuesday night, Election Betting Odds gave Kamala Harris a 51.0% chance to win the election next month, which was down slightly from 51.5% a week ago. As of Thursday morning, Harris is down to 50.3% with Donald Trump at 48.8%, showing a slight lean towards Vance being the victor in the debate by the slimmest of margins.
Top-rated sportsbooks were giving Harris and Trump equal odds of -110 to win the election a week ago, and that more or less hasn’t changed at all after this debate. It’s still shaping up to be one of the closest in history. This just makes you wonder if these candidates should have pushed the other harder than they did Tuesday night.
| 2024 Presidential Candidate | Bet365 CA Betting Odds | Implied Win Probability | SportsInteraction CA Betting Odds | Implied Win Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamala Harris | -110 | 52.38% | -110 | 52.38% |
| Donald Trump | -110 | 52.38% | -110 | 52.38% |
Tim Walz Debate Performance Analysis
We knew going into the debate that Vance is a more experienced public speaker and debater than Walz, who was reportedly nervous going into Tuesday night. You could tell he was nervous during his first answer on the topic of Iran-Israel, which was not a well-delivered response by the Minnesota Governor.
Still, he calmed down and performed better the rest of the night. However, it was just odd that the candidate who largely got into this position as Harris’ running mate for calling Republicans ‘weird’ never used that word once in this debate. In fact, the only person to use ‘weird’ was Vance on two occasions. Walz also never brought up the “childless cat ladies” comment that Vance has used to refer to women without children.
The candidates said they agreed with each other no less than 10 times during the debate, and most of those were Walz saying he agreed with Vance on a topic. Agreeing that much with the guy you called ‘weird’ is, well, weird.
A Miss on Abortion
Walz had some good rebuttal lines to Vance on topics such as health care and gun control. However, he was not clear enough on abortion, especially when it came to refuting the claim that his Minnesota bill allows for abortion right up to 9 months, and that doctors are not doing anything to save babies who survive an abortion attempt and letting them die on the table, as has been reported by several news outlets.
When Vance directly asked Walz what he was wrong about there, all Walz said was that it wasn’t in the bill. To neutral observers and people who believe abortion should be legal but also should have some restrictions, this didn’t come off well for Walz.
However, Walz finished strong on the final topic about January 6 and upholding democracy, which did produce the biggest moment of the night as we’ll detail next in Vance’s recap.
JD Vance Debate Performance Analysis
Right from his first response in introducing himself to the country, you can tell JD Vance made it a point to be more civil and respectful in this debate to improve his likability. He did a good job at that all night, and he was clearly the more eloquent, polished speaker between the two. He also showed some accountability for past mistakes and personal disagreements with Trump, his running mate.
However, as the night wore on, you could see how Vance was dangerously tiptoeing a fine line between being logical and reasonable and appeasing his running mate.
Vance had the only real outburst and heated moment of the debate when he complained to the CBS moderators that they broke the rule of not fact-checking the candidates when they mentioned that Springfield, Ohio has many Haitian immigrants who have legal status after Vance made references to illegal aliens, a common attack point for him on the night.
After pointing out that CBS technically did break the fact-checking rules, Vance tried to argue the point before he was muted, causing a temporary disruption in the debate.
Vance Redirects to Democracy’s Future
Vance did not have a good debate on the subject of health care when he said that Trump helped the Affordable Care Act (ACA), otherwise known as Obamacare, when he was in office. Walz pointed out that Trump tried to get rid of it, and would have succeeded if not for a crushing vote by Republican Senator John McCain.
However, by far the moment of the night was the final topic about democracy and what happened on January 6. Vance was more interested in talking about the future, about next month’s election, and not relitigating the past. Instead, he tried to put Kamala Harris censoring Americans as a bigger threat to democracy than what happened with Trump on January 6.
This caused Walz to ask Vance directly about who won the 2020 election. Without that moment, Vance probably would have earned a more decisive debate victory. With that said, it clearly has not done any damage to his ticket’s chances next month. The voters who see the aftermath of the 2020 election as disqualifying for Trump were already not going to vote for him in November.
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