The stage is set for college football’s FBS national championship game between the Washington Huskies and Michigan Wolverines. Let’s check out the latest NCAAF odds and keep cashing our college football picks!
Picks Summary
- Washington +4.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Over 55.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Washington Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines
Monday, January 08, 2024 – 07:30 PM ET at NRG Stadium
Stat Trifecta
- Washington is 10-0 SU in their last 10 games.
- Washington is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games when playing as the underdog.
- The total has gone OVER in 8 of Michigan’s last 10 games.
Â
Huskies Escape Texas Rally
Despite all the second-guessing regarding the CFP committee’s top four seeds, it appears as though they got it exactly right. The No. 1 ranked Michigan Wolverines notched an overtime win over Alabama while No. 2 Washington escaped a late rally by the Texas Longhorns.
The late game of the CFP semifinals between the Huskies and Horns was a see-saw battle ending in a 21-21 tie at the half. But the second half belonged to Washington as they scored 13 unanswered points until Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers engineered a drive that culminated in a one-yard flare to Adonai Mitchell that narrowed the gap to six points.
A late 27-yard field goal by Washington kicker, Grady Gross, gave the Huskies a nine-point advantage before the Longhorns answered with a field goal of their own. But it was not enough as the Huskies claimed a 37-31 victory that punched their ticket to a national championship date against Michigan.
Washington also rewarded their backers, covering as 4-point underdogs as well as returning +135 on the moneyline for those who eschewed the points. It was the Huskies’ fifth outright win as an underdog dating back to last season.
Wolverines Remain Perfect
If you’re a college football fan, you watched a dandy on New Year’s Day when the pride of the SEC, Alabama, battled the Big Ten powerhouse from Michigan. However, if you put your money on the Tide, it was a bitterly disappointing ending considering Nick Saban’s boys were up by a touchdown with under five minutes remaining.
Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy mounted a late, game-tying drive from his own 25-yard line and continued to exploit Bama’s lack of short-range passing defenders who were pulled back to prevent the long ball. It took all of about three minutes for the Michigan offense to drive up the field, resulting in a four-yard toss from McCarthy to an open Roman Wilson in the end zone to tie the game.
The game would go into overtime as Michigan scored on their first possession, courtesy of a 17-yard run from Blake Corum. And the stingy Michigan defense, ranked No. 1 in the nation, allowing just 9.5 points per game, would stymie the Tide on its last gasp, bottling up Alabama’s elusive Jalen Milroe at the two-yard line to capture the victory.
High-Flying Offense
Washington boasts a high-flying offense whose success will be determined by how stout its offensive line will be able to protect its prolific passer, Michael Penix Jr. The Wolverines’ defense has registered 16 sacks over their last four games including six against the Crimson Tide on Monday in the CFP semifinal tilt.
However, the sledding won’t be easy for the Michigan pass rushers as the Huskies O-line has allowed only 11 sacks all season. And if Penix does have time in the pocket he will connect early and often. Washington owns the No. 1 ranked passing offense in the nation, averaging over 350 yards per contest.
These are two teams that thrive on being disrespected and overlooked. It’s a hard sell, considering both teams enter with perfect 14-0 records. Not surprisingly, the Huskies play their best when they are installed as underdogs, which was the case in three of their last four games.
Solid Underdogs
And wouldn’t you know it, the Huskies covered in all of those contests with outright victories over Oregon State (22-20 as 1-point road dogs), Oregon (34-31 as 9.5-point home dogs), and at a neutral site against Texas (37-31 as 4-point dogs). But the fourth victory wedged in-between was a 24-21 victory against Washington State in which the Huskies never even sniffed a cover as 16-point home chalk.
The Wolverines have a top-notch defense but if we consider how many points they have allowed in three of their last four games – excluding the game in which they faced an anemic Iowa offense – the Wolverines have surrendered an average of 22.6 points per game to Maryland, Ohio State, and Alabama.
The Pick
I realize Washington comes equipped with a good, albeit unspectacular defense, and will allow its fair share of points to a formidable Michigan offense. However, Michael Penix Jr. is an elite passer who will terrorize the Michigan defensive backs. He has the weapons surrounding him to score points in bunches as long as he remains upright, and in the pocket, as opposed to running to the edges if he is flushed out by the Michigan pass rush.
I look for a high-scoring game with Washington staying within the generous margins the oddsmakers are giving us.
NCAAF Pick: Washington +4.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
NCAAF Pick: Over 55.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
