Each week throughout the college football season, OddsTrader scours the college odds board and highlights three of the biggest potential upsets for that week’s NCAAF slate. These are underdogs that will not only cover the spread but are poised to pull the outright victory. Let’s check out the college odds board in Week 11 and keep cashing our tickets!
Picks Summary
- UCF ML (+115)Â
- New Mexico State ML (+170)Â
- Georgia Tech ML (+460)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. UCF Knights
Saturday, November 11, 2023 – 03:30 PM ET at FBC Mortgage Stadium
Stat Trifecta
- UCF is 6-1 SU in their last 7 games played in November.
- UCF is ranked 4th in the nation in rushing averaging 227.1 yards per game.
- Oklahoma State’s defense is ranked 103rd against the run, surrendering over 170 yards per game.
The last two stats in our stat trifecta will tell you most of what you need to know about this game. The Knights will control the pace and tempo of this game because they are all about the ground game and the Cowboys don’t want any of that smoke.
You can almost make the same argument for the Cowboys rushing attack versus a similarly anemic Knights run-stop unit, but if we are comparing ground games, UCF gets the nod.
We should also note that Oklahoma State is coming off a huge 27-24 win over Oklahoma in their annual Bedlam series that will be discontinued after this year with Oklahoma’s move to the SEC next season.
It was a seminal moment for the Cowboys, and this is shaping up as a proverbial trap game. There is just no way Oklahoma State can conjure the same enthusiasm for this contest and will likely come out flat. Grab the points and watch the home dog pull the mild upset.
NCAAF Pick: UCF +2 ½ (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
NCAAF Pick: UCF ML (+115) at Caesars Sportsbook
New Mexico State Aggies vs. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Saturday, November 11, 2023 – 03:30 PM ET at Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
Stat Trifecta
- New Mexico State is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games.
- New Mexico State is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games.
- Western Kentucky is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games against an opponent in the Independents (FBS) conference.
This looks like the sportsbooks have the wrong favorite in this game. The Aggies have been on a tear, winning 6 of their last 7 games and covering all of them. In their last outing, New Mexico State welcomed Middle Tennessee to Las Cruces and prevailed, 13-7, in a defensive struggle with the Aggies covering as 3-point home chalk.
The tale of this game will be told on the ground. The Aggies boast a ferocious rushing attack, ranked 15th in the nation, averaging over 204 yards per game. If New Mexico State is successful in imposing its will via their ground-and-pound attack, they will likely win this game outright as the markers will move and the clock will burn.
There is an excellent chance of this happening when considering Western Kentucky’s anemic run-stop unit ranks 128th against the run, surrendering over 218 yards per contest. But we know the Hilltoppers will counter through the air where they will have some success, but the imbalance of their rushing defense against the New Mexico State ground attack will be more than enough to get the Aggies a W here.
NCAAF Pick: New Mexico State +4½ (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
NCAAF Pick: New Mexico State ML (+170) at Caesars Sportsbook
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs. Clemson Tigers
Saturday, November 11, 2023 – 12:00 PM ET at Memorial Stadium
Stat Trifecta
- Georgia Tech is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on the road.
- Georgia Tech is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against an ACC opponent.
- Clemson is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games.
Georgia Tech has won and covered three of their last four games against the likes of Miami, UNC, and Virginia last week. In terms of offense, the Yellow Jackets are superior to the Tigers in three major statistical offensive categories: points per game (33.2 vs. 31.7), passing yards (261.2 vs. 242.3), and rushing yards (204.1 vs. 159.7).
Naturally, there is a counterbalance to those numbers and it all revolves around defense – Clemson has it while Georgia Tech doesn’t. That’s the reason this line is what it is but is this Clemson iteration championship timber and are they worth spotting a conference rival equipped with a capable offense north of two touchdowns?
I say no, and although Georgia Tech may come up short of an outright win, they are getting more points than they should because Clemson has street cred and they don’t. Let’s fade the public and back the dog.
NCAAF Pick: Georgia Tech +14½ (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
NCAAF Pick: Georgia Tech ML (+460) at Caesars Sportsbook
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
